RUSSIA WALKING AWAY FROM THE EUOctober 26, 2020
I don't think anyone questions that there are major realignments under way in the globe, from the emergence of "The Quad" or what I've been calling the "Quadruple Entente", to BREXIT, the increased tensions between the USA and China, and now, between Russia and the E.U., and for the latter, one may conveniently substitute "Germany" for the E.U., that is, at least according to this article by Tom Luongo shared by V.T.(a big thank you for doing so):
As Mr. Luongo perceptively notes in the article, there appears to have been a sea change in Russia's rhetoric vis-a-vis the European Union:
Russia is done with the European Union. At last week’s Valdai Discussion Forum Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made this quite clear with this statement.
Those people in the West who are responsible for foreign policy and do not understand the necessity of mutually respectable conversation–well, we must simply stop for a while communicate with them. Especially since Ursula von der Leyen states that geopolitical partnership with current Russia’s leadership is impossible. If this is the way they want it, so be it. (H/T Andrei Martyanov)
Lavrov’s statements echo a number of statements made in recent months by Russian leadership that there is no opportunity for diplomacy possible with the United States.
We can now add the European Union to that list. Pepe Escobar’s latest piece goes over Lavrov’s comments about the European Union and they are devastating, as devastating as when he and Putin described the U.S. as “Not Agreement Capable” a few years ago.
It's no surprise that the Russians would regard the USA as "not agreement capable," since the political divisions in the USA are as sharp and intense as today as they were prior to the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860. From the Russian point of view, regardless of who wins in the upcoming election, how does one negotiate with one side that has proven it will sell its own national interest down the river for familial benefit, thus demonstrating it can turn on a dime and thus cannot be trusted not to sell any agreement it makes to the highest bidder, or with another side that is weakened by the perpetual animosity of the first? Turning the clock back a bit, that "first side," Mr. Globaloney's side, gave the Russians solemn assurances that there would be no NATO expansion into the former Soviet Republics, no stationing of American or other NATO forces in Eastern European countries of the former Warsaw Pact, and then promptly turned around and did precisely that with engineered coups in The Ukraine, panzergrenadiers and Luftwaffe squadrons in Croatia after the crack-up of Yugoslavia, American forces in Poland and missile defense systems in Romania, and so on. All these things were begun under Poppy Bush, and continued under America's first adolescent president Bill Clinton, Bush the Stupid, and Hussein O'Bummer, with considerable help from Mad Madam Merkel and (as Marin Le Pen once styled him) her "vice-chancellor" Francois Holland, all lackeys to Mr. Globaloney's vision of the world.
But now it seems Russia's through with the E.U. as well:
But as badly as the U.S. has acted in recent years in international relations, unilaterally abrogating treaty after treaty, nominally with the goal of remaking them to be more inclusive, Lavrov’s upbraiding of the current leadership of the European Union is far worse.
Because they have gone along with, if not openly assisted, every U.S.-backed provocation against Russia for their own advantage. From Ukraine to MH-17, to Skripal to now Belarus and the ridiculous Navalny poisoning, the EU has proved to be worse than the U.S.
Because there can be no doubt the U.S. views Russia as an antagonist. We’re quite clear about this. But Europe plays off U.S. aggression, hiding in the U.S.’s skirts while telling Russia, usually through German Chancellor Angela Merkel, “Be patient, we are reluctantly going along with this.” But really they’re happy about it.
So Russia is ultimately caught between the U.S. and Europe on all basic issues of trade, politics, and international law.
Adding to Lavrov’s frustration, Andrei Martyanov, as an astute analyst on Russian politics as anyone, is correct when he says (H/T to Pepe Escobar).
You do not negotiate with monkeys, you treat them nicely, you make sure that they are not abused, but you don’t negotiate with them, same as you don’t negotiate with toddlers. They want to have their Navalny as their toy–let them. I call on Russia to start wrapping economic activity up with EU for a long time. They buy Russia’s hydrocarbons and hi-tech, fine. Other than that, any other activity should be dramatically reduced and necessity of the Iron Curtain must not be doubted anymore.
And the truth is that Russia is dealing with monkeys in the U.S. and toddlers in the EU. And Martanyov’s right that it’s time Putin et.al. simply turn their backs on the West and move forward.
And where will Russia "move forward"? Well, as I've been suggesting of late, it moves forward in Asia, and particularly with reference to India and Japan, which it needs as much as they need it as counter-balances to China. And there's another way forward for Russia: direct negotiation on a national basis with the member states of the European Union, bypassing the Brusselsprouts completely. Russia will find the ground more receptive in southern Europe, and to some extent, even in France, than in Germany and its EU client states.
Here there are other developments that may help Russia, specifically, the melt down in the Roman Catholic Church under Francis, who appears at least to this writer to be not so much Roman Catholic in any traditional or identifiable sense, and more of a Globalist-in-a-cassock. For traditionally-minded Catholics in Spain or Italy, already frustrated with failing economies and the unwillingness of the EU (i.e., Germany) to continue to bail them out without considerable strings attached (think Greece), the southern European countries would appear to be ripe for a Russian diplomatic offensive that plays to cultural and economic concerns in those countries.
Is this a prediction? Not exactly, but one should not be surprised if it happens...
See you on the flip side...