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TAIWANESE AND MAINLAND CHINESE LEADERS IN HISTORIC TALKS

Last week there was a development whose significance will unfold over the next few years, if not decades, as the leaders of Communist Mainland China, and Taiwan, met for the first time since Chairman Meo's Communists drove Chiang Kai-Shek's Khoumintang forces from the mainland to Taiwan over 60 years ago, in this article shared by Mr. S.:

The leaders of China and Taiwan in a historic meeting

What's interesting to note here is the approach both countries are taking toward the nearly insoluable political and economic dilemmas that each "China" poses toward the other:

But while bilateral trade, investment and tourism have blossomed – particularly since Ma and his KMT took power in 2008 – there is deep suspicion on both sides and no progress has been made on any sort of political settlement.
Beijing still officially considers Taiwan a renegade province that should be reunified with the mainland. But many Taiwanese see it as independent and are concerned at China’s growing influence.

...

In order not to offend each other the officials will address to each other as Mr. Xi and Mr. Ma, rather than Mr. President, one Chinese government official has said. According to Mr. Ma this meeting will be promoting peace and probable ways to reduce hostility such as removing Chinese missiles targeted at Taiwan.

The backdrop to these talks is interesting to ponder, for they come at a time when America's position and leadership is being challenged on a multitude of fronts and in a variety of ways. One need only think of the Russian intervention in Syria, and two of its "technological messages," with the Russian blackout of communicationns over the entire country, exposing a key NATO-American technological weakness, and the Russian cruise missile attacks. The latter cannot be pondered too long or hard, for not only were the strikes flawlessely executed, but Russia's message was clear and simple: it can interdict any American-Western move in central Asia. Nor is the hidden message here to be forgotten: imagine the vulnerability of American aircraft carriers, the basis of America's ability to protect the sea lanes and project American power internationally, to such long-range cruise missile strikes by Russian(and Chinese) "carrier killers". In other words, there has been not only a collapse of "unipolarism" in recent months and years, but also a demonstration of the weakness of the American leadership class and its ability to protect its assets and allies...

... like Taiwan.

For that island nation, the pressures, when viewed in this context, to mend fences with Beijing are immense, as are the risks, which are almost equal to the risks of not doing so. And for Beijing, the risks of letting the opportunity slide are also immense, for the only other way to mend the fence is literally to storm it, and while the outcome of any one-on-one confrontation is a foregone conclusion, the mainland Chinese know that it would nonetheless be a bloody and costly affair. A forcibly reintegrated province would be a long-term source of internal instability which Beijing can ill-afford.

A clue to the seriousness of both sides is afforded by the fact that both have been willing to forego political protocols and niceties, and this is a powerful symbolic indicator of what the "two Chinas" may be up to over the long haul: a willingness to table immediate political difficulties for the moment, while intricacies of trade, law, and access to each other's markets(of all kinds), may be on the table. It is this willingness of both sides to table the political question that is therefore a significant development.

So where's the high octane speculation here? How will Taipei and Beijing resolve over half a century of recriminations and animosity?  I suspect that both will do so in a typically Chinese way, one in which both sides can win if they play their cards carefully and are not in too much of a hurry to resolve the outstanding political issues, and one of the easiest ways for each to do this will be to make common cause, including the occasional joint communique or position statement, on a variety of geopolitical issues on which both sides can make common cause and show intentional agreement. Think of it, perhaps, as a kind of "honorary" membership for Taiwan in the Shanghai accords-BRICSA bloc. Expect, too, certain "joint projects" to be proposed and embarked upon, including joint military exercises for responding to "regional emergencies," and a major Taiwanese voice in Beijing's "new silk road" project and its efforts to build a parallel financial clearing structure; Taipei's financial prowess and expertise would greatly enhance Beijing's prospects for success, and thus in this one area alone Beiking and Taipei already have an issue ready to hand on which they could make common cause to the mutual benefit of both, provided the will is there to do so.

One thing, however, is certain. The recent talks are not a one-off. They will become more and more frequent, at all levels of Taiwanese-Mainland interaction. And that means, this is one to watch carefully.

See you on the flip side...

11 thoughts on “TAIWANESE AND MAINLAND CHINESE LEADERS IN HISTORIC TALKS”

  1. i know this one’s late to the table – just the same

    taiwan can go the same way as hong kong. whether or not it’s democratic or brit colony of special province of china matters not. defacto, it’s clear who’s in charge who profits, who will profit and who will control. same can be in taiwan. from all we’ve seen elsewhere what better choice has taiwan got.

    which brings to mind korea. not south. not north. just korea. and how and when that will go. moon may have something to say about that. or probably already has.

    this splains the potus and the black ops speeding up domestic terror attacks, geo-engineered droughts and active shooter drills gone live in the states. until, the currencies get back to proper valuation, how are domestic populace to be contained? when and how for the mfg and ag production to come back as well?

    until then, the bern and/or hitlary and/or jeb will have their excuses for austerity and police state well published and lined up.

    btw, this splains russia and japan better too. and now japan and china.

    so when and how will australia wise up? looks like it’s going to take more than a few e-cats to provide tech advantage enough for ussa to keep up with jones’ after losing petro-dollar tyranny.

  2. The key point taken is to look for some common grounds on major geopolitical issues. Play to their similarities, instead of differences. Not doubt China wants to draw them into their orbit; while the Taiwanese certainly want some action in that new Silk Road that is a gamechanger[the east’s yellow brick road].

  3. I see these ‘talks’ as coming from two aspects:

    The ‘old’ aspect has to do with the ‘aging out’ of people involved with the original separation. These folks are emotionally driven, and are more ‘dangerous’. The younger groups in power, now, have no direct memory of the events of their elders. Thus, ‘passions’ have waned, and pragmatism can take hold…

    The ‘new’ aspect has to do with the unbelievable mass-printing of dollars by the Fed. This is likely-seen by Taiwanese leaders as the last gasp of a fiat currency. Taiwan has the choice of going down with the Fed, or hitching its horse to a gold (and possible commodities-basket) backed currency.

    I think the Taiwanese see the writing on the wall. And, as Joseph mentioned, their financial expertise would be an asset to mainland Chinese bankers. It will be interesting to see what form of a ‘hybrid’ shakes-out in the ‘merger’…

  4. What’s not to like about “olive branches”, wherever they come from. Old enemies can in this modern day sit down and talk, even if it comes to nothing, talking is the first step in mending old wounds. I think China believes that Taiwan will never merge with the mainland, but at least mutual cooperation leaves some crumbs on the table. This is also a message to the west, why don’t you stop war mongering and start mending relationships, easy to say, but the US neocons are blinded by graft and corruption, the military industrial complex has a lot to answer for, but alas, the only thing they see is money, sad isn’t it?

  5. It is refreshing and heartening, after all the hysterical agitprop and pea-brained belligerence that has taken over what now passes for “political discourse” (translation: sociopaths spouting you-know-what) in the West, to read about actual diplomacy carried on by adults, acting with consideration and respect.

    It shows how profoundly poisonous the public sphere in the West has become, thanks to the machinations of the usual suspects, with most of the public suffering from terminal Stockholm syndrome.

  6. It good that Taiwan and the People Republic of China are working on a rapprochement after sixty six years. The problem is that the PRC have created and continue to allow the festering mess in Tibet by their looking down on those people. As a result have allow their enemies to fish in those troubled waters. By the way it’s official the Russian airliner over Sinai was taken out by a bomb the maniacs are working overtime.

  7. This also exposes another idiotic decision in a long line of idiotic decisions concerning US manufacturing and “trade agreements”. We have outsourced just about all of our high tech manufacturing. Corporate profits over “national” & economic security. Just where do you think most of your electronic devices are manufactured?
    Your cell phones, computers, CPU’s, electronic components, etc. are manufactured overseas, mainly in Asian countries.
    When your “high tech” military depends on access to these components and their manufacture is not within your borders, you’re screwed if these other nations ally against you. This is just another indicator that these fascist global corporations care little for any nation but value profits above everything else.
    Russia and China have shown wisdom in keeping these things within their own borders while the US idiocracy has proven to be just that. The only value the US has to these corporations now is as their strong arm; but how long will that last now that Russia has demonstrated their ability to negate our imaginary “high tech” advantage;, our naval and air superiority have become virtually obsolete seemingly overnight; and the reserve currency status of the dollar is evaporating before their very eyes. If you think the US is going to pull some miracle from its black projects world to save us, you need to stop drinking their Kool Aid. The black projects world has long been in the pockets of the private global corporations and is no longer controlled by the government. I seriously doubt the government even has a clue to what’s going on within this black projects world now. The government has lost control of its intelligence apparatus which now appears to be working for these global corporations and controlling the government through blackmail, extortion, and the threat of death if these “selected” officials don’t tow the line.
    Pride goeth before a fall comes to mind.

    1. These are good points Walking and they bring to mind the issue of “backdoors” in electronic devices. Now if devices are produced in hundreds if not thousands of facilities ranging over S. Korea, China, Taiwan, Malaysia and elsewhere, who is “out-backdooring” whom?
      And then another Russian high tech “surprise” – reported in the media but needs to be looked into more – has been the “electronic shield” which is reportedly being used to inhibit unwanted aircraft from flying in Syrian airspace.

    2. “The black projects world has long been in the pockets of the private global corporations and is no longer controlled by the government.”

      Yep.

      “The government has lost control of its intelligence apparatus which now appears to be working for these global corporations and controlling the government…”

      Yep.

      In the “Dune” SF series, there was a “Butlerian Jihad” to rid humanity of control by intelligent machines (AIs). It appears OUR history books will record a “Corporation Jihad” to rid humanity of control by artificial ‘persons’. Once again, only human beings will be recognized as having ‘personhood’… (Leaving ‘alien’ issues aside.)

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