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THE RUSSIAN MORTAR IN THE BRICS: A PERSPECTIVE ON MOSCOW’S ...

Underestimating Russia and the Russians appears to be a periodic and habitual sickness of the West, and it is usually paid for by the complete unwinding of the best laid plans and plots.

We all know the story of Napoleon's disastrous campaign in 1812, the disaster a year later at the Battle of the Five Armies at Leipzig, the eventual ruin of the French Empire and its Italian Emperor. Then of course there was the world's biggest military campaign with Hitler's invasion of the country in 1941, which was going quite nicely until the over-confident Hitler thought he could afford last-minute modifications to a carefully worked out logistical plan in August of that year. We know the rest of the story... the German armies stalled at the very outskirts of Moscow in the dead of one of the severest winters on record, the spires of the Kremlin within sight. Spurning little known-peace offerings from Stalin in 1942, Hitler paid the price of his arrogance. Four years later, Russian tanks were rumbling through the rubble of Berlin. Kaiser Wilhelm II fared somewhat better, actually forcing a Russian surrender in march of 1918, and (for those who think Versailles was "harsh"), placing the Baltic states and the entire breadbasket of Europe, under German military occupation. the Bolsheviks and Lenin, however, had calculated correctly; they could afford the short term surrender, knowing full well that Germany was on the verge of collapse herself, and, should her summer offensives in the West fail(as they just barely did), no German armies in the East would be able to digest their new found conquests. Earlier efforts in history fared no better. Swedish King Carl XII commanded, at the time, Europe's finest military machine, and decided to "go a-conquering" in the East. He did no better than Napoleon after him.

What emerges from this is one salient fact and feature: the Russians are willing to trade territory for time, in an intricate geopolitical game of playing one faction within the constellation of forces opposing them, against another. And from the Russian perspective, their biggest opponents, their greatest long-term foes, have been London, and London's child: Washington. The Russians well know the roll that covert operations and economic warfare played during the "end game" of the demise of the Soviet Union; they know the whole sordid history of the empty promises from the USA that NATO would not be extended into the former Soviet republics, promises that not only were ignored, but egregiously so, as Western-backed covert operations were mounted in the "color" revolutions to bring the Ukraine into the European alliance system, and to bring the latter to within easy tactical distance from Moscow itself. The Russians well know the looting of their country that began under Yeltsin.

And... since Putin, have been taking distinct, clear, calculated steps to rollback the West, without appearing to have any long term strategy or plan to do so. It is that perception of the lack of a long range plan and strategy that Russia is banking on, and that the West shows no real signs, at least at the common public level, of understanding. I mentioned yesterday Mr. Putin's very carefully chosen and deliberate use of the South Ossetia affair in 2008 to undermine a Brzezinski-inpired plan to wrest the oil-rich and strategically important trans-Caucuses region from the last vestiges of Moscow's influence. That plan backfired. Bigtime. Western proxies (Germany) were caught red-handed in shady arms transactions, and a Western-sponsored nutcase in Georgia was militarily reminded that, while the West talked big games, Moscow, and not the West, had the tanks in the region.

Prior to South Ossetia, we had Mr. Putin stationing Russian warships in Venezuela permanently, as a warning against noises of American intervention against the government of Mr. Hugo Chavez.

Then came the Syrian diplomatic defeat for the West, and  the Russian leader's direct appeal to the American oligarchy via Mr. Putin's open letter in The New York Times. The letter was significant, not just for the fact that it was the first time a Russian leader had appealed directly to a moral consensus in the West (the last time anything similar was done was the Tsar sending the Russian fleet to the Union during the America Civil War... a little message to France and Britain to rethink their open backing of the Confederacy). What was unique about Mr. Putin's letter was its very clear use of his moral standing in the West, and of the West's own public opinion, against the policy Fuehrerbefehlen of Mr. Obama and his policy wonks and advisors.

And yesterday, of course, I wrote about the clear signs that the era of Russian "diplomatic flabbiness" was drawing to a close. Rather, it's been closing since South Ossetia, and Mr. Putin has used every diplomatic opportunity he can to signal to the West that its rollback and encirclement policies are simply unacceptable.

Now, here comes another hint of what is going on:

RUSSIAN DEFENSE EXPERT PREDICTS US DEFEAT IN US-CHINA CONFLICT CA 2020

Now, while the military and operational language of the article may be a bit unclear to a layman, the strategic parameters are clear. To put it in context, Russia, and Mr. Putin, it will be recalled, were the driving forces in the formation of the Shanghai accords between Russia and China, a framework which was deliberately intended to be, and which in fact did become, the basis of an even greater realignment of powers fed up with Anglo-American dominance: the BRICS, or as I like to call them, the BRICSA nations.

The geopolitical game here is one that British and American geopolitical strategists should recognize, but alas, there is little in their public organs and media to indicate that they do(though one cannot say what is going on behind their closed conspiratorial doors at their CFR, Trilateral Commission, Bilderberg, or Royal Institute of International Affairs meetings).  Russia, now, is not powerful enough on her own, to challenge that Anglo-American hegemony. In terms of the oldest measure of strategic power, population, she simply cannot do so, being half the size of the American population(and hence, Mr. Putin's domestic policies aimed at increasing the Russian birthrate). The other traditional measure of geopolitical power - strategic depth, or sheer landmass - Russia has plenty of, but inadequate population density to defend it adequately, much less directly challenge the USA.

It is Britain's problem of the nineteenth century, in reverse. And in that situation, Russia is playing Britain's nineteenth century game, and playing it every bit as well as the British played it: avoiding direct open confrontation, but not shrinking from sudden sharp applications of military and/or economic force and power when necessary. And building up another power that does have the population to be a threat, and that also has the strategic depth to do so: China.  The "China card" was the long-term dagger that was used by the Anglo-American oligarchy to unwind the Communist world and undo the Soviet Union... but that hand was played out, and the cards have been redealt. And this time, it is Russia playing the China card.

Remember that, the next time Frau Merkel takes her entire Federal Cabinet to China to talk "trade," because chances are, the fuel that got her there didn't come from Saudi Arabia, but from Russia. And it wasn't the vast brutal cultural wasteland of the Middle East that she flew over to get there, nor were the ships and railroads to conduct that lucrative China-Germany trade plowing through the Middle Eastern  backwater... It was Russia.

And Russia is once again playing a very long term game of geopolitics and strategy, a new "collection of the Russian lands." Next step? watch Kazakhstan and the central Asian "republics," and their relationships to Moscow very closely.

See you on the flip side.

33 thoughts on “ THE RUSSIAN MORTAR IN THE BRICS: A PERSPECTIVE ON MOSCOW’S ...”

  1. Thank you Dr Farrell, for this blog.

    Your previous one on the Daily Bell’s version of how international affairs were playing out had me rather concerned.

    It appears you are still of the opinion that there are different “sides” playing their games, but thankfully not an overarching one world order policy that will engulf the entire world.

    I see Putin as a nationalist (in the Tsarist manner) who does not intend for the western oligarchs to implement their NWO successfully.

    I found the Daily Bell’s theory fascinating and disturbing and I’ve been waiting to hear more from you regarding Putin’s motives.

    So again, thank you.

  2. OFF TOPIC:

    Anyone who is of the opinion that quite a bit of “modern physics” is pure fantasy, should get a new “dissident physics” book: THE HIGGS FAKE by Alexander Unzicker (yes, a German).

    He is a real physicist complaining about “particle physics.” To be fair, I don’t think he specializes in particle physics.

    If you are satisfied with mainstream physics, you will not like this book. This guy does not hide his contempt.

    1. His dissent is not radical (for instance, he still lionizes Einstein and Bohr). His complaint is strictly post WWII particle physics.

      If even half of what he says is even remotely correct (which I suspect it is), the critique is pretty substantial.

  3. Also in 2020, tragedy struck the White House when the straps lowering Chelsea Clinton’s stud horse snapped and the 2000 pound animal crashed on the insatiable President’s daughter causing severe injuries. After waiting several days for a sympathy bounce in the polls to lift her flailing Presidential campaign, the unpopular President decided to announce a consumer debt jubilee, and has promised absolution for all credit card debt, if she is re-elected. While the twitter announcement from her campaign headquarters has sent financial markets into a tail spin and fierce condemnation from the banking sector, President Hillary has responded by arresting the CEOs of all major banks and as well as Fed board members. This bold last minute ploy to cancel credit card debt has helped her in the polls to some degree but there is still some concern with voters about the massive war with China that is not being reported by the media or discussed publicly in DC but is having its effect none the less as Chinese missiles reign in on the US killing thousands daily.

    Hillary will be off the campaign trail for a day in order to attend the funeral at Arlington National Cemetery for Chelsea’s stud horse who was also an active member of the US Senate and stalwart ally of the President. The horse was appointed to the Senate by President Clinton after the horse’s Senate predecessor was arrested for treason for voting against Ms. Clinton on some very important legislation. The President will return to the campaign trail later in the week to attend a rally of her Hillary Youth in Chicago and encourage them to maintain their vigilance in the Homeland’s war against domestic traitors, terrorists and food hoarders. Chelsea Clinton continues to recover from her injuries from the President’s Swiss White House on Lake Geneva.

    1. Also, Dr. Farrell, I want to point out a typo in the above blog. You stated Napoleon was the “Italian Emperor” of the French Empire. I think you meant to say: Corsican Emperor. Aside from writing the first Constitution, which may have influenced the writers of the American Constitution, the only other thing we Corsicans have to hang our hat on is our favorite son who conquered most of Europe. It seems the only thing people know us for nowadays is our brazen bullion robberies, our mercenary political assassinations, and our historic role in the heroin trade.

        1. It is not in my nature to be speechless, therefore I can only respond by starting a rumor that the Corsican gardener snuck into Napoleon’s mother’s bedroom while father Bonaparte was away in France.

          But if you really want to nitpick:

          “Ironically for a French Emperor and proud Corsican, Napoléon I carried paternal DNA that is most typical of the so-called Moors. The haplogroup E1b1b1c1—defined by mutation M34—was found at its highest concentration in Ethiopia and in the Near East…”

          http://www.geocurrents.info/population-geography/genetics/napoleon-bonaparte-frenchman-corsican-italian-or-moor-and-the-last-of-the-romanovs

          So Napoleon’s genetic origins are in the east? Do all roads lead to Babylon? Something tells me Dr. Farrell you may know something about the Bonaparte family that may make it into a sequel of the “Babylon Banksters.”

    2. Frankie, our beloved Catherine the Great died trying to mount her favorite stud horse. How could you be so insensitive especially around a Russian based blog?

  4. hey, Dr. Farrell, wow, fascinating insights on your part (I really wish you had the time to write a comprehensive world history book!)-

    “Next step? watch Kazakhstan and the central Asian “republics,” and their relationships to Moscow very closely”- as I blogged a short while back my very dear, svelte Russian co-worker (from Kazakhstan) told me a few months ago that most of the elite Russian intelligentsia has been relocated to…Kazakhstan- but it was presented to the Russian general public as a “banishment”- hmmm…

    “the next time Frau Merkel takes her entire Federal Cabinet to China to talk “trade,”- Frau Merkel is now trying to recover from a broken pelvis ring sustained almost a week ago in a cross country skiing accident in Switzerland (ohh, those persnickety Swiss again) and if the reports are true she had to cancel her trip to…China-

    another aspect to consider in the sumo wrestling geopolitical game of power: as Douglas Dietrich has always stated: “you can’t believe the incompetence of the US Dept. of Defense”-

    then enter Gary McKinnon and his testamonies about how easy it was to crack into the PC system of the US Dept. of Defense- he stated even the Chinese were snooping in there as well-

    yet another aspect; if one has read Greg Hallett’s “Hitler Was a British Agent,” Hallett stated (fasten your seat belt) Stalin had a nervous breakdown after the merciless N**i invansion and one of the Harriman brothers (Avrill?) was flown in to steer Russia in his place… (!!!)-

    if, IF true (truly big “IF”), could it be that it wasn’t Stalin who made the peace offering but Harriman?- I don’t know- but nothing would surprise me anymore- I guess one just has to read GH’s book and then make up one’s own mind-

    please continue to be well Dr. Farrell and all readers-

    Larry in Germany

    1. @ Larry: As far as I recall, that is true. Sorge had successfully warned the Soviets of the Unternehmung Barbarossa plans and even, if I recall correctly, of the window when the attack was to begin, but Stalin for whatever reason refused to believe it, even though he had the Red Army deployed unusually. The German generals noted, after the invasion had begun, that the Russian forces were deployed in a manner that could bu used both defensively and offensively. Stalin, as I recall, did suffer some sort of breakdown and went into a drunken stupor. Why? No one seems to know but my guess is that the pace of the German advance was so fast and the Russian losses were so extraordinary (and they really were… the Wehrmacht was literally liquidating the Red Army) that as Soviet C&C collapsed and appeals were made to Stalin directly, he simply couldn’t handle it, much less keep pace with it. Marshal Timoshenko/STAVKA had precious few resources with which to stem the tide in July 1941.

      1. Sorge was not a key figure in informing Soviet authorities that Hitler’s invasion will start on 22nd. There were all kinds of intelligence reports from 10th of June and later till 22nd. For example Soviet informers in German light industry reported that were made order to produce 5 millions spoons in the beginning of June. Germans already knew they will get many warprisoners.
        Another Soviet informer was a middle railroad manager in Germany. He was ordered on the 14th of June to be in Minsk at 6th of July and become in charge of Belorussian railroad. He reported that to his curators in Moscow. This kind of information collected on the Stalin’s table. Stalin was good informed. Intelligence structures were submitting to him. And today it is clear that on 18th of June Stalin gave order to Red Army’s heads(generals Zhukov and Timoshenko) to “be in combat readiness”. In army’s language this means that 20-50% of soldiers must be awake and ready to start a fight. This order was not carried out. But border guards and NKVD armies were ready for the German invasion, because there chiefs were not in the Red Army, the chief of these forces was Beria(who was killed 3 months after Stalin’s murder in 1953).
        There are two versions what really happened with Stalin on the beginning of war. 1)he was assassinated somewhere on 18th-21st of June(after giving orders Red Army to prepare for war) and was recovering till 26th. 2)He was staying in Kremlin and working as usually. The version that Stalin “did suffer some sort of breakdown and went into a drunken stupor” or was lost and frustrated came out after his murder in many generals and marshals memoirs in second half of the 1950s.
        On the 28th of June Stalin send Zhukov and Timoshenko away from Moscow to the fronts to take in charge groups of armies. After Franz Halder stated in his memoirs that on the 4th-6th of July Red Army had first well prepared movements and actions that caused first huge German losses.

  5. While reading the linked article, this headline kept crawling along the bottom of the page: “Khodorkovsky pays short visit to Israel – spokeswoman.” How ironic.

    Anyway, the emphasis here is on Russia and I think your analysis is spot-on; Putin is a master of the game and has been checking the US across the chessboard. But what is hair-raising is the prospect of a war with China–and the enablers both of China’s rise and the US’s decline are none other than the Bush cabal. One wonders just who they owe their allegiance to, in the end, if anyone other than themselves.

    China is knocking the stilts out from under the petrodollar one by one and no amount of 3D printing is going to bring back the US without the dollar’s continuing stranglehold as the world’s de facto reserve currency. The US economy has entered the realm of Hollywood blockbuster Fantasyland and everyone pretends to believe the fairy tales as the Fed prints the billions that loft the stock market to unimagined hieghts while further endebting posterity.

    And now Japan, stricken by Fukishima, claims 280 islets as a provocation to China (–hari kari, anyone?) The ultimate irony here is that the US created contemporary China, and now is paying the price. What idiots. And they expected to rule the world with their globalist lies?

    What a mess.

  6. Messages being sent is a lot better than bombs and rockets being sent, we should be thankful for that, but the silent war goes on. You just have to wonder about the elites in London,New York and D.C. about their mental capability?
    The Russians are not going to roll over and play dead, and the upcoming winter Olympic games should be watched closely. These games are an absolute bulls eye for some sort of event that “MAY” implicate the involvement of Russia. The west must be salivating over what could happen at these games, and ALL THE WORLDS MEDIA WILL BE THERE.

    So buckle up, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

    1. I think you’re right, Downunder-

      but then a lot of hideously nefarious activity was predicted for the London Olympics and none of it panned out, thank God (despite all of the blatantly Satanic symbolism in all of the ceremonies)- let’s hope any dubious plans for the Sochi Olympics will be thwarted as well- will be curious to see if the same continued Satanic symbolism in the ceremonies unfolds Slavic-style-

      stay well-

      Larry

  7. Why should we be surprised the garrison troops that control the Americas are descended from the scum of Europe. Thugs really and stupid to boot we are dealing with smash and grab low level crooks. They speak with forked tongues and will stab their benefactors in the back at a moment notice. And these fools are dealing with two nations who have a long history of waiting out their enemies and kicking them in holes in the ground when they fall.

  8. This is a great blog today. I loved this line: ” the Russians are willing to trade territory for time …”

    whoa! Are the Russians using the topological metaphor as a conversion tool between Some-thing like “real estate” and a No-Thing like “Time” ???

    😀

  9. Sagnacity,

    Webster Tarpley has written extensively on Russia and the Civil war. Go to his website tarpley.net and you will see a posted C-Span presentation on this very subject. The short of it Russian ships were in the harbor of New York and also in California/SF.

    It’s been a policy of the Oligarchy in America and the United Kingdom to keep this history away from the populations in order to use this wedge to divide Russia and the US and keep the war machine rolling in their favor. Tarpley really gives a very detailed historical scenario.

  10. DanaThomas:

    Thanks, but the link doesn’t link that specific purported quotation.

    I’d like to see the specific document and anything else that backs it up.

    Yes, possibly Stalin made the offer, but…

      1. D:

        That that’s very interesting, but then Tarpley needs to explain where he read this publication called the “Independent” and here I note the recounted disclosure is 40 years after the fact.

        Tarpley also acts as if Russian navel forces in New York and San Fran in 1862-63 are established fact, here again he needs to provide a source, which all goes to my original point.

        Not saying it didn’t happen, just provide sources ideally contemporaneous accounts of more than a few Russian navel vessels in New York or SF.

        Don’t forget to document the Tsar’s 1862 fleet too.

    1. Sorry at the moment I don’t have either of those books but I believe that copies can be downloaded. Memoirs like those of Goebbels and Ribbentrop have long had poor consideration among historians and have to be read with a view to self-serving intentions; corroboration is needed.
      Could there be something by Russian historians on this topic? Or is this still a “taboo” subject in Moscow??

  11. The traditional Russian policy of being willing to trade off on territorial issues is in sharp contrast with the American East India Company which – perhaps anachonistically given the Space factor – is hanging on to its chain of bases with tooth and claw.
    Like the British did and, to a limited extent, are still trying to do (ironically they are creating a cordon sanitaire around US bases in the UK, against those dastardly tent-pitching protestors and dog-walkers: see http://youtu.be/GkLrgWOw1y0 ) .
    This is starting to look like the old International Concessions in China, and we know what happened to them!

  12. Just to clarify:

    Where did the Tsar’s fleet go during the American Civil War? Is there a book on the subject?

    And what did Stalin offer the Nazis in 1942? Again is there a book on the subject?

    Not reflecting on the idiocy of US policy toward China, but that linked Voice of Russia article doesn’t seem to imagine other weapons, or energy sources, or communications methods. It’s standard closed system thinking.

    1. From http://www.ww2f.com:
      “I was rather surprised to read that Stalin had his representative in Stockholm offer separate peace negotiations in December 1942 and again in summer 1943 culminating in definite proposal in September 1943.

      Source is claimed as Goebbels Tagebucher 1942-43 p 392 and Zwischen London und Moskau p 265.

      The basic offer from Russia was restoration of 1914 borders and economic ties.

      It is beleived that Stalin was concerned that the West was waiting in the wings for Russia and Germany to exhaust each other and then to step in scoop up the spoils.

      Hitler apparently turned down the offers flat – told Goebbels he was only prepared to negotiated after an emphatic victory.”

      1. Good point.
        Like the Banksters/Venetians keeping two sets of books. Could treaties be two? One for public consumption. One that the public would have a revolution overnight, if the public were awakened.
        Napolean referrenced/ Beware the Dragon when she awakens. Perhaps, one could imagine, a world in which the people awaken as one. A very forminable Dragon indeed; and in terms of a viable & healthy living Earth, …in need.

      2. I recall a somewhat different offer, though I seem to recall Goebbels mentioning it as well. But the peace offer I recall was that Stalin effectively offered a restoration of the 1918 Treaty of Brest-Litovsk terms, with a border running roughly from the Baltic states through the middle of the Pripyat, and then down the Dnieper River, German territory to include the Ukraine west of that River. return of Bessarabia to Romania, etc.

    2. As I recall Sag, the Russian fleet(s) were sent both to the California coast (San Francisco) and the East Coast, New York and Boston if I remember correctly. When I taught Diplomatic History of the U.S., this was mentioned in the textbook I was required to use (don’t remember the title) and also in the British History textbook I was required to use to teach that class (don’t remember the title of that book either, sorry).

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