RUSSIA, PIPELINES, AND KOREAN UNIFICATIONJuly 3, 2018
During our last quarterly wrap-up, Catherine Austin Fitts and I briefly discussed the Korean situation, and I advanced the hypothesis that what we were watching unfold was a complete remaking of the geopolitics and financial politics of northeastern Asia and Siberia. I advanced the idea that North Korea would advance along this agenda in fits and starts, two steps forward, one back. Nor could one expect otherwise. I also argued that a non-nuclear North was a win-win situation for everyone.
Moreover, central to my speculations were two key factors: South Korea, and Japan, both of which shoulder enormous industrial plants, and have virtually no internal energy sources that are not nuclear in nature. And for both countries in the wake of the Fukushima disaster, conventional fission energy technologies in the earthquake prone region do not look as "inviting" as they once did. China, too, faces a similar dilemma, for although it does have large rivers and hydrodynamic energy sources available, these will simply not meet its energy needs for its growing industrial plant. And Iran - one of China's close allies - is currently unstable as popular resistance grows to its Islamist regime. (And frankly, I don't think for a moment that Russia or China would be sorry to see that regime go, save only if it was replaced by an American puppet, and given their influence in the region, that may be somewhat, though not entirely, unlikely).
But back to Korea: both Korea's need energy, China needs energy, Japan needs energy. And there's one country, close by to all, that has energy - and lots of it - and it needs trade, markets for that energy and other products, and money: Russia. Oddly enough, China, South Korea, and Japan have lots of money, too. On this basis, I advanced the hypothesis for Ms. Fitts' Solari quarterly wrap- up that what we may be witnessing is the creation of a special kind of "neutral zone", where the Korea's would reunify under strict conditions. In a way, I suspect, given the realities of this situation, that there is little any American administration could do to prevent this from happening in the long run, short of a military intervention in the North. That intervention, given the confluence of interests by the other major powers in the region, could damage American relationships with them for the long term, and drive South Korea and Japan further away.
With that in mind, Mr. E.O. sent along this article, which basically is arguing the same thing:
I suspect, however, that there's more high octane speculation to be had here, than my original "read" of the geopolitical situation. Much has been made of Mr. Trump's visit to the Forbidden City in Beijing, the first western head of state (supposedly) accorded the privilege and honor. According to some internet analysts, Mr. Trump there secretly met with Mr. Kim and, with Mr. Xi's cooperation, Mr. Trump arranged the current deal subsequently revealed in Singapore. The upshot of these analyses is that Mr. Trump is a genius deal-broker and that Mr. Xi and the other players in the area were just along for the ride. Indeed, he may be a genius deal-maker.
But given that coalescence of geopolitical interests between China, Russia, Japan, and the two Korea's, I have to wonder if, rather, Mr. Trump was simply presented with a fait accompli.
The truth probably lies somewhere between "genius" and fait accompli, but what that truth is we have yet to see, but my wager is that it involves the upcoming summit with Mr. Putin, and how Russia, China, and the USA are going to deal with the situation in Iran...
...just a guess, pure speculation, but as always, time will tell...
...see you on the flip side...