Now before we get to today's high octane speculation, which, for the record, I share with G.B. who originally sent the article to me, let me state for the record that I have no difficulty believing that Israel has, and is probably continuing, to conduct air strikes inside of Iraq against Iranian or Iranian-backed targets. It certainly has the capability, and more importantly the will and motivation to do so, as the article subsequently makes clear.
But what leads me to my high octane speculation of the day is that under normal circumstances, Israel has seldom denied specific airstrikes against specific targets. Normally, it admits it has done so after the fact. This, however, has not been done in this case, it has only been implied, which leaves the door open that this explosion may have been brought about by different means: agents in place on the ground in an act of sabotage, or perhaps by more exotic means, and it's these latter possibilities I want to explore in my high octane speculation, and in the context not only of those curious Russian explosions, but also in the context of those Chinese chemical plant explosions a few years ago. The Tianjin chemical plant explosion in China continues to occupy my mind, because as I have pointed out in previous blogs about that story, the crater left by that explosion was both narrow and very deep. In other words, it is not the type of crater signature that one would normally associate with chemical explosions, which would normally be both wider and shallower. At the time, this odd signature prompted me and others to conclude that perhaps a space-based "rod of God" kinetic weapon might have been used. This speculation gained some credence when, during a press conference, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff stated that "all options were on the table" regarding North Korea. A reporter asked him if that included "kinetic weapons" and his response was "yes."
All this to say that it's been my suspicion that we are looking perhaps at some form of exotic warfare taking place with these munitions plants/dumps/chemical plant explosions, perhaps cyber warfare, or the use of other more exotic technologies. Thus far, those events have included facilities in China and Russia, the "big two" in the Shanghai accords nations, but with this event, the pattern - if indeed it is that - has now reached out to include another major player in that bloc: Iran. if this speculation has any merit, then one should expect that the pattern will eventually encompass similar types of facilities inside Iran itself.
The problem, of course, is something I've often mentioned with this type of covert warfare: "covert operations" is a game that two can play. So if munitions plants or ammo dumps suddenly start exploding in the West, then in my opinion it's a sure bet that my covert warfare model is true. But even without that, if similar events suddenly start to happen in Iran, then in my opinion it's also an equally sure bet.
See you on the flip side...