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RUSSIA SHUTS OFF GAS SHIPMENTS THROUGH THE UKRAINE: SOME LONG TERM ...

So many of you sent me various versions of this story that it would be impossible for me to thank you all individually. But the reasons for this story will become immediately clear once you read it:

Russia Cuts Off Ukraine Gas Supply To 6 European Countries

As I write this, the story is only a day old, but it will appear as a scheduled blog only on Monday. Nevertheless, the story was to be expected, as will be the inevitable Western lamestream media spin. The latter is entirely predictable, of course: Russia's action will be spun as yet another example of the out-of-control and aggressive nature of Mr. Putin's government, and yet another example of Russia's aggression toward the Ukraine, etc etc. And there will be the usual attempt to spin it as an act of sheer desperation on Russia's part

But what really intrigues here is the wider context in which this action occurs, and what action it will possibly call forth in response from the USA. That wider context was Mr. Putin's recent overture to the European Union member states to join the central Asian customs union. This, if Europe chose to do so, would create a kind of "Eurasian Union" from Vladivostok to Lisbon and Dublin. Now, it should be fairly obvious that Mr. Putin knew when he made this offer that he would be ignored, for such a dramatic geopolitical and economic shift would simply be unacceptable to the Anglo-American elites in London and Washington, nor would such a dramatic shift - rather like trying to turn an ocean liner under full speed on a dime - even be feasible for Europe's capitals, despite the growing unease over the Russian sanctions, expressed most recently by M. Hollande.

So what was Mr. Putin really doing?  Well, here comes the high octane speculation of the day: Mr. Putin was articulating the first plank of a long term foreign policy goal, namely, to pry Europe away from its vassalage status to the USA, and align it more to Asia. It was the first message, in a string of messages that will doubtless be emerging over this new year.

The second part of that message was just delivered, with the shut-down of energy shipments through the Ukraine. Part of the reason given for this action is that Russia is accusing the Ukraine of simply siphoning off parts of their shipments through that country:

Europe plunged into energy crisis as Russia cuts off gas supply via Ukraine

However, the real long term message here is to Europe as a whole by way of a reminder that sanctions are a two way street, and that the West, and not Russia, was the initiator of the disastrous regime change in Kiev. It's a none-too-subtle reminder that Europe's economic future lies as much with Asia, as with the United States.

So what might be the response? Look for Europe to press a hard bargain at the upcoming trade talks with the USA, and for the USA essentially to grant such wishes. And this is the problem with vassal states: the more you need them, the more expensive paying for that vassal status becomes, and in the long run, they break away anyway. Mr. Putin knows this, and has relayed the second component of what is likely to be a year full of such messages, and significantly, he delivered it prior to upcoming talks on the Ukrainian situation.

There's another question lurking in the background here: Mr. Putin's action was bold, and obviously calculated. The real question is, where is his support ultimately coming from? Domestically he is, of course, popular within the Russian federation. China in the main has been a quiet supporter. But such a bold action also implies he has some hidden support within the West. The real question is, where might it be coming from? The question is made even more interesting given this bit of news that accompanied the shutoff of energy shipments:

Russia Just Pulled Itself Out Of The Petrodollar

So where might that hidden support be coming from? That is anyone's guess.

But my guess is, look in Europe...

See you on the flip side...

14 thoughts on “ RUSSIA SHUTS OFF GAS SHIPMENTS THROUGH THE UKRAINE: SOME LONG TERM ...”

  1. With the NORD STREAM pipeline operating at full capacity(operations beginning in 2012 at partial capacity) Ukraine is no longer needed for germany’s northern supply needs and the YAMAL turkey/ greek southern pipeline is ready to furnish southern european customers with their gas needs. Its up to the E.U. to allow the further construction at the Turkish terminals western directed pipeline if the supply route will get sanctions lifted or not. We can now see why Kiev is shelling eastern Ukrainian civilians again.

  2. Hmm. My understanding is that he is giving them two years to build pipelines to the new Turkey hub and will gradually reduce gas via Ukraine, as the Turkey infrastructure allows. More a gas reduction, for now, rather than a shut off.

    But the point is good. I suspect the Hebdo job, as others have speculated, was a pointed warning to all Europe, via Hollande, to stop calling for a stepped lifting of sanctions. I also suspect the Dutch rolled up a US-backed and very big false flag attack there at a nuclear plant, to be blamed on Russia and to bring Europe to heel.

  3. The cut off was in 2009 when Poland and Ukraine had their thumbs on the scale a little too much. Zerohedge got taken and so did a bunch of other sites (so did I). Gas is still flowing.

    So here is my speculation. Russia or an agent thereof planted the remake of this story as a warning shot across Europe’s bow. Sanctions? You really want to keep your sanctions?

      1. Yes The Daily Mail Link There Is Dated 07 JAN 2009,
        ===================================================
        Europe plunged into energy crisis as Russia cuts off gas supply via Ukraine

        By Robert Lea

        Updated: 17:57 EST, 7 January 2009
        ===================================================

        The Other Stories, Zero Hedge And Bloomberg Are Current!

  4. The one story that is not being covered by the MSM about Ukraine is “financial”, and if Russia isn’t getting paid by Ukraine, OR, it is stealing gas, then the Russian move is justified. But I think there is another story here, and it concerns the dreaded parasite the IMF. Now the IMF has given money to Ukraine, BUT, it seems the “handout” has stopped. I mean you don’t lend money to someone who you think cant pay it back, meaning the IMF has done the figures, and if there is any doubt that Ukraine cant cough up, then the tap will be turned off. So just “where” has all that money gone?, well I’ll bet some of the righteous Ukrainian politicians just opened bank accounts in some backwater bank. Then there is the USA, and without doubt, that country isn’t going to let all their hard work in the Ukraine go to waste, ie more “unlisted” funds going to Ukraine, and you wont hear about THAT on CNN.

  5. Well, actually very low-octane speculation, if truth be told. And not really even speculation, as Russia is telegraphing its intentions, and they are quite obvious. Russia is acting with calm rationality in the face of the fervid dirty-tricks, hubris and hysterics coming from DC and Euroland, making their wailing and teeth-gnashing look like the absurd thatrics they are.

    But then the West has been living up to their eyeballs in propaganda and lies for so long that they’re totally befuddled by deliberate rationaity.

  6. Well now Europe will pay the price for biting the hand the heats the homes and power their industries. But when has Western Europe like Western Asian ever shown they has brains to speak off. These con-artist always trying to pull the wool over their would be victims. Now one of their bigger victims has turn the tables back on them and they are going to kill to birds at once down goes the CSA petrodollar as well Russia must be preparing a huge vodka party in celebration.

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