RUSSIAN AND JAPANESE ECONOMIC TIES GROW

RUSSIAN AND JAPANESE ECONOMIC TIES GROW

This very interesting article was shared by Mr. T.M., and we'll chalk this one up in my "hit" column, at least for the moment. Why the "hit"? We'll get back to that. But first, the article itself:

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-japan-energy-relations-reshaping-geopolitics-2016-3

Ok, so where's the "hit"? Well, there may actually be two hits here. For some time, I've been arguing that Mr. Abe's moves to rearm Japan actually serve two agendas. At the first and most superficial level, they are designed to placate Washington in its "pivot to the Pacific" to counter growing Chinese influence and power. No American pivot to the region can be secure or effective without Japan, the other Asian powerhouse. From simple historical reeasons alone, Japanese rearmament cannot help be be viewed in Beijing with anything else other than trepidation. To be sure, the China of today is not the China of the 1930s. But, for that matter, neither is Japan.

But at a deeper level I've been advancing the idea that Japanese rearmament was, in a certain  sense, an inevitability given the American unipolarism of recent years, and the flailing about that the USA has manifested in its foreign policy. In that respect, with e USA increasingly deaf to the wishes of its allies - look at the Russian sanctions and the European chafing under the same - Japanese rearmament would allow Toyko much greater maneuvering room via-a-vis Washington. And there's another factor in play here, one well known to some Japanese, and not so well-known to Americans, and that is the run-up to the Fukushima disaster. It is worth recalling, before that occurred, that the then Japanese government had indicated - yet again - to Washington that it wanted the US base at Okinawa closed. That government was also putting out feelers for a state visit of Emperor Akahito to Beijing, in an effort to begin to patch up the always shaky Sino-Japanese relationship and the bitter memories from World War Two. You'll recall that then Secretary of Defense Robert Gates issued a statement to the Japanese government that can be taken as nothing less than a threat: cease and desist from that course, or there would be dire consequences. This episode is remembered in certain quarters in Japan, and some Japanese "alternative researchers" did indeed suggest a connection between the Fukushima disaster and Mr. Gates' warnings. Since that time, of course, that previous government has fallen and Mr. Abe's government now controls the Diet. And now is rearming.

The othter long term factor here is, of course, North Korea, and its "leadership," threatening to rain down nuclear destruction in response to South Korean and American "provocations." For Tokyo, reliance on an increasingly dubious alliance with the USA under such circumstances is intolerable, and while the Japanese may not admit as much publicly and pretend to prefer that the USA continue to function as the umbrella of defense for that nation, privately my guess is that in MITI and the Japanese Defense Ministry, very different thoughts are aired out of the prying eyes of public scrutiny.

But Japanese rearmament serves someone else besides the USA, and that's Russia. While the Sino-Russian partnership is strong and solid, the Kremlin is not so naive to believe that this relationship can remain "unbalanced," particularly with regard to investments in Siberia and Russia's efforts to build up the infrastructure to exploit the vast resources of the region. Imbalance in foreign investments in the region could leave China with a marked influence over it, and over Russian policy. Enter Japan:

Amid the defensive tightening and backdrop of continued G87 drama, of which Japan is a party, relations have remained comparatively hopeful. Trade between Moscow and Tokyo has quadrupled since 2006 with notable cooperation in automotive and construction industries. Of course, energy is still the leading and more natural draw for both parties.

At the end of 2014, Japan led all Asian nations with more than $14 billion in direct investment in the Russian economy – its investments in the oil and gas sector alone more than tripled China’s total contributions. Further, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has set a national target to meet more than 40 percent of the country’s oil and gas demand in 2030 with Japanese firms’ equity output. Deeper ties are not simply a matter of if, but when and where.

For Russia and Japan, it's a win-win deal and a natural cooperation; Japan needs energy, and with the Middle East looking increasingly unstable, thanks to American policy and America's "allies" Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Russia is the natural choice. For Russia, Japanese know-how, engineering expertise, and construction giants can help offset Chinese influence. IN this respect, recall just a few weeks ago that Russia was willing to support a Japanese bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, and those Russian calls to revisit the UN and restructure it according to current geopolitical realties. Russia would eventually, I suspect, be willing to back a similar move for Germany if the Germans are successful in rejecting the USA's sanctions regime and taking a more realistic approach to the Ukraine.

The real notice that things have changed, and in a direction that Washington cannot want, but which is largely of its making, is this final paragraph:

With the carrot of a potential territorial resolution in hand – and with Tokyo seemingly willing to splinter the U.S. strategy of isolation – Russia is operating from a relative position of strength. Yes, Moscow’s ability to dictate terms remains limited, but a place at the table and foot in the back door will do.

Tokyo is indeed splintering the US policy of attempting to isolate Russia, and Washington has only Washington to blame.

My bet?This one has geopolitical repercussions that will reverberate ...well...just about everywhere. For both Moscow and Tokyo, their ability to bury the hatchet and enter mutually beneficial investments and projects will send huge messages throughout the western Pacific, and Jakarta, Bagkok, Manilla, and even Canberra will be watching closely, for it will indicate Russia's bona fides, and open more doors to Moscow.

This one has geopolitical repercussions that will reverberate particularly in Europe, and even more particularly in Berlin. One may expect that when Frau Merkel's government falls, which now seems all but inevitable, that there will be a huge "rethink" in Germany of that "special relationship" with Washington, and that "rethink" will spill over to Vienna, Prague, The Hague, Copenhagen, Stockholm, and Rome, and that's just for starters. And Mr. Putin will be ready, as he has been with Tokyo, to talk some serious business.

See you on the flip side...

29 thoughts on “RUSSIAN AND JAPANESE ECONOMIC TIES GROW”

  1. Hi,
    I’m doing some research into the background of this area, and was curious your position and the availability of research documentation on the Nazi SS fighting under the French Flag disrupting the Supply Lines of North VietNam before the “outright fighting” in Viet Nam Started.

    I thought I heard you talk on this one time, but I can’t find the video..or perhaps I was mistaken.. ..

    This document:
    http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/390961.pdf
    discusses a “Free World Military Assistance Forces” and these forces are not defined, people who where there, have told me “Devils Guard”, Aussies, other French etc.

    This is a person who is highly trusted in a community where trust is everything, so I believe his statement.
    But I was just wondering if you could expound any on this to give us some background on the current North Korea issue.

    Thank you.
    ~e.

  2. In an uncertain world, it is best to spread your ‘portfolio’ to avoid the eggs-in-one-basket problem. If I were a Japanese energy minister, I would spread my oil-sources around the world. That way, no single Player could blackmail me. Not to mention the effect of local wars, etc.

    In one way, Russia should get a slightly-larger ‘order’. The unseen chess-players have little influence over Russian oil exports to Japan. If Russia plays honorably, they are a much more ‘secure’ source than most others. (It will be interesting to see if Putin & Co. choose an ‘honorable’ course with Japan.)

    I believe that 3/11 will play a deep, unacknowledged role in future Japanese and Russian relations. The Samurai ethos runs deep into Japanese culture. To just ‘walk away’ from such a blatant provocation would go against everything their ancestors stood for. I suspect the neocons (and their handlers; the Japanese know who was behind 3/11) have set themselves up for a very-long-term ‘payback’. A rapprochement with Russia is probably a component of this…

    1. gosh, i like your thinking. both in that i hadn’t thought of it yet (and shoulda) and that i’m a little familiar with that mindset. i can easily picture some hard to see players rep japan and bring to terms some neocon zio players responsible for the assault. kinda doubt we’re gonna be able to see much of it. guessing that what comes around as a result of the go around will be ironic and amazingly well placed. i’d love to see it get personal for the oligarchs who did it. at least personal enough to neuter them a bit.

  3. Same here, I had two comments not make it out of moderation in the last two weeks. They were respectful, no swearing and on topic. I thought I was the only one it was happening to. Obviously not. Something strange is happening.

    Don’t know if it’s a human or bot doing the moderation. This may not even make it to the site.

    1. The “awaiting moderation” label appears right after you post; so I’m fairly certain it is automatic. I doubt the good doctor, or anyone else for that matter, sits and watches for posts all day; otherwise your “moderation” would occur fairly quickly. “Moderation” occurs when the doctor, or website manager has the time to do so; I’m sure both are busy going about their lives and get to it when they can.
      While it’s a bit frustrating and tends to cut you out of the immediate conversation, I’ve never had a post just completely disappear, nor even be edited, yet. The quality of this site and those on it, compared to many others, makes this a minor inconvenience to me, worth putting up with.
      Just my 2 cents worth…

      1. As an added note, what seems to trigger it for me is references to Biblical prophecy and occasionally hyperlinks. I understand the hyperlinks, not sure why the other references would trigger it, but that’s the nature of bots, I guess.

        1. Another added note. I can always see my “awaiting moderation” posts as long as I log into the site; I don’t know if others can see them or not.

          1. i’ve heard of mirroring sites (as done on youtubes that get taken down like the unabridged videos of the hebdo shooting?) if the mirrors come up fast enough the censors so far can’t seem to keep the images off youtube.

            is there a means to mirror docs site and compare the awaiting moderation versions to what is currently posted on doc’s url? perhaps a pdf or three on the mirrored site?

      2. WalkingDead, I have had one post ‘disappear’ completely after moderation. It had the URL of the controversial website author whose name sounds like ‘Gem Stone’. This author is really sharp, and good at spotting false flags. He also spotted the culprits behind 3/11. Recommended.

        1. goshawks, wd, robert, basta and others i missed,
          it’s probably automatic and by association. your ip address is probably associated with other attempts at posting a site the censor bot doesn’t like from your ip address. so now your ip address is going to be subject to moderation delays. curious that mine was the first 10 or so entries on doc’s comment board and now mine all get through no problem.

          so here goes a little experiment.

          gosh. are you talking about jim stone?

          http://82.221.129.208/ifyouareinamericayouprobablycantseethisp4.html

          never heard of the guy. will start looking him over until you zap back and tell me it’s someone else.

          thank you
          zdb

          now lets see how long this takes to post from now (3/21/2016 at 14:12:30 cst)

          1. btw that makes everything that is getting through the censors suspect. from the little of doc i’ve read, i’m usually surprised he gets through these censors. curiouser and curiouser that they’d let him through in this entirety (assuming he is) and they’d let us through as much as they do only to cut us off on whatever morsels they’re cutting off.

            steak anyone? (with all remnants of fat trimmed off?)

        2. ZDB, you have the right web author. I suggest that you look first at his 3/11 commentary ‘pinned’ on the upper right of his main page. Read it in detail. That is what got him ‘scrubbed’ off the internet. Way too dangerous to let get out. I have digested that 3/11 paper, and find it very valid…

  4. I had one of my comments not appear as well. Who is to blame? I write inflammatory stuff all the time on another forum and never had a problem. Well it’s server is in the Netherlands, maybe that is why?

  5. This comment continues the above unseen comment
    If we are to make any further headway in understanding the global order we will have to approach it from the other side, from the standpoint of resistance and revolt.

    1. continuing still…
      Power can be executed only over free subjects, and thus the resistance of those subjects is but an expression of their freedom. Revolt as an exercise of freedom not only precedes but also prefigures the forms that power will take in reaction.

    2. continuing still…
      If we are to understand better the nature of the emerging Empire, then, we need to investigate the antagonisms, revolts, and rebellions that press against it.

  6. My comment went immediately to the censorship waiting tank for 3-4 days. I’m once again honored to have the distinction of having writing something offensive to those who run the insane asylum/and their bots; whether on two feet or algorithmic.
    Offence occurred: March 20 2016 @ 4:03 pm

  7. The most significant event of the first decade of the new millennium for geopolitics may be the definitive failure of unilateralism. The U.S. government, the dominant force on the global scene has conjured up specters from the past, with her political leaders stumbling across the world stage, replaying outdated dreams of grandeur. Ambitions of imperialist conquest, nationalist glory, unilateral decision making, in a newly structured transnational corporatized global leadership globalist leadership, with horrifying real violence that supports it – all stitched together with U.S. exceptionalism.

  8. More messages being sent. BUT, what would global “friendships” look like with Mr. Trump in the White House?
    This could be a game changer, I don’t like Trump, mainly because you and I have no idea which way he is going to jump, and that can be seen as either good or bad. If Trump wins, global alliances may just reverse themselves, and Russia is sitting on it’s hands in a wait and see position.

  9. I’m not sure how to view the world. Farrell has eluded to the cooperation between Russia and USA for competing space programs (yet joint cooperation behind the scenes). So are the international bankers not using both sides anymore? Isn’t all of this east vs west just public consumption theater? I know he has also made the case for factional infighting, even amongst the western elites. I know it isn’t a cut and dry, black and white issue, I just haven’t figured out how to view all of this.

  10. Part of Obama’s foreign policy doctrine is that other countries need to man up and take responsibility for their own defense, that it is not the job of the US military to police the world, so when these countries start doing that, the reaction of so many is that the US is weak and the rest of the world has had it with its strong arm tactics. I really think, first of all, that people should judge what’s happening in terms of the present rather than the past policies coming from Washington, and second, that there are factions outside of the White House that are on a much different path than set by the current administration, and these groups are causing havoc all over the globe. But, unfortunately, they are not just in the US, but also working through Russia, Germany, Saudi Arabia, etc.

  11. One thing that should not be forgotten Russia, China, Korea are neighbors. And have a long relationships at least a few centuries old and have been consolidated states for centuries with Japan culturally consolidated for centuries. The USA is more like the Duchy of Normandy with veneer of a cultured ruling class more like warlords, street gangs maybe low level mafia at best. Those in the USA who could do a better are bared from power or must watch their back or stay out of power for health reasons.

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