MEANWHILE, IN EUROPE…June 3, 2011
As we reach the end of this week, it would do well to notice another player in the realignment I've been sketching, the realignment that sees an unusual coalescence of China, Russia, Brazil, and India, the so-called BRIC powers. That player is, you guessed it, Germany. Ponder this article slowly and carefully, for it is a microcosm of why the post-war world that the US A so carefully crafted is coming to an end, and with it, the way of life we have become accustomed to in this country, unless our policy, and our leadership, become sane:
While the article exaggerates - Germany, for example, no less than the other European nations - has effectively been bankrupted by the banksters , and it lacks the population base and strategic depth to be considered a true superpower - it is nonetheless true that Germany's economy is largely export driven (and in that respect almost as large as China's), and that Germany did wisely forecast the realignment we're currently witnessing, and tailored that export business to Eastern Europe, Russia, China, Brazil, and India. It is also true that Germany has been less and less visible in support of NATO policies, often going its own route with rapprochements with Russia and Poland, for example. Amid all this, Chancellorin Merkel has pursued a notably nationalist policy, more or less distancing Berlin from the EU, when it is convenient to do so.
The article also notes that Germany, like other countries, is facing a backlash from its easy immigration policies, policies in part driven by the fact that Germany's enormous economy is simply too large for ethnic Germans to sustain (not unless they "get busy" and create more ethnic Germans). This fact goes a long way, too, to argue that it's far too early to pronounce a resurgent Germany as a new mini-superpower.
There is a final consideration, an unpleasant one but nonetheless an essential one in any bean-counter's reckoning of superpower status, namely, Germany is not - publicly at least - a known thermonuclear power; it has no hydrogen bombs; France, however, does. There is, of course, the possibility that such weapons were developed covertly and through proxies (South Africa and Israel), and this, indeed, is the view to which I adhere, though not strongly. On other measures of military power, Germany is of course one of about ten nations that can project significant military power to any point on the globe, if it chooses to do so. And, of course, Germany has its hands on its own version of HAARP-like technology.
So while it's in my opinion too early to declare the country a new mini-superpower - and therefore I must take issue with the venerable Christian Science Monitor - it is a far cry from the pliant post-war Cold War state it once was, and thus, accordingly, its own moves, especially vis-a-vis the realignment taking place currently, must be watched closely. Clearly its economic alignment with the BRIC nations while the rest of Europe flounders in the obsolescent geopolitical backwash of London and New York signals a significant break with NATO and EU commitments. It remains to be seen if Germany will be able to bring the rest of Europe with it, and break free of those factions that sought since the days of the Kaiser to rein in German power, a power that, as Zbigniew Brzezinski himself has noted, was the premier preoccupation of 20th century geopolitics, from 1914, t0 1994.