MORE GEOPOLITICAL FALLOUT FROM COVID? RUSSIA RECONSIDERING ONE BELT

MORE GEOPOLITICAL FALLOUT FROM COVID? RUSSIA RECONSIDERING ONE BELT ...

Today's blogging focal point is an article that was spotted by E.G., to whom a big thank you for passing is along, because the article tends to confirm some speculations and predictions I've been making over the last few weeks regarding China, India, Russia, Japan, and the fall-out from the planscamdemic, or if you prefer, the scamplandemic.

To put this article in a bit of context, I've been arguing in some blogs and on various News and Views from the Nefarium, that covid has put China into a delicate geopolitical position,  and that's being considerate. The reality is that China seems to be in a world of hurt. A brief review of the situation:

1) Much of world opinion blames the Chinese government for the outbreak, and then for not immediately coming clean with the rest of the world. Regardless of the degree of of guilt of the Chinese government or lack thereof, the perception of China's mishandling of the affair is widespread, as is the suspicion that covid may have been a biowarfare project, and some speculate its release was not accidental. These suspicions have been elevated due to the connections of both arrested Harvard chemistry professor and nano-technology expert Dr. Charles Lieber, who allegedly had connections with the Wuhan laboratory, and by the alleged connections of Dr. Anthony Fauci to the same.

2) As a result of this perception, many countries, including Australia, various Western Pacific nations including Vietnam, Japan, and finally the United States, are pulling more industry out of China, and are attempting to secure their supply lines of essentials, particularly pharmaceuticals. In short, covid and its implications including reliance on Chinese pharmaceuticals is increasingly seen as a national security issue. In effect, covid has accelerated the reshoring of industry from China to North America, Australia, and elsewhere.

3) This all comes on top of indicators of internal factional tensions within the Communist Chinese Party. Depending on the analyst one reads or consults, Xi Jinping is either attempting to weed out the last strong internal opposition within the top echelons of the party, or is facing strong challenges to his leadership, or both.

4) These internal party tensions have been further exacerbated by unprecedented flooding of the Yangste River, where several dams, including the massive Three Gorges Dam upstream of Wuhan, are under severe pressure. I've entertained the speculation that this may be weather warfare, and I still entertain that speculation. Internet rumors of leaks and even water over-topping the Three Gorges are rampant on the internet, but I've found no solid substantiation of these claims. But in any case, the flooding has all but ruined this year's harvest for China, and it must now turn to even more foreign imports. The flooding has crippled China's economy at a time when many countries are moving their industry out of China, as noted above, and at a time when world opinion has turned solidly against the current Chinese government. The timing of China's weather difficulties strongly suggest weather warfare  to me.

5) Add to this China's apparent increasing bellicosity. The border clash with India in recent weeks did not apparently go well for China's People's Liberation Army as indicators are that India's military gave the PLA a bloody nose. At the same time, China made noises about reclaiming Vladivostok, as Russia stalled deliveries of its S400 missile and air defense system to China, while not-too-subtly delivering the same system to India. India, in turn, extended a large line of credit to Russia, and I've even entertained a high octane speculation that some of this money may even have come from the USA, with a nod and a wink to India to pass it along, thus  publicly avoiding American economic sanctions on Russia. India further participated in joint naval exercises with the USA, and has now welcomed American troops in the area of the recent border clash. In neither Russia's nor India's case are the messages "sutble." They're very direct, and to underscore the point, Mr. Putin recently moved more missile batteries into Siberia.

6) All of this has led to my speculation that the growth of China, and its bellicosity, coupled with the structural weaknesses of its economy and regime, make it an unreliable partner, which, coupled with its stated goal to dominate the world economically, are leading to the formation of a "quadruple entente," consisting of India, Japan, Russia, and the United States; not an alliance, but an "understanding" of the nature of the common threat, and a willingness to cooperate with respect to it as far as mutual interests will allow.

With all this in mind, I've been arguing that Russia's always delicate partnership with China in the one belt one road initiative could come under 'reevaluation', as an increasingly desperate China might lash out - as it has been doing in India - at Russia. Russia, like everyone else, has had its sensitive technologies stolen by the Chinese government. Russia has its own pressing reasons to want to build out its own version of the silk road in resource-rich but population-poor Siberia with a vast expansion of roads and high-speed railroad. China's burgeoning population and close proximity to Siberia make it a tempting target, regardless of the official rhetoric of friendliness with Moscow. But Russia does not need China's expertise (or capital) to fulfill its own "northern silk road" dreams: Japan has both, and both countries have good reason to reach some economic and technological understandings, and this is what we've seen them doing.

In short, I've been arguing to watch for signs from Russia that its attitude to China is changing.

Wee, as I said at the beginning of this blog, E.G. shared the following article, which tends to confirm my predictions to some degree that this process is already under way in Moscow:

Is Russia Backtracking On BRI?

Note firstly that the analysis of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Far Eastern Studies appears to be suggesting the same thing as I've suggested, by seeking an expanded relationship with India:

These are the critical assessment of BRI last month by the influential Director of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Far Eastern Studies and India's eagerness all summer to court the Eurasian Great Power into joining its so-called “Indo-Pacific” projects.

Secondly, the article notes that the perception many in the West have that Russia is a part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is mistaken:

About the first of these two developments, Alexey Maslov's Russian-language interview to Interfax should be Google Translated and read in full by anyone interested in learning more about Russia's evolving views towards BRI. He was surprisingly candid for a Russian expert of his caliber in discussing the challenges inherent to this global series of megaprojects, as well as China's grand strategic motivation in pursuing them in the first place. Maslov also implied some criticisms of it when sharing his assessment that China basically wants to take control of the global economy through these means, which also includes the use of so-called “debt traps”. Even more interestingly, he claimed that Russia isn't a part of BRI contrary to conventional belief, but nevertheless seeks to pragmatically cooperate with it.

Thirdly, the article notes India's role as a catalyst in attempting to broker, if not a quadruple, then at least a triple entente of mutual economic and geopolitical interests:

The second development is less surprising since it's been tracked for a while now, and that's India's eagerness to court Russia into joining its so-called “Indo-Pacific” projects. What was unexpected, however, was the spree of proposals that were made all summer. The first move came during the joint online conference between the Russian International Affairs Council and the Indian Council of World Affairs in mid-July. The Indian Ambassador to Russia encouraged his host country to work more closely with his homeland in this trans-oceanic sphere, provocatively drawing particular attention to safeguarding “international rules and law” in the South China Sea where both have invested in Vietnamese offshore energy deposits contested by China. A suggestion was also made to undertake joint projects in Asia and Africa, which hints at Russia joining the Indo-Japanese “Asia-Africa Growth Corridor” (AAGC) like the author previously proposed....India's envisioned “Indo-Pacific” partnership with Russia isn't just economic, but also carries with it very important military and diplomatic dimensions. The Economic Times reported in late July that the two countries might sign a LEMOA-like military logistics pact by the end of the year, the possible implications of which the author analyzed in December 2018 in his piece about how “A Russian-Indian LEMOA Could Lead To Logistics Pacts With Other Littoral States”. The other related development was Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla officially discussing “the proposal for a Russia-India-Japan trilateral mechanism with the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Igor Morgulov, on August 4.” While the official purpose of such a structure would likely be presented as advancing Russia's possible participation in the AAGC, there's no doubt that it would be perceived in practice as a “passively aggressive” move by China considering the context of its ongoing rivalry with those two Asian Great Powers. (Emphasis added)

To translate: that means Russia will not openly antagonize China, and is unlikely to enter into such formal arrangements all at once, but by a series of coordinated steps, taking advantage of any opportunities as may arise, including Chinese provocations, which would include further territorial claims on Russia, or more espionage and theft of Russian technology. Russia can afford to play that game, as there's little chance that China will change its behavior, and Tokyo and New Delhi well know Russia's difficult position, and that such a step-by-step process will have to be the name of the game in the short term. In the meantime, Russia will certainly participate in "informal discussions" and may even sign the occasional "memorandum of understanding" or two. Indeed, the article mentions at some length Russia's careful "balance of power" diplomacy with respect to India and China.

Balance Russia will continue to have to do for the short term. But the fact remains, that it's the Chinese regime itself and the way it views its role in the world as a power intending to dominate it, that will eventually force Russia to make those arrangements with India and Japan. The prize is Siberia, and China wants it, one way or another. Russia cannot afford to let it go, and for that matter, neither can Japan, India, or the USA.

And that's why I think, in the long term, a "quadruple entente" with respect to China is an inevitability.

See you on the flip side...

 

 

38 thoughts on “ MORE GEOPOLITICAL FALLOUT FROM COVID? RUSSIA RECONSIDERING ONE BELT ...”

  1. Robert Barricklow

    Catching up on some news.
    I wondered why the NWO was pulling a color revolution on Aleksander Lukashenko, long-standing sole-ruler of Belarus?
    I got my answer. Covid1984.
    It seems Lukashenko pulled a South Dakota/Sweden; We ain’t playing the NWO covid1984 virus power games.
    No shut downs.
    No NWO respect.

    http://williamengdahl.com/englishNEO21Aug2020.php

    1. Robert Barricklow

      Sweden gets a New World Order pass for playing their cashless games and jumping through other NWO hoops.

      South Dakota?
      Suffers from the NWO press attacks/frames?

  2. https://www.bitc hute.com/video/swXk11hxB5U/?list=notifications&randomize=false

    LATEST NEWS FROM FASCIST MELBOURNE

    Melbourne police arrest a pregnant mother for discussing protesting tyranny on Facebook.

      1. This made me feel physically sick.

        Andrews = CCP money.

        Fortunately, the media in Australia seems to have picked it up and condemned it and are calling for Andrews to be sacked. Thank goodness they videoed it. I’d like to get my hands on the coppers who thought they were big men that day arresting a pregnant woman for zero crime in her own home.

    1. I propose the setting up of the “Doktor-Megele Preis”, there would be lots of candidates for this prize.

    2. Yeah, what’s going on in Australia is sickening. I always thought the Aussies had more “fight” in them. Then again, I would have thought the same about Americans until very recently.

      Who’s Australia allied with in the geopolitics of the region? I’ve always assumed it was an outpost of the Commonwealth / City of London empire. I’ve also been thinking it might be a testing ground for what the Anglo-American elite hope to implement in the English-speaking Northern Hemisphere later this year, when it’s winter up here.

  3. Feels like setups for Four Horsemen.

    All the crop failures worldwide (except Russia?), all the food storage facilities blowing up, all the farms and food processors shuttered – about the only food trauma we have not seen so far is a train or boat full of food destroyed. Wait we did see a train of grain derailed last week. So there’s famine.

    Now my most fringe chatter through Deborah Tavares has imagination running wild on a massive sick and die off of 60GHz attacks throughout the USSA labeled as cv1984 – part deux. That would get everyone’s attention as Billious and his husband chuckled smugly about. That gets a credibility boost for the openly failing cv1984 narrative. It also purges rolls of healthcare/pension overhang in failed state Amerika.

    1. War seems the obvious setup with the CCP taking the brunt of the nations’ ill intent. The only horse left is the devil’s and oh yeh, they covered that well with all the blackmailed compromised media and political personalities. What kind of movies compromising Xe were the Rottenchildren able to get?

  4. Oceania, Eurasia, Eastasia = Bunting Cloverleaf?

    With Israel at the center?

    With Israel’s tech siphoned out of the USSA (even more now with cv1984) into mostly Russia and more lately into the CCP.

  5. How does the Bunting Cloverleaf figure into this? What’s in Israel’s / Rottenchildren’s interests in this area? How is it that we see all political/financial powers turning openly fascist in a CCP methodology through Billious Gates Rockhead. China hardly needs to send troops into Oz nor NZ. At the rate things are going though, troops will probably be vacationing there soon.

    1. Zendo– sounds like you watch Brendan O’Connell’s excellent channel who has long laid out the Bunting Cloverleaf Talpiot penetration. If not, check him out. If so… why not give him credit for his hard work?

  6. I never thought a Russia-China alliance was going to happen. It’s just too fundamental that China needs new lands for its large population, that climate warming is making Siberia all the more desirable into the future, and that China’s massive GDP and population make it a present day and long term existential threat to Russia.
    If Chinese growth continues, it’s just possible that a mid latitude alliance of dominantly Christian nations might circle the globe.

  7. The point is missing, that the communist overthrow of Russia and China was Wall Street regime change in Russia and China.

    Fall of Soviet became a Wall Street feeding frenzy in Russia, and now China is on the menu, in expectation of a communist collapse.

    Papal filioque is the forerunner of communism, as the means to cause regime change, by Jesuit divide et impera.

    That makes pope Nero-Caligula an obvious nuke target, as the Vatican hub of the Jesuit octopus.

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/ccsirsai003ocg3/featherless-chicken.jpg

    1. VATICAN POTHOLE

      Pope Nero-Caligula, the toxic waste,
      is in a frenetic running haste,
      to avoid the coming feel
      of iron rod steel,
      through his pothole to taste.

  8. It would not surprise me if the Three Gorges Dam “failed” putting China in a most desperate situation thus forcing it to abandon its long term goals into more rash actions. A single point failure which would leave China in an untenable position. An opportunity some would seize upon rather than let go to waste.
    One might entertain the thought that it was designed for just this in mind. A hold card to be played at the appropriate time; and a more appropriate time has never existed.
    Speculation to be sure, but not that far fetched.

  9. I think Dr Joseph you might have missed this

    First this happened
    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-hopes-russia-will-join-indo-pacific-with-japan-trilateral/articleshow/77450048.cms

    India asked for Russia to join Indo Pacific grouping with Japan .

    Then India pulled out of exercise where China was participating

    thehindu.com/news/national/india-decides-to-pull-out-of-kavkaz-2020-military-exercise-on-russia-due-to-chinese-participation/article32475212.ece

    Now India Russia going with major exercise in Andaman Sea
    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/indian-navy-to-hold-mega-exercise-with-russia-in-bay-of-bengal-on-september-4-5/articleshow/77875520.cms#:~:text=India%2DRussia%20(INDRA)%20Exercises,in%20India%20in%20December%202019.

    This is the area where very big Malabar exercises happen, and also China afraid of Mallaca dilemma.

    So I dont think Russia is holding back, obviously, they are not going all gun blazing, but they indeed giving subtle reactions, that they are not happy.

    1. Also I might add India US moving toward FTA

      https://www.livemint.com/news/india/piyush-goyal-signals-india-us-trade-package-may-not-be-signed-before-us-elections-11598972280281.html

      India obviously wants to scuttle RCEP and want to create a separate economic grouping without China. But might be Japan also doesn’t like RCEP. but they are not openly criticizing RCEP.

      So a lot of things are at play, Indonesia wants to play its own game.

      Australia afraid of future nuclear subs of India, and Indian plan to deploy SSBN south of Deigo Garcia and Australians are not happy about it. But US gave them a STFU call, so they are not saying anything against India. Its messy.

  10. By the way, is there any news about exactly where Dr. Lieber is now and the status of the indictment against him in January?

  11. An astute reading of the situation on Dr. Farrell’s part, IMO. I’m not as convinced the U.S. is part of the entente, but it would make sense. I’m curious what game the City of London is playing in all this.

    But about Russia: Why is it making these overtures to India right now? Is it because the Russians no longer see the U.S. as powerful or reliable enough to keep Chinese ambitions at bay? From the outside, the U.S. must look like a madhouse on fire, with shrieking cretins and dynamite-juggling maniacs in charge of the asylum. (Much as it looks to some of us here on the inside!) Or maybe Russia is afraid the Democrats might gain the White House, or more of Congress, in November? Or that the U.S. might spiral into violent internal chaos after the election? Or maybe they’ve just written us off as nedogovorosposobniy, incapable of negotiation and agreement.

    1. I think you dont know, Russia never gave nuclear tech to anyone (atleast willingly), there was a case in Soviet China deals, but that was 50s and 60s.

      I can tell you, ISRO wanted to join the Artemis program, but NASA said no to there faces. And after that India signed all astronauts training program and building an LEO space station with Russia.

      Whatever you think you can’t even imagine the closeness of India Russia, yeah they have interests. And we understand, but they never jeopardize security neither we do.

      So don’t ever think India joined the US camp, we never do that. India Russian ties are on next level, which US never can match. India playing its own game.

      And we have a history with the Soviets, how Putin can forget the closeness of Indira Gandhi with Brezhnev. R&AW and KGB fought side by side in Afghanistan. Who you think created the northern alliance in Afghanistan? And might the biggest base of KGB outside Moscow during Cold war was in New Delhi.

      And closeness is so much, Soviets or Russians never gave away there MIRV tech to anyone, but only to India.

      US India relations are of convenience, but dont think India in US camp.

      1. Also, I want to add a little bit more,,,

        Who supplied the Tech of Ku band/Ka band seekers to India, which allowed India to do ASAT tests.

        Just after the ASAT test, there was a report from RAND that said US shoudnt everything to stop India from getting hypersonic missile tech.
        Just after 1 month, India Russia signed a Transfer of Technology agreement of a hypersonic missile, and first test by 2023.

        Furthermore, India allow no other country to build reactors in India, but only Russia gets a contract of building VVER series PWR reactors in India.

        Obviously these are not a military one, but still, they are the only one who gets the contract.

        And also, even after the US threatening India not to sign the S400 contract with Russia, the Indian military wanted to buy Arrow 2/3. But Putin asked for money from Mudi, and just within a month or so we signed a contract for S400.

  12. Thoughts brought-up by this column:

    Top Chinese policy-makers have read the ‘classic’ Confessions of an Economic Hit Man and have adapted it to their foreign stratagems. Karma’s a b!tch. (Just got my comment ‘disappeared’ for b!tch…)

    One of Putin’s pastimes is the martial art of judo. This consists of throwing techniques and grappling techniques, rather than Karate Kid movements. One would presume that this carries-over into his geopolitical mindset. So, I would expect more ‘subtle’ strategies than power plays…

    The current geopolitical situation reminds me of the alliances and betrayals in 1984. Three fictional states (Oceania, Eurasia, Eastasia) are always in a state of conflict, keeping the masses propagandized one way or another. Sounds familiar…

    The overt switch to “China as enemy” began long before covid reared its ugly head. It began with the warhawks/chickenhawks/dual-citizens around Trump after his inauguration. The drumbeat since then has been never-ending. I suspect it results from strategic planning way-up at what Miles Mathis calls “Phoenician Navy” levels. Likely a Problem->Reaction->Solution play, given their past machinations…

    1. I agree about the Orwellian overtones (Oceania, Eurasia, Eastasia). I do sometimes wonder if all the geopolitical conflicts are some kind of elaborate, macabre theater put on to keep the masses in fear and under control.

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