IS TURKEY PLAYING CHICKEN?

IS TURKEY PLAYING CHICKEN?

In the USA, in case you didn't know, there used to be a game called "chicken." The essence of the game is that two individuals would drive their cars at breakneck speed toward each other, and whoever veered away first was "chicken." Of course, this insane and irrational "game" seems to have informed the thinking of the USSA's "neo-consevatives" or neocons in recent years, as they seem to be playing chicken with France, Italy, Germany, Great Britain, China, Japan, Russia and....well, and just about everybody.

Well, of course, it takes two to play chicken, and Turkey's Sultan Erdogan appears to be willing to play the game, especially in the wake of his historic meeting with Mr. Putin recently. Now, why neither side came away from that meeting with everything they wanted, at least they're talking to each other. But Mr. G.B. shared this article from our friends at Zero Hedge, and if nothing else, it suggests that whatever shortcomings the meeting held for the Kremlin or the Sublime Porte, the latter, at least, comes away from the event a little more emboldened:

Erdogan Threatens To Abandon US Dollar In Trade With Russia

No doubt the reader caught the main story here:

But perhaps the most notable development was reported today by Turkey's Gunes newspaper, which said that as part of the discussion between Putin and Erdogan on Tuesday, the Turkish president suggested to abandon the US dollar in bilateral trade between Turkey and Russia, and instead to transact directly in lira and rubles. This would "benefit both Russia and Turkey", Erdogan allegedly said in his August 9 meeting in St Petersburg, adding that this would relieve the lira from the USD's upward pressure. The reason Erdogan is concerned about exchange rates is because recently Turkish inflation soared by nearly 8% Y/Y, and the recent devaluation of the TRY against the USD has only poured more oil on the fire.

Needless to say, such a bilateral agreement would further infuriate Turkey's European "friends", permanently halting Turkish accession into the customs union, in accordance with Austria's recent demands, and would in turn lead to a dissolution of the refugee agreement that is still keeping millions in refugees away from Europe in general and Germany, and Merkel's plunging popularity ratings, in particular. Which, incidentally, means that not only Erdogan, but now also Putin, holds key leverage over the career of Europe's most important politician.

Leaving aside for the moment Kanzlerin Merkel's plummeting approval rates (can't blame the Germans for that! she has only herself to blame) and growing unpopularity throughout the rest of the EU project, what's noteworthy here is that Turkey appears to be ready to abandon the trade with Russia in dollars and enter into bilateral ruble-lira arrangements, which is, of course, yet another blow against the dollar's reserve currency status.

All this comes after the abortive coup attempt against Erdogan, and in the context of increasing noise from Ankara that it is disgusted and dissatisfied with NATO in general and the USSA in particular. There were, you'll recall, actions against the US airbase at Incirlik, when the Turks shut off the power to the base for a few days, and there have been ongoing protests against the base since.

What to watch for? If Turkey and Russia do proceed with such bi-lateral trade and currency agreements, then eventually I suspect that Turkey will indeed withdraw from NATO if it is able to satisfy its defense requirements from purchases from Russia or China. If that happens, it will demand the removal of the US base at Incirlik, and if that happens, then the "fun" begins. The USSA in that case can then refuse, and risk an extraordinary amount of blowback and loss of prestige in the world, or it can press for a delay while it tries to find new basing in the region. Given the "success" of USSA foreign policy in the region under the previous two administrations (and you know who), that is not likely to be forthcoming. Either way, it's a lose-lose situation, for refusal to remove the base will lead to similar demands and increasing pressures in other countries (think Japan and Okinawa here), and removal of the base will lead to...well, the same thing.

And the sultan knows this, and is playing for keeps.

See you on the flip side...

13 thoughts on “IS TURKEY PLAYING CHICKEN?”

  1. and now i’m reading 15 hour old articles from haaretz, the daily bell and all sorts others that the ussa is pulling nukes out of turkey and into romania?

    when do we start seeing deutsche bank with open public runs? how exactly are the kagans et al going to get this putin thorn out of their side?

  2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QI9NiHKGurI

    corbett, sibel edmonds and spiro get it right more often than anyone else lately

    erdogan pre-emptively coup’d himself. any coup against erdogan now can only come from russia supporters inside erdogan’s military. all the supporters in his military for the west are currently in custody.

    looks more and more like putin is helping turkey and syria and erdogan and assad in meaningful effective ways. anyone notice that assad is still in place? in spite of ketchup kerry’s and hyena laugh hillary’s and obama’s lines in the sand? kinda looks like putin can protect these players sufficiently against the west. at least for now.

    what does it mean if putin pulls this off? how long can the neolibconszio’s tolerate such military undermining? and if they go to the ruble how long can goldman chase tolerate the economic collapse obviousness?

    how harsh can the neozioconlibs go against putin? how far is bauer windsor going to let ussa go?

    a long unanswered question seems more pertinent than ever:

    whatever happened to iceland when they told the west to go jump? didn’t putin get involved there? how’d that go? and what about now?

    1. Yes, Iceland is curious. As far as I know, it has not been re-Central Bank-ed. And, no massive ‘sanction’ campaign. And, no controlled-media endless slandering. (They did succeed in forcing-out Iceland’s Prime Minister – indirectly.)

      I would have expected a massive campaign against Iceland, since it is a crack in the dike. Freedom. The ‘silence’ is most curious…

      1. and they forgave most of the regular volk’s crazy outta control mortgage debts to manageable burdens.

  3. As I have said before, the only thing the PTB will not countenance is loss of financial control. If Erdogan truly moves away from the central banks into a form of barter system (in the form of ruble to lira direct trades), expect sky’s-the-limit retaliation. If I were Erdogan, I would not take any airplane trips and begin recruiting really-good body doubles…

  4. Robert Barricklow

    Of course economic warfare has been going on for millennium upon millennium. Eventually they turn hot: recently WW1, WW11, and all the ensuing conflicts/wars. In the Economic Hitman books he relates this strategy . Either they lay down and get plundered by the West’s oligarchical financiers, or the dogs of war are unleased.

    1. Robert Barricklow

      But before the hot war; there are coups/assassinations.
      Turkey escaped the coup and then saddled up with Russian muscle[economically & militarily].
      Globally, two forms of power are emerging in the form of public power versus private power. Each uses their own signature of economics to boost their respective ruling systems: public or private.
      Space itself, Star Trek’s final frontier is being subject to these signature forms of a power base. Either the will of the people, where the people strive to have money serve them as a tool; or, the oligarch who use money as a tool to master to the masses.
      One depends upon stealth/deception[a closed system]; the other, on an open system with checks & balances.

    2. It took them a few thousand years to catch on, but today’s youth finally have. It won’t be so easy to entice them into committing suicide on the battlefield anymore so that those oppressing them can get the funds to oppress them even more. Thus the race towards drones and killer robots to war against their own people along with the whole world. But of course globalists no longer consider themselves part of the human race anymore and suffer the delusion that they are becoming gods over the rest of us. It won’t end well for them.

      1. Robert Barricklow

        Roger
        Obama Administration/a killer drone is like a lawn mower: no matter how many you kill; the grass grows back.

  5. For millennia Europe was the end stop for volkstrek from Asia. Europe has never gotten it’s act together ever. Tribal wars are us it has only in the last half a millennium used the Americas and Australia as a dump for it social problems. As for the Turks they were invited in in the eleventh century and have stayed ever since. They’ve been used as useful idiots by the European elites and finally realized they can get a better deal from the Russians can anyone blame them.

  6. https://az616578.vo.msecnd.net/files/2015/12/20/635862522874157510-1943371452_giphy%252B%252818%2529.gif

    Ras Putin is a happy Czar.

    It would appear to me that Europe has always had a refugee problem coming from somewhere. During the late 1800s Anvers was flooded with russian refugees fleeing to US, early 1900’s had refugees from WW1, so basically the entire eastern part of Europe.. so the Hapburgs Empire.. had people fleeing into Europe. WW2.. well.. The germans moved quickly enough (thanks to amphetemine) to block the populations in place.. After we had Mr Gadafi in place to protect the southern shores from the African invasions.. Now we rely on Turkey to keep the refugees back?? It used to be, that populations were captured and deported back to Babylon.. Now they are used as social terror weapons.. Ohno.. the refugees are coming.

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