CHINA’S ONE BELT ONE ROAD HITTING POTHOLES

Mr. J.S. sent along this article, and it is highly significant for the coming years' geopolitical-financial landscape. As the article puts it, China's Silk Road project is running into a few "potholes":

China's new Silk Road hits political, financial hurdles

Let's zero in on the central issue(s):

From Pakistan to Tanzania to Hungary, projects under President Xi Jinping's signature "Belt and Road Initiative"+ are being canceled, renegotiated or delayed due to disputes about costs or complaints host countries get too little out of projects built by Chinese companies and financed by loans from Beijing that must be repaid.

In some areas, Beijing is suffering a political backlash due to fears of domination by Asia's biggest economy.

"Pakistan is one of the countries that is in China's hip pocket, and for Pakistan to stand up and say, 'I'm not going to do this with you,' shows it's not as 'win-win' as China says it is," said Robert Koepp, an analyst in Hong Kong for the Economist Corporate Network, a research firm.

"Belt and Road," announced by Xi in 2013, is a loosely defined umbrella for Chinese-built or -financed projects across 65 countries from the South Pacific through Asia to Africa and Europe.

Other governments welcomed the initiative in a region the Asian Development Bank says needs more than $26 trillion of infrastructure investment by 2030 to keep economies growing. Nations including Japan have given or lent billions of dollars for development, but China's venture is bigger and the only source of money for many projects.

Governments from Washington to Moscow to New Delhi are uneasy Beijing is trying to use its "Belt and Road" to develop a China-centered political structure that will erode their influence.

In other words, China has been attempting - with relative success - to play the USA's "World Bank/IMF economic hit man" game, but countries are balking at the geopolitical result of having to kowtow to the mandarins in Beijing.

So what does it portend? Beyond the obvious geopolitical-financial push-back, coming not from the USA but rather from the nations involved in the project themselves, we can - in my high octane speculative opinion - to expect two trends, one of which is dependent on Beiking's flexibility, and another not. With respect to the first trend, the article itself suggests what this trend will be: renegotiation of the ventures currently under way, for as the article points out, the Silk Road initiative is "not as 'win-win' as China says it is." Failure to renegotiate the terms and conditions of some of these projects is, in a certain sense, not an option for Beijing, for failure to do so could potentially lead to their complete demise, which, of course, Beijing does not want, and a case could be made that it cannot afford.

The other trend has been exhibited by the careful diplomacy that Russia, Japan, and the European powers, chiefly Britain, France, and Germany, have been doing. I've pointed out in previous blogs and in some interviews that Mr. Abe's Japan has been conducting very careful diplomacy with Mr. Putin's Russia to allow Russian access to Japanese technology and investment money for the development of Siberia, precisely as a geopolitical counterpoise to Chinese influence in the region. Mr. Abe and Mr. Putin have been able to set aside the contentious issue of the Kurile islands in order to achieve some significant steps forward. I thus suspect (in my high octane speculation sort of way), that this means that the projects that China has envisioned for its infrastructure development of the Silk Road, could conceivable be "renegotiated" by various countries with other principal powers than China. For example: Pakistan wants a dam, but doesn't want the undue Chinese influence that goes with it. Can Pakistan get better terms from a consortium of European powers, or a consortium of Russian and Japanese investors, or all the above?

The point here is that China has, in a sense, put itself in a difficult position: it must renegotiate, or lose the progress it has gained, lest others step in and offer better terms.

My bet is, China will renegotiate, but I suspect, in this and following years, that this will inevitably mean than the whole current structure of power relationships within the one belt one road initiative will change significantly.

See you on the flip side...

23 thoughts on “CHINA’S ONE BELT ONE ROAD HITTING POTHOLES”

  1. An analogy: A few years back, the small city where I live was offered the prospect of having a headquarters complex of a huge, nationwide car dealership being built downtown. It was to be a sprawling complex across several downtown city blocks, with public parks and a mini-skyscraper. As this city had been hard-hit by loss of employment and was on a downhill slope, this was viewed as a godsend.

    At first, all went well. Various small, run-down properties were purchased at fair prices to form the core of the complex. Then, one property owner decided to milk the situation. He held-out for an outrageous price, knowing he had the project over a barrel. Negotiations went on, without success. Finally, the project owners said “Screw it!” and radically-downsized the whole complex (rightly resisting the blackmail). The ‘makeover’ of a significant part of our downtown was thwarted by one opportunist…

    China faces a similar dilemma. It is a complex project, each part somewhat dependent on the state of the whole. Fair value is needed, of course, for the participating nations. But whether or not the project succeeds will ultimately depend on whether opportunistic nations ‘blackmail’ China beyond all patience…

    1. Agreed. But unlike many investors here China has a long view with respect to profits–not a short one. Their patience is not infinite, but it can be seen without the assistance of an electron microscope!

  2. Just wait until China has one of their next generation nukes figured out and in mass production. LFTRs for everyone and up front costs can be split or China gives it to them and gets more money but over the lifespan of the reactor.

    They become the OPEC of electricity.

    1. Yes, thorium-cycle reactors are the future of the nuclear industry. China seems to have figured this out. If they play ‘fair’, we may finally see a renaissance of safe, low-cost, reactors across the globe…

  3. Robert Barricklow

    Of course my frame focuses on private power vs public power: Oligarchies/Corporate Fascism vs public forms of power, like democracies.
    This springs from how their currency is birthed & controlled; either from private sources or public sources.
    The One Belt One Road initiative is primarily financed thru China and is primarily public. This is counter to the wishes of the 1% that are enjoying governing from the Commanding Heights of power[For example, the U.S. is wanting to restructure the U.S. public structure into a privatized infrastructure, completely gutting the public ownership].

    In 1989, at the same time Us strategy led to the downfall of the Soviet Union[looting it wealth by private powered interests]; the CIA set off a chain of events known as the Tiananmen Square massacre. It was intended to create political chaos inside China in its economic transformation. The U.S. plot failed but not before exacting a high political & economic cost. That modus operandi hasn’t changed its spots one iota.
    China must have absolutely no illusions about the ruthlessness and determination of their adversary, the elite private powered-circles of the Anglo-American axis. These private corporate fascist interests increasingly plan to mortally wound and eventually kill China’s public economic wonder.
    The growing Eurasian economic space in China in conjunction w/Putin’s Russia and their guiding role in creating a peaceful and very effective counter-pole to Washington’s NWO, is giving those who want to own-it-all, a run for their digitized 1’s and 0’s, magickally alchemized from nothing…

  4. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) on FISA memo: “I think this will not just end with firings, I believe there are people who will go to jail!”

    If only…

    1. Robert Barricklow

      Got to keep both those metaphors & myths alive and well; both obscure as much as they illuminate.

      1. Sorry, I don’t know how that comment posted here, I posted it in another comment section, so it is as out of place as it seems.

  5. So China is attempting to construct it’s own vision of a unipolar world to compete with, and supplant, the one embraced by the Anglo-American elite. China has it’s emigration policy and the US has it’s own variation–immigration. Now, isn’t that curious. Since this is an important lynchpin the success of any policy you tell me who has the upper hand strategically. Immigration didn’t help Rome survive–and neither will it help us. We’ve seen several examples of eastern aggression in history where Rome’s expansion was held in check. Whatever this portends you can rest assured the DARPA enthusiasts and their evangelical dominionist allies are going absolutely bonkers.

    1. Robert Barricklow

      Rome eventually hired private mercenaries;
      only not just the Erik Princes,
      but real foreign mercenaries.
      Now Erik Prince is wanting to finance his private army.
      thru trillions in Afghanistan mineral/plant[poppy] wealth.

      Oh, what a tangled web we weave
      when first we practice oligarchy schemes
      by economic Ponzi means..

      1. We are thinking alike. This isn’t just coming. It’s starting now–one soldier at a time.

  6. I am leary of this story given that China and India have had a shaky relationship for more than sixty years. China heavy-handedness at times hasn’t at times helped though I think China will work this out in the long run.

    1. Robert Barricklow

      India leans more towards the private power privatized model than China. Its economic growth has resulted in bringing the equivalent of the entire US population into the middle-income bracket, thru a combination of exports and imports. In an attempt to forestall worker unrest, Chinese policymakers created a second engine of economic growth by heavy investment domestically in public infrastructure, in the years immediately following the financial crisis of 2008[the opposite the private powered USA, India, etc.]; from sophisticated water treatment systems to new cities out of the blue.
      Plus, the country’s high savings rate at roughly 50% is another potential engine of public growth.
      [the opposite of the private powered states].

  7. Yesterday heard an interesting interview about the Hawaii incident. Dr. Dave Janda who has ties to people in DC and worked closely with the Reagan administration said yesterday in an interview with Greg Hunter that that morning he received a call from one of his sources and they started to talk about the Hawaiii incident and the docs take was it was a fat finger. The guy ask him why do you think it took 37 min to cancel? The doc said he couldn’t figure that out. The guy said there was actually a missile fired and was taken down by US defense missiles. He said there is a part of the military in China who backs XI and Trump but also a rogue element. Part of this was in a Chinese sub and was being tracked by Chinese warships. It took them almost 37 minuted to sink the sub, notify the US which notified the people issuing the alert. A nuke was indeed fired at the people there.
    Now the doc stated if the Chinese announce they are going to delay the new crude futures contract then the source is correct. China just announced that it will be delayed until after the Lunar New Year which is on Feb. 23 almost a five weeks delay.
    Sounds like the rogue group also fired at Japan too. Spooky stuff if true! His sources have told him there is currently the largest law enforcement investigation going on in US history taking orders from the White House. Just look at how bad Trump is treated by the MSM from mental health issues to just making things completely up. Sources said that these people realize that that if they cannot get Trump out or a false flag the gig is up. I saw where the Inspector General delivered over 1.2 million pages of documents. The republicans are now saying people are going to jail with one female in Congress saying they are going to arrest those in government in the so called sanctuary cities. Boy things are heating up.

    1. There was also a presumably fake alert in Japan sent out by NHK the major news conglomerate. But according to Corbett .on his Report, this left the Japanese unfazed.

    2. Things are definitely heating up.

      https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-18/explosive-shocking-and-alarming-fisa-memo-set-rock-dc-end-mueller-investigation

      “A source close to the matter tells Fox News that “the memo details the Intelligence Committee’s oversight work for the FBI and Justice, including the controversy over unmasking and FISA surveillance.” An educated guess by anyone who’s been paying attention for the last year leads to the obvious conclusion that the report reveals extensive abuse of power and highly illegal collusion between the Obama administration, the FBI, the DOJ and the Clinton Campaign against Donald Trump and his team during and after the 2016 presidential election.”

      Conjecture/heresay at this point, still though, even the possibility!

    3. Robert Barricklow

      Two power factions.
      The Const I tutional: checks & balances
      or
      the Hillary Bankster checks and spread sheets.

    4. JS (82.221.129.208) also believes it was a Real alert, having gone-off not only over the civilian channels but at Pearl Harbor, Hickam Field, and other military bases. A totally-separate alert system.

      However, JS has the ‘event’ pegged to financial interests, hoping to start a US vs North Korea war via a false-flag nuke attack on Hawaii. JS notes that we should look for the ‘vanishing’ of an Israeli Dolphin 2-class nuclear-missile-armed submarine from their inventory…

      1. Robert Barricklow

        Goshawks
        That has a definitive ring of truth!
        Similar incidents, researched by Webster Tarpley, spoke to that in his 9/11 Synthetic Terror book and to later incidents of missing nukes, in which airmen were killed preventing false flag future incidents.

        Reminds me also of Dr. Farrell’s recent news & views regarding the Las Vegas Saudi Out House assassination attempt.
        Probably has a lot to do w/all those unaccounted for killings going w/banksters, for-your-eyes-only scientists, and other in-the-know personnel.

        A lot of turbulence going down below the media oligarchy’s surface, being purposely obfuscated by mainstream eddies of spin, and other highly paid media attack poodles.

  8. I’d have thought that the chinese were smart enough to do this without sending all of their partners into financial slavery and indebtitude.(its like being ungrateful whilst being in debt…). thats how you enslave a nation, not create partners.. I was pretty sure they wouldnt go the way of the USA..
    Anyway.. Human greediness is always tied closely to Human Misery.. so Im’ not expecting anything to change anytime soon, because the Cult of Self have done a very very very very very good job these last few decades..

    Some historical context :
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Pakistan_Agreement

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Pakistan_Economic_Corridor

    1. Robert Barricklow

      E.O Wilson does an exemplary job of showing
      where that dichotomy of self vs group evolved:
      The Social Conquest of Earth by E. O. Wilson 2015

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