Conspiracy Theater

PREDICTIVE ALGORITHMS, COVERT ACTION, AND GEOPOLITICS

This article came to me from a regular reader here, Mr. V.T., and I think you will see why it made the final cut, once you see what it's about:

Illuminati Software For Enslavement: This algorithm can predict a revolution

Viewed through the lenses of High Octane Speculation, there is so much about the implications of this that disturb, one scarcely knows where exactly to begin. As most readers here know, I've advanced all along the hypothesis that the NSA's electronic eavesdropping is as much about (1) finance and (2) sociological pattern modelling(and hence, about prediction) as it is about (3) security from "terrorism". The fact that this is being done in a university research lab suggests that we are looking at the tip of an iceberg, that we are looking at research being conducted in a limited area and orchestrated by hidden hands within the black projects community, who will apply whatever results are obtained secretly, and tweak the process, if it has not already done so.

Why this would be of special concern to such black projects gurus is immediately evident: if, for example, a predictive algorithm could be extended both in its accuracy, and in the lead time of its prediction, appropriate responses can be planned, either to ameliorate or exacerbate the conditions being detected, and steering or channeling such activity accordingly.

But this in turn invokes another, equally disturbing possibility, namely, that such algorithms become, in effect, feedback loops on themselves, predicting behaviors that are the inevitable result of such covert responses, a kind of computerized and statistical version of self-fulfilling prophecies.

However, this is a still further implication, namely, that such predictive algorithms could also conceivably begin to function as the ultimate in "plausible deniability." What do I mean by this?

The idea is fairly simple. Say one wishes to conduct covert operations in destabilizing a government friendly to another government that one doesn't like(think of the Ukraine and Russia here). One could do so with some assurance of "deniability" if all the predictive algorithms said that such and such a country was "ripe for revolution." In the face of denunciations from other nations, one could produce the statistics and algorithms... the mathematics - for a scientismist age - would be convincing: "We had nothing to do with it; it is merely the inevitable consequence of a constellation of factors..."  In other words, such predictive algorithms would be a virtual wet dream for the grandiose philosophies and ideologies of history such as Hegelianism or Marxism.

All of which brings us back to the sheer size and scale of that NSA facility in Utah, for the size and scale of that computing power suggest to my mind, and suggest it very strongly, that such large scale algorithmic prediction is already under way. After all, if one maintains that the real function of the spying is motivated by financial and market concerns, then this implies that the primary component of that capability is social network modeling and predictive algorithms.

See you on the flip side...

 

46 thoughts on “PREDICTIVE ALGORITHMS, COVERT ACTION, AND GEOPOLITICS”

  1. Origens Child, the assumptions in the power transition model which Jacek Kugler ran on the World Bank in 2004 are on page 22 of http://kahudes.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/board-of-governors.pdf My 2007 letter warning the Treasury Department that the US would lose its leadership at the World Bank is on page 16. You can see that I totally missed that the Mainstream Media was part of the problem. Indeed, the Mainstream Media, owned by this group, http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1107/1107.5728v2.pdf has yet to run the first article about my disclosure of corruption at the heart of the international financial system. Jacek Kugler’s model that the US was going to lose the leadership of the world is at http://citation.allacademic.com//meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/0/7/4/2/7/pages74272/p74272-1.php The biggest risks are fuzzy thinking, obfuscation, and continued cover-up. Why did Twitter break the link to Jacek Kugler’s power transition model three times?

  2. This would be a good article if it weren’t for the fact that the “predictive algorithms” do not require large computing power and are well-known political science tools. The power transition model which Jacek Kugler brought to the World Bank in 2004, and which I discussed with Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel in 2008 when he was Senator of Nebraska, https://s3.amazonaws.com/khudes/lss.pdf is very useful in showing how the Vatican has been trying secretly to dismantle US military strength. I told the Department of Defense Inspector General to reinstate Major General Micael Cary, Commander or the 20th Air Force, and Vice Admiral Tim Giardina, who prevented a nuclear device from detonating over Charleston, South Carolina on October 8, 2013:
    https://s3.amazonaws.com/khudes/dodinspectorgeneral.docx
    Your reader is either sadly misinformed, or a shill using scare-tactics and hokum. I am surprised you fell for it, Mr. Farrell. http://philosophyofmetrics.com/2014/02/18/sdrs-and-the-new-bretton-woods-part-six/comment-page-1/#comment-584

    1. I’ve listened to you on several videos and they were extremely informative, and more importantly – passionate.
      I heard about the Charleston incident and others, where the patriots stepped-up to the plate – sometime with their lives.

    2. As a well educated person you should be aware addressing someone who holds a doctorate as Mr. Farrell rather Dr. Farrell is disparaging – perhaps that is the point. Information is always open to interpretation so opinions or speculations differing from yours aren’t necessarily indicative of a person being “sadly misinformed”. Ideas can even be explored for amusement or inductive reasoning.

    3. I always thought the shadow govt. had their “model” built and deployed long ago with the Technical Manual TW-SW7905.1

      The need for predictive algorithms came about when the markets abandoned the fractional system of pricing equities etc. and changed over to the decimal system with a totally electronic control hub in Chicago where their servers can be co-located and gain mechanical advantage due to proximity of the algorithmic HFT equipment. There were bigger(and more frequent) profits to “clip” from the ‘Muppets’ and bagholders addicted to the new style of the digitized casino…which also had the advantage of providing quicker access to everyone else’s shares via the DTCC.

      (The end of price discovery mechanisms, while simultaneously providing a large pool of suckers and their, waiting to be fleeced capital…all locked in a derivatives warehouse where OPP is illusory and gets loaned out to the usual suspects that enjoy using the capital of others to front-run and steal their way to prosperity)

      disclaimer: this is my personal speculation

    4. Dr. Farrell started this blog with the admission of high octane speculation—but one grounded in historical analysis based on texts and a sense of history from many different academic areas. He never claimed omniscience and omnipresence. If in your passion and insight you have inadvertently cast a shadow on any participation in this type of analysis, please reconsider your opinion and look carefully at what HE IS saying. The problem may be the one of perspective–and his may have been missed.

      Ms. Hudes, I respect your work. Because of your position at the World Bank you may have a different perspective. You have access to some of the models he may be discussing here—and these may not require a lot of computing power. The computing power requirements are directly related to the complexity of the model in view. We are not privy to the data you possess and the model results you have seen—but some of us are wary to trust them blindly. A faulty or incomplete model could very well lead you down a false trail and significantly impair your judgment. After many uses the model may yield statistically valid responses. Yet the question remains, how can you be sure the results for this iteration are right? With enough torque the best wrench can break.

      Please be patient with us and help us where our understanding may be deficient. But at the same time, please be careful with these tools. Among software engineers, and their customers, there is the possibility of collective group think and false assumptions when the problem in view is not strictly based on hard-scientific calculations and algorithms. The problems Dr. Farrell is imagining are not well defined. For this class of problems the risks are very high.

      Kind regards.
      Origen’s Child

    5. Hudes,

      In my estimation, a good predictive algorithm would require tremendous computing power because it would be scanning all social media, email exchanges, etc across the globe to find spikes in key words and phrases and would also have to have the computing power to circumvent all kinds of internet security systems. Something on the scale of the NSA and its computing power. Hardly something that could be accomplished by the computers in a college political science department. Sadly, these kind of feeble predictive algorithms that you herald rely, for the most part, on the data fed to it be human data processors–mostly college kids. I know, I was one of these students.

      One evening while working carelessly at my computer inputing data, on a lark, I misleadingly fed information to my computer that there were 170,000 tons of gold in the Bank of Hawaii. Thankfully this fraudulent information went nowhere. Who would believe it? On another occasion, while drunk, stoned, and bitterly angry at my professor for assigning me this dreadfully boring task, I fed into my computer that the Vatican was trying to disarm the US military by using Jesuit hackers to alter the predictive algorithms used by the Pentagon and make them think there was no longer any external threats to the United States, thereby causing the Pentagon to let its guard down and reduce military spending. Good thing nobody took this hopelessly flawed information from our political science department seriously. I also once inputted into my computer that a nuke was about to go off over South Carolina but a patriotic military officer saved the day. I think I had just got done watching some Hollywood blockbuster of the same theme, only in this movie it was a disgruntled banker who tipped him off and who actually saved the eastern seaboard. While this all my seem horribly reckless and juvenile, you can only imagine how boring it was, night after night, inputting random data about the number of breast implant operations in Bulgaria or the spending habits of transvestites in Indonesia, ad nauseam. The tedium was maddening.

      My only real fear was that my pranks would spread like a virus into the predictive algorithms of other political science department computers and the false information would take on a life of its own. What if at this moment some Nazi bank robbers are planning to rob the bank of Hawaii because they think there is 170,000 tons of gold in there? What if Pope Benedict was deposed because the Pentagon thought he was tampering with their computers? Could some bored, irresponsible data processor such as myself, munching on hash brownies night after night at my college minimum wage job really have such far reaching impact? Its hard to imagine people would be so gullible and fall for such codswallop. But that just may be the achilles heel of predictive algorithms. Its reliance on data input from that unreliable, hopelessly defective pig-chimpanzee cross we know as homo sapiens.

  3. Good point about the plausible deniability idea, Dr. Farrell. Knowing some in Congress, they are sure to try it. To this I would say let them try to their peril!

    Many people will buy the argument unfortunately. We must remind everyone within our sphere of influence that at the end of the day, computer algorithms and software results are no more than tools. AI systems can make fancy predictions out of mountains of data by dense statistical models—true. But we should not allow the policy maker the luxury of blamelessness when the algorithm recommends bad policy. One can try to blame the gun for shooting one’s self or love one—but the blame belongs with the person who actually pulled the trigger. The best the AI system can do is offer advice through predictions. It’s the policy maker who is responsible for the policy based on those predictions—and the praise or blame that accompanies it. When the policy inflicts tremendous damage on a nation, the policy maker should pay with impeachment and imprisonment. More than likely the guilty will be rewarded—but the point is to make it possible for them to only play this card once.

  4. These data hounds are fundamentally spoiled brats – spoiled by having been given more money and power than they know how to gainfully deploy. Megalomanic schemes like this always end in disaster as the managers get eaten from the inside out by their own paranoia and isolation. True, they can cause a lot of trouble for us in the meantime, but finally they collapse or become their own worst enemies. We have to remember how essentially crazy these people are. Craziness always defeats itself even if it takes way too long.

  5. A new book is coming out that gets down & dirty into this “predictive” technology:
    The Word Exchange by Alena Graedo coming March 1, 2014
    The plot ponders where our unthinking reliance on technology gadgets – will lead us.

    1. The Graedon novel: “In the not-so-distant future, the forecasted ‘death of print’ has become a reality. Bookstores, libraries, newspapers and magazines are a thing of the past, as we spend our time glued to handheld devices called Memes that not only keep us in constant communication, but have become so intuitive as to hail us taxis before we leave our offices, order takeout at the first growl of a hungry stomach…” (c/o TheBookDepository)

    2. Also of note is an article in this month’s Harper’s: Chronicle of a Death Foretold/Predicting murder on Chicago’s South Side by Monte Reel. Consultants from MIT and the University of Chicago developed algorithms using: juvenile-detention reports, attendance records and test scores (schools), plus various cops on-the-beat data, gangs; steering all this and other “Big Data with about 60 million dollars over two years toward a new, data-driven violence-reduction strategy. They developed the predictive model.
      Then they assign “mentors” to high-risk students at 15,000 dollars per student annually.
      Now Peter knows where Paul got all that money & why the budget for crime & schools are being cut to the bone.
      All this time & money spent, to finally get the answer:
      A Crystal Ball.

  6. There is more going on in this universe than we can ever imagine. The scientists don’t know ANYTHING about ANYTHING, they’re just guessing. The ancients knew, they knew how it worked and how it was created, and these software boffins are just “testing”.

    Don’t forget, “observation isn’t explanation”, so trying to screw around with nature can have dire consequences, in other words “BEWARE”.

  7. There is also that “other”. Beyond the poisonous mixture of Taylorism and Stakhnovism, laced with 21st Century IT, a pervasive meanness & mistrust that sits ill with a moralism about care & trust-for customers, but not for employees. Should marginal profits & customer benefits be purchased at a price of systems that treat employees as human robots. Are these predictive algorithms being incorporated into the “systems mix” to bring about, the two concepts of robots vs humans, into a alchemical blend, purposed towards more control, and thus more power?

  8. I imagine they have Algoriths for when the USA goes to hell as well. These control freaks are having a blast of a time playing this game who cares how many people are injured and killed. And if this computer games lead to a major war. By the way did anyone have problems today login to this website. When did today at the top of the page read todays date but post was from Saturday I had to login to your facebook page to login to todays post what may be the problem.

    1. yes I am having the same prob This pops up…Warning: mkdir() [function.mkdir]: File exists in /home/content/98/7224298/html/wp-content/plugins/ivan-gospodinow-cache/classes/ig_class_cache.php on line 20

      mkdir….mk ultra?

      1. Just now it’s opened to a very basic, plain page with Times Roman text and photos. Formatting and some graphic elements are missing. Another time, a line of code at the very top of the page, above the banner. This is something new and has happened a few times over the past week. I’m on a Mac using Safari.

        1. I use Windows 7 on a HP.
          I still have “problems” and must access through “other” means.
          Simple stuff, but extra steps.
          Typical in a monopolized systems:
          Microsoft, monopolized money, monopolized power systems, etc., etc.

  9. I don’t think these predictive algorithms are complete without celestial mechanics added to the equations. In fact, I don’t think they would quite work with any great accuracy. Jupiter, Saturn, Mars, Venus, Mercury, Rahu, Ketu, the Sun and the Moon are the final arbiters on how humans will behave at a given moment in time. But I think our elites know this already. These celestial bodies have produced the astrological matrix which even our elites can not be free of. This utterly profound and inescapable celestial arrangement makes me wonder sometime if we are not indeed the center of this universe. Or, in the least, the center off an elaborately constructed solar system designed to dispense human karma.

    I would also add into the mix, NSA eavesdropping is not just about finance and prediction but also a tool to bribe and commandeer Olympic judges in order to ensure mediocre figure skaters like Sasha Cohen, who fall twice in the competition, still win a silver medal (2006 winter Olympics).

    1. Very good point Frankie… I think PROBABLY those would be the “hidden aspects” of any such programming, the product, perhaps, of black budget research. I was surprised to find the presence of major bank representatives in the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, so the powers that be I suspect have been aware of such correlations for a long time, and doubtless have seen to some secret research, experiments, and funding for making a program like that.

    2. Maybe around 9 years ago I stumbled across this character and his bill of goods. He claims that with his devices that amply ones personal orgone space the energy is power enough to overcome the dictates of astrology driven concerns. At the time I was intrigued and intended to give it a closer look but life got in the way and I forgot about it until just now. If he’s right and not just selling snake oil we’re freer than we thought, haha. Have a look:

      http://www.welz.us/

      1. T.S.

        I have a couple of those Welz devices, and they sure clean up a space. Not so clear about getting beyond astro-influence: Still feel say Mercury retrograde or variant breath effects.

        And never did get the radionic tuner to change trends.

        1. Thanks Lost for the input. After I submitted this I did a brief search for an separate astrology discussion, not forecasting, website he had back then but didn’t find it.

          F.C. you may not have intended it as such but I’m taking comfort in knowing that the heaviness you mention stems from those menacing heavenly (could that be an oxymoron?) bodies and not from the quality of the food I’m eating.

          I’m going to project love and say nice things about those celestial rascals and maybe they’ll come around. After all they might have been abandoned during their early years by an event foreign to the existing paradigm that reshuffled their orbits. Motherless planet . . . . where’s my hankie?

          1. ts,

            “I’m going to project love and say nice things about those celestial rascals and maybe they’ll come around.”

            that is actually the ancient remedy. there are even Sanskrit mantras for each planet (easily found on the internet), but I feel intention works just as well.

            ” I’m taking comfort in knowing that the heaviness you mention stems from those menacing heavenly (could that be an oxymoron?) bodies…”

            you are not the first person to say this to me in recent weeks. A rudimentary understanding of Vedic astrology (Jyotish) will go a long way in helping you navigate life’s ups and downs.

            “…not from the quality of the food I’m eating.”

            Believe it or not, each planet is diet specific but this gets into ayurvedic medicine and the doshas or constitutional humors as the Greeks called them. Your education is not complete until you are versed in ayurveda as well. I don’t claim to know much but I will state for the record that knowledge of the Vedic sciences makes life far more easier and comprehensible.

            Now tantric science would prescribe feeding specific creatures, such as crows for Saturn, in order to placate the planets. As crazy as this sounds, it may not be so crazy if ones believes as I do that there may be subtle plasma beings sharing a symbiotic relationship with carbon based life forms. A crow wouldn’t be such a bad vehicle for subtle life forms to experience our physical existence. It might explain a crow’s keen intelligence. How feeding a crow could somehow curb the harmful effects of the electromagnetic energy coming from Saturn is not something I can quite wrap my brain around… yet. And don’t think about this one too long but this symbiotic relationship might carry over to humans as well. Our soul is just a guest plasma entity which detaches itself at death (or through advanced yoga practices)?

      2. terminally skeptical,

        I stumbled across his website some years ago as well. It was fun to revisit that web page. Its one of those webpages that makes you feel like you have come to the outer most boundary of the internet.

        It is believed in yoga science that one can overcome “the dictates of astrology driven concerns.” It requires much work and the grace of God(s). In the meantime, we will have to withstand the buffeting delivered upon us by the planets. Currently, the three malefic planets–Saturn, Rahu, and Mars are in conjunction. If you feel a heavy, dark weight bearing down on your mind and creating accidents and obstacles as well, this is the reason. I suspect the elites have decided therefore that this is an opportune time to to start a civil war and heighten tensions between the US and Russia, as everyone will take the bait. Or, the planets have decided this themselves and we are all just their pawns, even the sinister elite.

        1. F.C., I too am a big fan of intention. In a minute or so I intend to have another beer. Vocalizing a mantra makes the intention that much stronger. I’ve got a hunch that the disembodied, the astral entities envy our ability to make things happen on this material plane.

          A friend got me interested in Vedic tradition (had my chart done by a reputable Vedic astrologer) some time around the turn of the last millennium. I stopped short of taking the full immersion. That day may still come. Like you I have read and appreciate Paramahansa Yogananda but Dan Winter’s physics and implosion & fractal physics in general I find more mind expanding.

          I wasn’t being entirely dismissive about those malevolent orbs though I’ll admit that there was a touch of ignorance is bliss in my comment. “The planets” by their specific frequencies have an entrainment effect yet I don’t weigh that heavily the influence of destructive frequencies of rocks/ice balls floating out yonder and am deluded enough to even believe that awareness is a big step toward liberation from those forces. Like with so many things, they may well lord over those who don’t know what they don’t know.

          Castaneda made me look at crows as a vehicle between two, perhaps many, worlds. Meditation allows me/us to look beyond the facade. You may be right about the crow and Saturn or is it an expression of a statistical correlation much like David Li’s formula in Joseph’s B.B book. I’m not equipped to say.

          I’ll heed your tip and look up those planetary intonations. Send me a link if you have one.

  10. Hunger is a big destabilizer. Food shortages and rising food prices are key factors in a revolution … recall the Arab Spring riots. Another ‘revolution’ prediction model* has been developed showing that riots break out worldwide when the food price index reaches a certain level. Even wealthy countries are not exempt from the effects. Now we are having extremes in weather caused by geoengineering, commodities speculation in the market, and manipulated global trading imbalances. In the US the major fresh produce supplier, California, is in drought. Now, more than ever, promote and support local community gardens, local growers and producers. Save and share seeds. If your city council says you can’t grow vegetables in your front yard, vote them out of office!

    *The article is on Motherboard, titled “The Math That Predicted The Revolutions Sweeping The Globe Right Now.”

  11. Plug-Print-Play Plausible Deniability via ESProfet Software—(Electronic Superserial PRedictive Ordering of Futures, Ends, and Times)—affords a means to manufacture scalable leverage able to address issues of (inter)National convenience and individual inconvenience, surgical leverage able to effectually affect anything and everything imaginable.

    This sort of speculative Scientism, however, both begs and invites an uncomfortable question. Perhaps, given that graphemes tend to play tricks on shitty wizards, a rather dangerous question:

    “It’s Mathematics, not Magic?”

  12. Sure, and if you follow the links you end up with Miley Cyrus dooming us to Islam, amongst other things.

    And Obama is Hitler, etc.

    http://www.nowtheendbegins.com/blog/?p=16714

    And rebels in Paraguay, that sure confirms everything. And the prediction says nothing about “Marxist” rebels, so the Breaking Deception website, just needs to add to the deception. Fits with linking the Miley Cyrus thing.

    Gee and Han Chinese anger the local Muslims in western China, well at least that’s real.

  13. So the perennial question is how does one forestall the machine or perhaps better said The Matrix? Answer: uncouple from it.

    The five forces from which to disengage are money, media, energy, pharmaceuticals and food. I would put MSM media at the top of the pile followed closely by food and food related (contamination) issues.

    If the internet were to shut down then IMO it would be “game over” and don’t think for a second they don’t know it.

    Predictive algorithms are less effective in healthy and aware humans. Keep ’em dumb and doped up and the creative spark, that capricious variable that won’t be controlled, disappears.

    1. TS great points, I agree entirely about the MSM, Although even healthy and aware humans are at risk….at risk of a very taboo and misunderstood ANCIENT SCIENCE. Hypnosis.

        1. “just following orders” is not a defense….when you are breaking the law, you are on your own….when you get caught.

          That is a point that all “sane” people should be focusing on in any discussion on any topic.

          The bible according to US law, is legally, the word of god. Something not many people are aware of.

          1. Amigo I hope I’m not straying from your message here. The items I enumerated are things in which we have autonomy and by which we can exercise some control over our destiny. If we then stand outside the law in the name of following our conscious and adhere to an intrinsic sovereignty tenet that forbids violating the laws of others or that of a higher power then we might indeed be at risk of confrontation with those who would presume to own us. That dilemma never goes away.

            Where can I reference your remark that The Bible is according to U.S. law legally the word of God?

          2. you are not straying, I was simply making an observation not directed at anyone in particular…just a thought on the potential liabilities of following brainwashing by corrupt people/ leaders…I was thinking of the Nuremberg trials and the defense by the Nazis of “just following orders” didnt work out for them in the end.

            Ill get that link for you…it is difficult for me to get on this thread so Ill post it another thread…a clue in the mean time is on money, “in god we trust”…the new “test” a “mint”….and the bible is in the lodges of the secret societies that founded America.

  14. A new-fangled version of the old game of self-fulfilling “prophecies” (though “forecasting” sounds more scientific)? Of the type used by the bad guys in the series “Fringe” – but in that case there were trans-dimensional factors at work….
    Anyway, if you, say, pump in large sums of resources to destabilize a country, you don’t need an algorithm, elaborated by a heavily-funded research apparatus, to show that at least something is bound to happen.

    1. And let’s not forget all those 50, 18 and 9-year cycles, which could easily be incorporated into “predictive software” without telling anybody.

Comments are closed.