ISRAEL, INDIA, CHINA, AND AWACS

ISRAEL, INDIA, CHINA, AND AWACS

September 8, 2020 By Joseph P. Farrell

There's more confirmation coming in that China is being isolated by the major movers and shakers, and this time its Israel that is refusing to sell the Communist country sensitive military technology, according to this article shared by L.G.L.R.:

Israel Won't Sell AWACS to China, But Agrees to Sell Them to India

As the article notes, Israel and China have a history of military cooperation with Israel being a major arms supplier to that country:

Politics has always made for strange bedfellows and among the strangest have been those between the State of Israel and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Israel was the first country in the Middle East to recognize the PRC as the legitimate government of China, but it wasn’t until 1992 that China established normal diplomatic relations with Israel. Both countries have been known to largely ignore each other’s reported human rights violations, but yet China is one of the few nations in the world to concurrently maintain warm relations with Israel and Palestine as well as the Muslim world at large.

The two countries’ military cooperation goes back to the 1980s, and Israel ranks second only to Russia as a weapons system provider to China.

As I've been arguing lately, however, China's flooding problems, which have led to some severe stresses on its agriculture and industry, combined with American trade deals and with what appear to be some internal factional fissures within the Chinese Communist Party Politburo itself, may have forced Xi Jinping to "lash out" and provoke the recent border clash with India. Whatever the reasons for that clash, the diplomatic and geopolitical fallout from that clash have been a disaster for China, as India reacted swiftly to mend fences with other allies, and in an unprecedented move, requested American troops for the region of the Chinese  incursion.

These events have led me to speculate in recent weeks that we might be seeing the quiet formation of a "quadruple entente", something less than a formal system of alliances, but something more than just agreement that Communist China has become a problem that has to be dealt with. Russia, for example, has recently stalled delivery of its S4o0 surface to air missile defense system to that country amid accusations of Chinese espionage against that country, and outright theft of its military technologies. Japan, we know, has engaged diplomatically with Russia under Shinzo Abe over a broad range of economic cooperation issues, and has recently offered to help fund the infrastructure rebuild necessary for the USA to reopen its large naval base in Subic Bay, the Philippines.

Now Israel has added insult to injury by refusing to sell its own AWACS system to China, while approving its sale to India, which already has purchased a number of the Israeli system:

Israel has refused to sell its Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft to China—but Jerusalem has announced that a long-stalled deal to sell the early warning aircraft to India is still now moving forward. India has previously acquired three of the aircraft in 2004 and the Indian cabinet has sought for years to approve two more.

According to Harinder Mishra, a journalist living in Jerusalem, the long-stalled deal is a part of a $2 billion worth purchase agreement between India and Israel. This could occur under an agreement in which India and Israel would jointly manufacture arms supplies and defense equipment. Mishra reportedly said that the AWACS in service with the Indian military have been used to monitor Pakistani airspace and this includes the land around Islamabad and Rawalpindi.

There's also, according to the article, another two factors weighing in the background:

It was also reported that twenty years ago Washington applied pressure on Israel to nix a sale of its AWACS to China, as it was out of fear the spy plane could give China a strategic advantage over America’s AWACS aircraft in any conflict involving Taiwan.

That acted as a serious dent in Israel-China ties, and while Beijing has tried to establish closer ties, the government in Jerusalem cannot afford to weaken its ties with the United States. Now the fact that Israel will sell the aircraft to India but not to China could likely further cool the relations between Jerusalem and Beijing.

One other factor to consider is that China already operates its own AWACS, which it developed after the 2001 deal to buy the Israel platform was canceled. As a result, it is unclear why it was interested in the Israeli version, except to have access to foreign military technology.

In other words, those two factors are Taiwan, and the Chinese practice of buying technology, reverse engineering it, and producing its own versions. This is, in fact, how China has emerged as a major military power over the past few decades, from its purchase, reverse engineering, and modifications of Russian rocket technology for its space program, to its use of essentially western technology as the seed for its computer chip industry. More recently, we've seen the attempted theft of biowarfare technology from Canada, and the arrest of Harvard's Dr. Charles Lieber for allegedly not disclosing his financial relationship to China - via its laboratory in Wuhan - to federal authorities.

Israel's turnabout is not accidental, and in my opinion, signals that my "quadruple entente" idea may be gaining traction, the test, now, will be how the Japanese Liberal Democrat Party moves to fill the vacancy of retiring Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

See you on the flip side...