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MERKEL MUSS WEG!??

Well the few days before the American Thanksgiving holiday, and I have to admit, the news and articles have been piling into my inbox in a torrent. In fact, rather than my usual one-day Thanksgiving vacation, I'm going to take two this year, because there is so much to sort through it's going to take a while. One of the stories, though, didn't take long to shoot to the top of the list this week, and that was this story from Zero Hedge sent along by Mr. V.T.:

"Worst Case Scenario" Looms As Merkel's "Jamaica Coalition" Collapses

Now, just to review, you'll recall that Mad Madam Merkel went to the polls a little over a month ago, and the results were... well, less than good for her coalition government. For one thing, the SDP (Social Democrat Party) wasn't going to be participating in any future coalitions. The former Foreign Minister, Herr Steinmeir, had exited the federal cabinet and been "promoted," and perhaps more importantly, the former Finance Minister, Herr Schauble (sorry folks, no umlauts!) also left the cabinet. Of the two, I think the Schauble exit from Mad Madam Merkel's cabinet is the more significant. Between the two, this was quite a loss of brainpower. Schauble, you'll also recall, was the finance minister who showed up in China for a G8 "gathering" a couple of years ago, and told it like it is: the debt growth model is over, there's no way forward that's not a reform.  Meanwhile, Mad Madam Merkel and the Brusselscrats continued to flood Europe with refugees, impose austerity, and ignore Eastern Europe viz Hungary and Poland, and the result was...well, for one thing, a 32 year old Chancellor in Austria. Merkel's CDU lost seats in the Bundestag, leaving her to cobble together a coalition with what is left, and since the SDP won't go with her any farther (can you blame them?), and the AfD (Alternativ fur Deutschland) which amassed 90+ seats won't either, that left Mad Madam Merkel in a similar position to Teresa May: having to reach out to anything in order to retain power in a rather different kind of coalition...

... between the Greens and the Free Democratic Party, representing predominantly German business who are needless to say, not exactly on the same end of the spectrum as the Greens. As the article is reporting, and as I suspected might happen, the talks have broken down, with the FDP walking out of the talks:

We warned on Friday that German Chancellor Angela Merkel faced a 'night of the long knives' in her efforts to bring together the co-called 'Jamaica' coalition of four parties and after a desperate weekend of talks, Bloomberg reports Merkel's efforts at forming a coalition have failed meaning a second election looms and sending the euro sliding.

As Bloomberg reports, talks on forming German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s next government collapsed, throwing the future of Europe’s longest-serving leader into doubt and potentially pointing the world’s fourth-biggest economy toward new elections.

After a 12-hour negotiating session that ended shortly before midnight Sunday, the Free Democratic Party walked out of the exploratory talks, saying the differences with the Green party were too great to bridge.

The prediction? Well, Zero Hedge references Bill Blain, who offers the idea that with Mad Madam Merkel in trouble, France will get to play Karl der Gro...er... Charlemagne in the EU while Germany sorts out its problems:

As MINT Partners' Bill Blain noted previously,Germans are not used to multiple elections – and a second vote early next year would be massive negative for Merkel herself – she may even have to stand down if coalition looks like falling. That could be massive shock.

As a result, the prospects for more volatile European peripheral markets, particularly Greece and Italy, are likely to be exacerbated, and we might well see some of the currency and European stock market froth blow away in coming days as the scale of the “German Problem” becomes clearer.

  • My worst case Germany scenario is a second election early next year, political uncertainty as Mutti Merkel finds herself squeezed out, and a scramble to build a new coalition government in her aftermath.
  • The best case scenario isn’t much better: that Merkel manages to forge a new coalition, but it will be a long drawn out affair and the resulting administration will be vulnerable, weak and fraxious.

These sound like German problems, but they mean the “leader of Europe” is likely to be entirely inward focused in coming months/years.. at a time when the European union will be facing a host of new issues regarding closer union, banking union and reform of the ESM, bailout and QE policies. There will also be new potential crisis points – Italian elections next year, Greece bailout, renewed immigration crisis or a blow-up with Trump. And these are just the known unknowns.

This has profound implications for the so-called French/German axis as it slides towards Paris.

I'm not so sure. I think there is a possible chance for leadership challenges in the CDU, as possibly for another and earlier election, and this time, with Merkel gone, a new coalition government - one not trying to mix oil and water like the FDP and the Greens - might possibly be in the offing, and the SDP closing ranks and extending some branches to that party which Merkel will never countenance in a coalition. Behind the lines of the FDP walkout (not to mention the showing of the Afd), I'm sensing, perhaps, that the real message is "your policies have failed, Frau Merkel," and that "Merkel muss weg!"(Merkel must go!") might actually be being whispered in the corridors of the old Reichstag in Berlin. And then, of course, there's the matter of allowing M. Macron to play Charlemagne, which would mean more of Merkel, and which, in turn, means simply kicking the can not only down the road, but across the border.

Time will tell of course...

See you on the flip side...

 

18 thoughts on “MERKEL MUSS WEG!??”

  1. What is interesting with all of the above is Armstrong Economics forecasts about Europe. This is the largest consulting firm on the planet with computer models that track both domestic and international capital flows and then make forecasts without any human intervention. For those that do not know Martin Armstrong is the guy that Margaret Thatcher brought in when Soros was shorting the pound and bankrupting the UK. He is also the guy who when those individuals who were in the process of creating the euro asked for a consultation and he told them it would not work as countries would lose the ability to weaken the currency as needed and would have to take on massive debt loads to offset this and this would eventually collapse banks, businesses and countries themselves. Just look at Europe now and it is on the verge of total collapse. Their clients are large institutional investors, large financial firms, multinationals who need to manage their foreign currency holdings, hedge funds, central banks and governments. They stated they have been flooded with requests by governments and central banks in Europe. Back in 2011 the models forecast the the Dow would hit 22,000 then 23,000 and then on to 38,000 to 42,000 all due to the capital flight out of Europe. Their clients are still moving capital out of Europe to the dollars and dollar based assets. Now the models are forecasting that as we move into 2018 both the Monetary and Sovereign Debt Crisis hits there along with the pension crisis. It will not survive. Just recently another bank in Italy is in trouble and the pension crisis has already hit Spain. Now we have Merkel’s government collapsing and it was just recently reported that most of the German cities and provinces are in deep, deep financial trouble. On all cue as the models forecast. All their clients are bracing for the collapse in 2018 and it will be very bad for the people of Europe. As this will accelerate the capital flight out again to dollars and cause massive dollar strength again and move US equities up even higher as capital is simply being parked in markets where there are huge pools of liquidity and that is the US. The only thing propping it up is the ECB creating 60 billion euros a month out of thin air and buying all the toxic sovereign and corporate debt from banks. If they stop countries, banks and businesses fail faster. If they keep buying the euro collapses faster. Either way they are all toast.
    Now to say Brussels is in panic mode is another huge understatement. They just recently announced they want members to pay 25% more, place a tax on all financial transactions and also be able to tax all EU citizens and businesses directly. Then last week you had an ECB claim all deposits in the EU are unsafe. Well if you control large amounts of capital and you have not moved it to the US by now, it is certainly being moved as I write this. Then the ECB screwed up again by wiping out the share and jr. bondholders in the 3 failed banks in Italy and Spain causing investors to dump these “assets” across the whole banking sector making the banks even more insolvent. Now they cannot use capital markets to raise additional funds nor can most of the countries either. The dominoes are already falling and it is going to get much worse.
    This has also caused the FED to go into panic mode as they need a much weaker dollar and to stop the capital flight from moving into dollars and dollar based assets. This will collapse US exports especially commodities and hurt money center bank earnings as they have lent trillions in dollar denominated loans to foreign entities and a strong makes these almost impossible to service.
    We have been witnessing one of the largest financial failures in history and again it is going to get much worse! To say Brussels and the ECB are clueless is again a huge understatement.
    Do the models forecast that the US comes out unscathed? NOPE! Our problems start on 2020 and the first crisis is very high food prices as we enter a much colder period. Already for the last couple of years many farmers in the northern US, Canada and Europe are planting later and harvesting earlier due to the extreme cold. Last year in Spain many crops were wiped out due to very cold and usual weather. As we move farther into this period this will cause people to only go to work and only buy the essentials as it will become to cold to shop for anything else. This will collapse retail on a scale never seen before and many people and businesses will move to the south. This is why Armstrong Economics moved its HQ to Tampa from Connecticut. The models also has forecast the Brexit on the very day it happened and this was forecast years in advance. They also forecast a Trump win. The models also forecast social change, the toppling of governments and extreme economic hardships because when large amounts of capital leave an area like the EU, this is what the results are and this is what we are witnessing.

    1. jj, thanks for the Armstrong Economics forecasts. I had not heard about them. Intriguing.

      Question: Does the Armstrong Economics forecasts include the rise of the Russia/China ‘alternate’, non-dollar economic system? I could easily see ‘asset flight’ from Europe going to them, rather than the US system…

  2. New elections would come in April…. the Germans want Germany back with Germans. Round up of immigrants to kick them out. The Germans have had enough. Macron can’t do too much or he loses his base. This last week Soros was talking to party leaders of Sweden to take in more immigrants. Did Soros see what was coming with Germany? If the new election happens in Germany, then massive shift will come to the Swedish government as well.

  3. Dag from Ringerike

    So where to start.

    Well, if you look at Germany, the impact of the over sudden 1 million refugee has now been realized by most of the German population; increasing crime rate , housing issues, low labour partipicion rate, stress on the funding for the social service on the local communities. “We wll handle it”, said Frau Merkel. They don´t, and ordinary people observe it, or the electorate, the voting people. The propaganda in the MSM in Germany, has been kind of labeling the anti-immigration movement in the population as neo Nazis. A very clever propaganda issue considering the history of Germany. I will stop here.

    Looking at France, le petit garcon, Macron, a Gods Word from Nothing appearing; a strong manupulation of the electorate, the Nazi coupong on Marine Le Pen in MSM, knowing history, either on the left or on the right, people would have been difficulties to vote for her. Jim Willie spoke about voter fraud, also it could have been happening in France. It could be a possibility that she actually won the election if JW´s sources are correct.

    Then we have to look at what the electorate have to vote for. Look at Austria. A kid. 30 years old or so, and he can govern a country, give me a brake. What have he learned about labouring – and history? We are seeing the same pattern in Norway, young party buraucreats, our foreign minister e.g., never have had dirt under her nails.

    A Gods Word from Nothing, 30 years old kid, knowing nothing about our transport system is now in chargee wracking havock on ordinary peoples living standard by putting up up toll passings around our capital Oslo, to save the climate.. When China and Pakistan are putting up 13.00 MW coal power plants in the near future, according to William Engdahl. To cite Riche Allan. This lunacy. Poeple are fed up.

    If you look at France, and the new elected parliament in Norway, young kids, Gods Word from Nothing. You can be assured that there are handlers behind. And sometimes the kids are exposed, like Trudeau in the Canadian parliament yesterday. An eleven minutes clip.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbl05o8KNe0

    All the Best,
    Dag.

    1. Thats right DAG.. You know what I dont like… Leaders of a country that DONT HAVE CHILDREN….
      JFK defused the Cuban crisis because he had the image of his children in his head.. what did he do as soon as it was finished?? Went on holiday with his family and spent a week in the pool with his kids.. What a man!
      Exemples of Politicians without Children.. Hitler.

  4. “Let us control the money of a country, and we care not who makes its laws.”

    “Let us control the source code of a country, and we care not who makes its money.”

    Rune rebus is source code. Second Reformation. Checkmate.

  5. I’m going to take my usual stance that everything is under control, rather than out of control. This means that events are progressing “just fine” under long-term TPTB planning. Within this viewpoint, it means that Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble was ‘scheduled’ to leave office, and – most certainly – Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron (née Rothschild *grin*) was ‘scheduled’ to take-up office at this time.

    Schäuble leaving means that the banksters are distancing themselves from Merkel, not that he was ‘dismissed’. Combined with ‘capital flight’ to Luxembourg, Switzerland and overseas – and physical flight to New Zealand and Patagonia – this means that Über banksters are preparing some sort of (financial/social) ‘doom’ scenario for the EU, possibly spreading worldwide. (Note that ‘physical flight’ is NOT to the US.)

    Macron arriving seems too late. Whatever is going to happen to the EU is going to happen, barring a (debt) Jubilee. Perhaps Macron is meant to be a ‘survivor’, with France left in a dominant position amid the wreckage of the EU. Or, he is placed to exacerbate the crisis, followed by a pair of unidentifiable ‘burned-bodies’ being discovered in a bunker. His role is unclear, except that he was placed in position by Über bankster Rothschild…

    (It is interesting that the Qatari investors who bailed-out Deutsche Bank last pre-bankruptcy are now huddled-inwards, thanks to MbS’ isolation of that nation. Plus, MbS just “Ritz-Carlton” isolated the Saudi moneybags. One could see a pattern here…)

    1. Macron is having trouble with his brand-new political party slapped together with the explicit (and sole?) purpose of defeating Marine. Rats leaving a leaking – if not sinking – ship?

      1. If it were slapped together to defeat Marine.. it certainly worked.. her party is in tatters.. I saw her on the news this am.. literally excusing their lack of action/reaction with excuses like.. we’re 7 people.. against 500..
        Macron caused the Socialists to abandon ship and jump on his new raft.. bouyed by the Rothschilds.. The Right self exploded, due to Pharoah Sarko’s insane spending spree on his ‘I wanna be American’ tour… (in France, there are very strict laws on what you can spend money on whilst campaigning.. this guy rode roughshot all over it and basically bankrupted the political party who had to pay for his spotlights and photographs.. which actually didnt do anything.. its like the clintons and their “x” million dollar bill for not getting elected president..
        Then.. Politicians did what politicians do…. they talked and did nothing since Macron was voted in.. and now people are wondering why the heck they were even excited in the first place..
        Germany will fall to pieces.. and France will be dragged into the quagmire with them…

        REMEMBER :: The Volkisch (yes.. im sorry.. i know it isnt spelt right) movement only took root and popularity DUE to massive refugee importation from .. well everywhere that WW1 destroyed.. so Italy to Afganistan..so the Germans were sick of seeing Slavs and Polish people dragging their dead across the country, and they started romanticising the time of their ancestors, when they could take a suit of armour.. a horse and a sword… consider themselves German again…
        Remember what came of it the last time it happened..

    2. Robert Barricklow

      Goshawks
      Their mindset is certainly capable of it.
      After all, they orchestrated WW1 & WW11 and their latest cherry on top of our living earth: chemtrails. The culling & coming engineered holocaust of humanity?
      Forgive them, for they know not what they do??????

  6. Raus damit!

    Mutti is tired and past her sell-by date and Germany — and Europe and pretty much the world — is tired of her too. Enough of letting everyone endlessly walk into the fog and especially enough of that stupid hand symbol of hers.

    She can’t form a government and there’s no way the far left and far right — which, thanks to her own treasonous immigration policies, can now and already have deprived her of a workable majority — will work with her in a coalition. They’ve got her number, see her weakness, and are sitting on their hands and letting her twist in the wind. The SPD have said there is absolutely no upside to working with her, and they are much better off in opposition rather than getting blamed as part of the problem if they support her, and they are absolutely right.

    I think you may well see a very unorthodox coalition form in Mutti’s wake and he CSD may well be shunned from any participation, or at least as a deeply nerfed junior partner. One thing is for sure, people in Germany are furious with the federal government and a new election is just what Merkel and the CSD have to avoid to retain any power at all. good luck with that.

  7. So much for the German electoral system, praised by European politicians. It was tailored to ensure “stability” – i.e. oligarch continuity.

      1. Robert Barricklow

        Nothing’s changed, in that over the millennias, the monolpoly of money has ruled. Currently the international banking cartel[BIS] has reigned supreme using its various banks to orchestrate oligarchical control through corporations and through the alchemy of money[dollar/petro(S.A.)].
        The initial game was to control Monsanto food via a digitized/food alchemy. But the GMO Monsanto-lock isn’t a fiat accompli as yet. The chemtrials are designed to wack-a-mole nature’s food supply via the metals, and other nano-sprays. Of course, that’s a slow-death trail-of tears-march for all living beings[not augmented or digitized]; in-tandem with the current slow burn economy.
        There damn well should be some shake-rattle-n-roll among the players who want life over death.
        Those who have already forsaken humanity want to take the rest of us down that road to hell. And some ain’t buying it, come hell or sky-high electromagnetic-biblical-floods.

        1. Yiannis Katospiti

          Martin Armstrong documentary is : The Forecaster. Armstrong’s tax reform simple : 10% sales tax on everything . Direct . Booya! We know the deal . Keep It simple and continue purge.

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