Sometimes I am dumbfounded at how fast my ad hoc, hack-from-South-Dakota speculative predictions seem to hit the news almost as fast as I can comment about them. In this case, I just recorded a News and Views from the Nefarium this last Thursday, on the Greek elections, and what some of their implications may be. I called those implications the "Thermopylae-Salamis Moment" for Greece and the EU. In that News and Views, I offered the opinion, seemingly backed up by statements from the new Greek government, that they would be attending the new EU economic conference, asking that its creditors take a hair cut. I also offered the speculation that this was the public position, and that, should Ms. Merkel....er... the EU... not go along, that Greece would have a fall-back position.
And that fall-back position would be Russia.
No sooner had I managed to post that News and Views than I checked my email inbox, and many people had sent me versions of this story (and the people sending them would have had to have sent them prior to my posting the News and Views where I offered those analyses and opinions. This one from Zero Hedge will do as well as any:
This short article says it all(and I'm citing the whole thing):
"We suggested the Greek pivot from Europe to Russia was building previously, and now, we get confirmation from Russia's finance minister Anton Siluanov that the pivot could be mutual, who told CNBC in the interview below:
- *RUSSIA WOULD WEIGH FINANCE FOR GREECE IF ASKED, SILUANOV: CNBC
"With fire and brimstone spewing from Germany over the potential for Greece to veto any and everything, it seems Russia may just have stymied Europe's leverage over the newly democratic nation.
* * *
"Recall that a German central banker warned of dire problems should the new government call the country's aid program into question, jeopardizing funding for the banks.
"'That would have fatal consequences for Greece’s financial system. Greek banks would then lose their access to central bank money,' Bundesbank board member Joachim Nagel told Handelsblatt newspaper.
"'Unless of course Greece finds a new, alternative source of funding, one that has nothing to do with the establishmentarian IMF, whose "bailouts" are merely a smokescreen to implement pro-western policies and to allow the rapid liquidation of any "bailed out" society.
"'An alternative such as the BRIC Bank for example. Recall that the "BRICS Announce $100 Billion Reserve To Bypass Fed, Developed World Central Banks
"It appears, in Russia, Greece has found another possible friend...
"Siluanov: "'f such a petition [for financial aid] is submitted to The Russian Government, we will definitely consider it.'" (All emphases in the original)
Now what's going on here? Well, for one thing, if my News and Views speculations, and comments about the concurrent story run by CNN(SeeNoNews), that Greece was becoming a prime hub for terrorist cells, then what's going on would seem to be very clear. For one thing, as I put it in the News and Views, are there terrorist cells in Greece? Well, probably. The real question is not that there are or are not such cells, but rather why the West, through one of its principal controlled lamestream media outlets, would run such a story so closely after the Greek elections. And the answer is rather apparent: like President Hollande of France, Greece is being warned that they will experience "terrorism" if they move away from the "line" that the apparatchiks in London, Wall Street, and Washington are putting out: buckle to austerity, allow us to liquidate your country and seize its assets, continue sanctions against Russia, and above all, don't leave the EU or NATO. (Methinks all that Gas between Greece and Turkey has something to do with this).
But now it seems clear that this potential Russia-ward pivot by Greece was in the cards long before, which makes the CNN "terrorism" story all the more significant, for it could be taken as an indicator that there was prior intelligence on just such a possibility, and that Greece "had to be warned."
So what's likely to happen? Greece may or may not gain all the haircut it wishes during the coming conference. I suspect that it won't. The real question, however, is not that, but rather, what it spells for the long-term situation in Europe as a whole, for the Greek situation is going to be keenly watched by Rome and Madrid, the two largest southern European economies, with Spain in particular suffering the consequences of similarly profligate governments in its past as has Greece. The long term result of such austerity policies as are being advocated by Frau Bundeskanzler, and her bankers, is the potential revolt of the southern European countries, beginning with Greece. And that spells a problem for the NATO alliance as well. In the short term, the West will pressure Greece, perhaps staging "messages" such as were staged for M. Hollande in Paris.
But eventually, such behavior will only make all of Europe question the utility of its alliance with the USA and its - well, let's be blunt - out of control and counter-intuitive foreign policy. The pattern is becoming clearer with almost every week's news: we have seen the spate of German ministers at that country's federal cabinate level making curious statements that on balance question the utility of its pro-Atlanticist policies. Think only of last year's statements of Defense Minister von der Leyen, of Foreign Minister Steinmeir, or (my personal favorite), Interior Minister Thomas de Maziere. Then we have the rise of a robust anti-EU movement in Italy. The growing disconent in Spain with its massive youth unemployment. Then we had M. Hollande very explicitly calling for an end to the sanctions regime against Russia. Now we have a new Greek government.
And now we have Russia... "if they ask, we'll help, we'll talk."
That's a long term trend folks, and it's not going to go away.
See you on the flip side...