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THE ELECTION AND THE GEOPOLITICAL FALLOUT: PART ONE: JAPAN, AND RUSSIA

Since the last American federal election, I've been trying to come to grips with the potential geopolitical fallout from it. In a nutshell, I think they will be predominantly bad, possibly grievous. Here's why.

Over the past  few years, we've seen the emergence of "the Quad," a bloc of Asian major and regional powers emerge, with a common goal of offsetting the enormous economic and geopolitical weight of Communist China. This "Quad", in the opinion of the vast majority of people writing or commenting about it, includes India, Japan, Australia, and the U.S.A. as its major constituents. Indeed, I've blogged about the military logistical assistance pact recently negotiated and formalized by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and India's current Prime Minister Narendra Mohdi. In my opinion, this deal symbolizes the thinking that I believe is privately in the minds of those "Quad" powers that are not the U.S.A., namely, that the U.S.A. is no longer a reliable ally. As the Russians put it, it is "not-agreement-capable," though they maintain their public posture and rhetoric of endorsing the U.S.A.'s role as chief member of that emerging "Quad." In my own personal "version" of the "Quad," which I've been calling the "Quadruple Entente," the real fourth member is Russia, not Australia, but that may change, with the U.S.A., and not Australia, being deleted as a member of the group. I needn't rehearse here why I believe Russia may be a kind of "hidden member" of this bloc as I've done so many times previously. What remains to be explained is why I think the U.S.A., while continuing to be a major factor in the geopolitical calculus of the other members of this group, will become a negative factor in those calculations.

This is founded in two facts. The first is that few nations that are neighbors of Communist China really trust it. That's certainly the case with India and Japan, and one can include Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and others in that group. A case can be argued that this group would include Russia, which has recently been deploying more and more missile batteries to Siberia, and which recently stopped sales of sophisticated missile systems to China, while allowing the same system to be sold to India. The second is the incoming administration of Biden himself. Regardless of where one stands with respect to Biden, his family's relationship to Communist China via his son Hunter will be a factor in the geopolitical calculus of those Quad nations, whether one views the Quad in the conventional sense, or views it as including Russia as a quiet member as in my personal version of it, for they cannot escape the implication that perhaps China now has strong influence in the White House. Some of those nations - particularly Japan and India - might even go so far as to view the situation as being one of a Chinese agent of influence occupying the White House. Accordingly, their posture will again be one of public official support, but strong private reservations. And those strong private reservations will only further strengthen the impulse to craft  security agreements and arrangements to provide for the "worst case scenario" of the U.S.A. no longer being a reliable "agreement capable" ally. The same sort of geopolitical calculus applies to Russia, especially given the relationship of Biden to the events in The Ukraine that heightened tensions between the U.S.A. and Russia. The view from Moscow is thus likely to be one that reinforces the view that the U.S.A. is even more than previously "not-agreement-capable."

Which brings me to today's article shared by W.G.:

On Japan’s Proposed Defense Budget

There are a number of "little things" to note about this article, for they're not so little viewed against this geopolitical context. Firstly, the date: January 7, 2021, just last week, and more importantly, a day after the certification of Biden as President-elect.  Secondly, the article's author is Russian: Vladimir Terehov. With that in mind, note the opening paragraphs:

The proposed budget posted on the Japanese Ministry of Defense website for this agency for the next financial year, subject to approval during the upcoming regular session of parliament, is worthy of attention for several reasons.

First of all, this is because its main provisions attest to the fact that the entire process of the country’s military development has taken on a new quality. One very important intermediate result of this in the coming years will be the formation of full-fledged armed forces that are capable of fulfilling both of the “traditional”objectives that are set for the armed forces in all “normal” states. These objectives are to ensure the defense of these forces’ own country if there is an armed attack from the outside and to commit attacks (naturally, “pre-emptive” ones) to foil a political opponent’s hostile plans.

Until the beginning of the 2000s, in accordance with the bilateral Security Treaty of 1960 fulfilling both these objectives was chiefly the responsibility of the United States. And this despite the fact that the process of gradually forming its own armed forces, which are still called by the euphemism “Self-Defense Forces” was initiated in Japan in the mid-1950s.

It is worth noting that Japan itself does not have the right to provide military assistance to a key ally, due to the restrictions stipulated in Article 9 in its 1947 Constitution, which is still in force. Incidentally, according to that same article Japan also does not have any armed forces – something which long ago started to look like a blatant absurdity. However, that does not bother the Japanese average citizen at all, who stubbornly refuses to “understand” the desire on the part of the country’s leadership to finally bring the country’s Basic Law in line with reality. (Emphasis added)

In other words, the principal opposition in Japan to a full-scale rearmament and expanded military posture, as in Germany, remains the population, which does not want to repeat the militarism of the Axis powers. But "the reality" Mr. Terehov refers to is far distant from that. The reality, with the decline of the U.S.A., and now a possible strong Chinese influence in the White House, is that it is now essential for Japan to overcome its post-war pacifism, and re-assume its role as a great power.

To this end, as a reading of the article will demonstrate, Japan has developed a number of new weapons systems, some basically cloned from American systems, and some - notably anti-missile missiles and cruise missiles - developed entirely by Japan itself. At the very end of this article however, one encounters two statements, both highly important. The first concerns the potential revival of Japanese militarism:

It would seem that this is the right time to wind up a street organ singing propaganda on the theme of “the revival of Japanese militarism”. But the author is not going to become involved in this, because the set of facts given above is clearly not sufficient for this. Until now, one of the main characteristics in all this has not been pointed out – one which reflects the level of the burden created on the country by defense spending. And although the absolute annual figure looks very considerable (about 50 billion USD on average over the past few years, with a slight uptick), it is only 1% of Japan’s GDP. That is, in terms of its relative indicator the Japanese lag several times behind other participants in the pool of leading world players who are doing more or less the same things in the field of military construction.

In other words, after reviewing the various weapons systems deployed or being developed by Japan, and noting the size of its military budget relative to its (enormous) GDP, Mr. Terehov concludes that there's nothing to worry about on that score. Then, at the end of his article, there's this:

Although having modern armed forces also does not hurt. And the Japanese leadership’s awareness of this fact will play an ever-increasing role in the country’s process of nation-building. There is also no doubt that over subsequent years, as Japan “normalizes”, the issues involved in its defense will increasingly be resolved by it relying on its own potential. (Emphasis added)

Japan "relying on its own potential" means Japan not relying on America's potential, and this, notably, Mr. Terehov does not challenge as being a bad thing.

Putting all this together, my high octane speculation here is that this is a clear, though unofficial, message from Russia saying "go ahead, rearm, we don't mind," because a re-armed Japan will be much less subservient to the USA, a counter-weight to China, and a source of capital and technology for Russia that by-passes China, and can aid Russian designs to build out infrastructure in Siberia. The two nations have already tabled the thorny issue of the northern islands Russia seized from Japan at the end of World War Two. And there's another potential lurking in the article: as Russia can get some of the technology and capital it needs to build out Siberian infrastructure from Japan, so too Japan need not necessarily rely on American technology transfers for its military. Than can just as easily come from Russia. So if one hears of such deals in the future, write it down to geopolitical fallout from this election, and to the game really being afoot.

See you on the flip side...

62 thoughts on “THE ELECTION AND THE GEOPOLITICAL FALLOUT: PART ONE: JAPAN, AND RUSSIA”

  1. All interesting comments, I must say!!!

    I’m going out on a limb here & saying there will not BE a Biden administration!! Daniel Lee showed a screen shot of the website of State Dept. yest. which said the Trump administration ended yest. in the aft. That tells me that the Military would be in control now.

    I never listen to what Trump says…..I watch what happens. We all know he is playing a role!!

    Question: SHOULD the Cabal get away with taking down a Pres. right before our eyes in 1963?!! Should they get away with killing over 3,000 people on 9/11?!!

    What is playing out right now has been in the planning for decades….the entire world is going through a Reset!! We keep forgetting that probably some of our “cousins” are involved in this process, as well.

    How fortunate that we get a Ringside Seat in this grand spectacle that is unfolding before us!! 😉

  2. Dr. Farrell – I think you’re on target with this analysis, which seems (to me, anyway) less speculation than a reasonable argument based on geopolitical realities. It will be interesting to see where Germany ends up placing itself on the geopolitical chessboard vis-à-vis China and Russia.

  3. “Not until I went into the churches of America and heard her pulpits aflame with righteousness did I understand the secret of her genius and power. America is great because she is good, and if America ever ceases to be good, she will cease to be great.”

    Fifty years after Adams had said it and forty-some years after Franklin had said it, Tocqueville with his own eyes saw the evidence of this wherever he went. For him it was in escapable: “The secret to American freedom was American virtue.”

    Book “If You Can Keep It” by Eric Metaxas

  4. Like several other democracies, facing an “Unrestricted Warfare” front through “soft power” manipulation and an infiltration of its domestic populace of the Party, for the Party, by the Party, Japan is in a similar bind in that they’re very close to the geography of causality as is S Korea. The “I” word [insur——-], through soft power and subtle seditious means, is under way on several continents. SARS-CoV-2 has forced the Party to up their gain(s) where possible and abandon their timeline(s). That has put other countries front and center as targets for their own diminution, should they choose that road ahead.

    The complexity on the western Pacific Rim has become far more volatile because of the shear disproportionate population numbers. One question might come up, “Are those lesser populated countries there and other worldly countries up to the task of allocating their resources and personnel to maintain sovereignty of their own charges?” Some better able than others. As a coalition better able than as a singular sovereign nation.

    Not one to add a flashpoint to your “high octane speculations,” but there is this thing called “blockchain,” that isn’t getting media coverage. Big money is probably jockeying for best positions and profits. The Party might be a notorious thief but they’re not a true capitalist as they need to be in the big game of world finance as they try to convince the rest that already know better.

    Defense budgets are as much a distraction as N Korea’s recent claims of upping their nucl— footprint because of an imaginary enemy.

  5. But then there is the question of why is China is hated and feared. Is it because the Chinese writing may be a way to break the Tower of Babel confusion of tongues by creating a universal writing system. The idea sends chills down the spines of the servants of El who also goes under the two alias of Yahweh and Allah. By the way Joseph your News and Views of 01/07/21 was mention on UK Column today.

    1. I think China double crossed the globalists or planned to and thus proved they can’t be trusted in that position. Plus I suspect the Middle East peace deals will grow and instead of forcibly Islamafying Europe (as they almost began to do when some European nations used Trump to back off immigration and go back to nationalism) they will go back to unrestricted immigration again. Remember Turkey’s postering and EU immigrants getting itchy, that was likely a warning. Probably won’t bring ISIS back unless they have to. Eventually they will push into China I suspect and use treatment of the Muslims there as the justification. Why Islam, because it accept slavery and that’s what psychopaths dream about.

  6. States have tremendous power and sovereignty when they decide to exercise it. While having insane, corrupt radicals controlling the Federal government is worrying; what they can actually achieve is dependent upon how well if at all the individual states go along with their mad decrees. Some have said TPTB want to break up the US and build up the Middle East as the next super power. This may be what is about to take place and this just sets the stage. China just thinks it will be the next super power. Nobody wants that so they are in for disappointment. Lots of alternative news sites have turned out to be psyops so I will be deleting them from my list to watch soon. Trump had me fooled that he was playing 5D chess but now it looks like all those talking heads may have been a psyop for why Trump was constantly failing to drain the swamp and protect the Constitution.

    1. I’m of two minds on that.
      [Sign of the cognitive dissonance times.]
      I want to believe; but many of these Trump sites, lack follow-through. Meaning they get tripped up in their own worldviews, negating their narrative. I have yet to find one[other than those tried and true: this one; CAF’s one; the Saker; and a few others] that has the real skinny on Q-like scenarios/hope porn.
      But that could be because,
      they’re playing everybody,
      including their enemies.

      Still I want to believe.
      In other word’s I have faith in the good men
      & women of spirit in this fight.
      So, I see the game as still afoot;
      and Trump is still in that good fight.

      1. I think most of them are intelligence operations and paid to do what they do. And Trump was in on it. Trump had his own agenda I suspect and just used patriots to get in office. And these psyops operatives probably are taking money from both sides and have dual uses. The left wants to use them to create radical right wingers and Trumps just liked them covering for his real agenda. Evidently the dual party of fraudsters in congress and the senate opposed Trumps real agenda and those of those Trump worked for. Who did he work for? The people his son in law worked for.

        1. Yes, that goes w/the never-ending business as usual; stealing from the public trough.
          Only now, it’s morphed into a Siegfried & Roy act of disappearing funds, beyond an even a industrial belief scale!

          Bullwinkle’s sleeves are gone, w/hands holding nothing.

          Does the Moose dare say,
          they’ve gone underground
          and off-world?

      2. RB – When you say you want to believe, I sympathize. The funny thing is, the strangest parallel just came to mind… I once saw a slogan somewhere, in reference to UFOs/aliens, and it was precisely “I want to believe.” I forget the details, but the context was a group of UFO “cultist” types (not serious UFO researchers). At times, I wonder whether there’s been a deliberate attempt to create a kind of cult around Trump. I’ve never followed any of the sites where people have apparently gotten “leaks” and “insider info” about Trump’s supposed plans over the years, so I don’t have firsthand knowledge of the subject. But the few snippets of unlikely sounding “hope porn” I’ve heard really make me suspect there’s been an attempt to ensnare Trump voters in a cult-type mentality in order to manipulate and distract them.

          1. AKA Dr Richard Alan Miller .. Timothy Leary ‘groomed’ after he was identified as a youth along with Michael Riconiscuito along with 20plus others in the ongoing Harvard genius / CIA studies the same way Capt Al Hubbard, one of Leary’s handlers, groomed Philip K Dick & others a generation earlier. Wisdom’s Maw.
            https://www.historylink.org/File/20830

    2. The more I think about this site’s contributors, the more I realize that the collective experience and insight here offers superior analysis in geopolitical matters than in most places. The intuitions and instincts here are far more robust and accurate than most of the whistle blower platforms. Thank you all for being here.

  7. Frame:
    I prefer to view this blog in a 20th Worst Century world/frame; in other a cognitive dissonance frame. Like in quantum physics; there a two states[literally]: the Trump State[national, ‘normal]/the Bidet State[an international toilet State, fit for inhuman Queens & Kings w/countless mind-controlled slaves.
    Does it all depend upon the observer? Or, an intent; so strong it collapse the power curve[wave]?
    … to today’s blog[deuces wild]
    binaries and/or analogues

    Several primaries reasons it will be bad.
    One/off) The Uncertainty Principal
    Deux/on) Bad players galore love a crisis; especially an engineered one.
    [remember, in a cognitive dissonance world; counting to three 1+2 = 3/a quantum surface]
    Don’t go Abbott & Costello on me.
    Whose on 1st?

    I must interject on Chinese Trust.
    [apparently the Congre$$ & $enate trust their money and lap top blackmail pic$]
    But I digress…

    Back to basic deuces:
    2 countries can’t be trusted in this ‘quad” context: USA & China.
    [are they One System/two countries?]
    But I digre$$]

    Now “we’re” getting to the crux of the quantum mechanics/Chinese agents of influence in the U.S executive/legislative & judicial branches.
    [Up a tree w/o a Trump]

    Problem?
    A brainwashed population.
    A no-brainer problem in more ways than binary[deux]

    Unfortunately, I’m late …
    White Rabbit

      1. Goshawks, after I watched/read part one. I’m thinking; what about the plate the ‘particle ‘ is hitting. I see where he is using a crystal plate/mirror and and different elements. But how about the plate is returning/creating its own force. Maybe it’s making its own energy and interacting with the particle.

        1. Sandygirl, if I am interpreting your comment correctly, it has to do with what physicists call “conservation of energy.” What goes in must come out – exactly. In the case of the photons hitting the plate and being seen, you can interpret it as either the photon bouncing off the plate and back to your eye/instrument or as the photon being absorbed by the plate and then re-emitted back to your eye/instrument. Either way, the net energy is the same. (And remember, the photon being ‘returned’ – to cause it to be seen by the viewer – causes an ultra-tiny ‘recoil’ in the plate.)

          Under the same conservation rules, you could have the plate “make its own energy,” but the plate would also have to “make” an equal-and-opposite-direction energy (instantly) to still have the plate-recoil happen. This ‘option’ would be indistinguishable from the above…

          1. Ok had to look up conservation – ‘the law of conservation of energy states that the total energy of an isolated system remains constant; it is said to be conserved over time.”
            Yes that helped to understand.

    1. onto today’s blog/Part Deux[Deuces Wild]
      So back to the tree analogy.
      In referencing the digital technocratic state; using Germany, is a great propaganda TV land example. Cut 2 2day/Germany myopic approach to optimize tree growth ignored and devalued elements that proved are essential[they literally missed the forest for the trees]-creating optimal growth excluded bushes, plants, birds, and insects from models of timber production but eliminating them from forest almost entirely.

    2. They forever reduced the forest to brittle monoculture environments that lacked the biodiversity to maintain nutrient-rich soil and protect against devastation from disease, etc., etc. It is symbolic of the ideology of high modernism/technocracy: redefining living organisms[like seeds] as machines ‘invented’ by corporations. In this paradigm, not only are human separated from nature, nature is declared dead inert matter, mere raw material for exploitation.
      Being uprooted is considered the road to progress. Forced from our homes through this phase change last time[enclosure]; and these times. Separation of humans from each other[divisions w/in society engineered last time] and these times[constructed inequality].
      Separation from our sense of self.

      There are systems at war here. The analogue vs the digital. The living vs the machine. The spiritual being vs the inhuman. Spy vs spy.
      So action at a distance in the quantum world is mimic the real world politic; many sides, many systems – all vying for control.
      But the ultimate game afoot,
      is control of space.

  8. Note: If you see dumpsters near your schools during “renovations” over the holidays or in future. They also may be throwing out a lot of or all of the older books or books that are perfectly good – particularly on the History of the U.S., The Revolution, George Washington, Philadelphia, etc.

  9. What bothers me about different nations’ announced defense plans is the timelines they’re giving. In my view, they are too far out – by years. From what I am reading and sensing, the geopolitical tension is going to snap in the near term (between now and the next five years on the outside). There is not time for Japan to build a sufficient independent military; they need to side with an existing strong military. If not the US and not China, then who? Russia?

    I’m getting the sense that this coming conflict will look more like the ‘Western’ bloc vs. the East Asia bloc with China flapping in the wind or, partnered with the West (and I don’t think the ‘West’ will include all the same European countries who are presently NATO members).

    All this while other types of conflicts on micro and macro scales simultaneously play out. Interesting times indeed.

    1. PiPoe
      I like your take, in the sense that perhaps China is not wanting to be part of a NWO, unless she is in charge of it.

      Which begs the question,
      Who is in charge of the NWO?

      So China sides w/those against it.
      But the U.S.[Trump faction] has not yet
      broken clean of the NWO’s grip.

      Russia is definitely anti-fascist.
      And that player[Nazi International]
      is out there, and a force,
      not one to underestimate
      by any measure.

      Much still in play.
      Fragile.

      Then there’s that unknown player
      of action @ a distance[Space]?

  10. If the U. S. government cannot fulfill its commitments and obligations to the peoples of the United States without the use of divide and conquer for absolute control, why should governments around the world consider the U. S. agreement capable? They see what we see, a government whose purpose is to provide industrial scaled, unbounded support for trans-global corporate and cartel interests. The U. S. government is run by privateers, for privateers, to benefit privateers at the expense of a global population. I am no Marxist, but I see a con. People forget Marxism was funded by these same interests as controlled opposition, whose purpose was to reveal parts of the game’s rules to condition the global mind for harvest into a hive. Until I see evidence to the contrary, my position remains intact.

    Wait, I need to check my drains. There’s that sewer smell again.

    1. Bureaucrats dislike decisive actions, that are heroic, because they would never sacrifice their life for others, but rather beg for mercy, in fear of death.

      Feminists attack the heroes from behind, because the hero is able to call out their feminist treason, that is dealt with swiftly on the battlefield.

      Abraham, as leader of armed men, would never engage in theology, only strategy, since he would not survive, while debating lifeboats on a sinking ship.

      Baalim and Ashtoreth were never Abraham’s cup of tea. Donald Trump is warrior like Abraham.

    2. What people forget or never get their eyes high enough on the horizon to see is the cycles played on us sheep by the eugenicist farmers (spmotu). Every 80 or so years each society is turned into socialism marxism whateverism to liquidate and raid all assets including human.

      Consider Jesuit reductions in Paraguay and Uruguay. After a generation or 3 (stalinism) the society reduced is allowed to flourish. Until the next harvest.

      Now how n where do sheep smart enough to wear wolf’s clothing best survive?

  11. Secularization of Abraham will finish off the pope empire, that becomes a footnote in history.

    America will then stop being a papal slave camp, since the founding fathers become exposed as Jesuits.

    American presidency will then collapse, as a Jesuit superstructure by Washington and Weishaupt.

    Donald Trump will then be able to run his own geopolitical company called America.

    SIEGFRIED AND FLORADORA 1

    Pope did not want Siegfried to marry,
    and sent Jesuit spies in a hurry,
    budding romance to quell
    with Siegfried in hell,
    so dragon would cause no worry.

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/ccsirsai003ocg3/featherless-chicken.jpg

  12. Or viewed in a different directional way – the current impotence of the USA due to a Biden Administration forces the hand of the pacific rim to go to war with China so the USA doesn’t have to.

  13. I believe that the “geopolitical fallout” started multi-decades back, with the high-level decision to hollow-out US manufacturing capabilities. Surely, those bigwigs knew what the end-result would be – a rust-belt and a poor, restive populace. Plus, the US would be a ‘financial power’ while other nations would become ‘manufacturing powers’. (Guess which one is based on Reality and which one is based on Illusion…)

    Decades later, the chickens have come home to roost. Despite MAGA, the situation has probably become unrecoverable. Whole supply lines have moved offshore, while irreplaceable talent has aged-out of our workforce. Again, those bigwigs knew what the end-result would be. They wanted it to happen.

    Now, other nations are looking at this hollowed-out husk and noting how dangerous end-of-empire nations can become. When all else fails, those ‘governments’ proceed with rallying/distracting their populations with some version of War. And, False Flags are a time-honored ploy…

    In effect, I would see what Joseph calls the “Quadruple Entente” as an informal alliance to gently contain the convulsive lashing-out of the US, as things get bad internally. I am afraid that the US is about to become the Russia of the 1990s. Other nations suspect this, also.

    And one more time: The Cabal/TPTB/SPMotU/Phoenician Navy knew what the end-result would be. They wanted it to happen…

    1. Dmitry Orlov has outlined and detailed that thought for decades. Added note, just as all tools are weapons and vice versa, all weapons work in all directions. From our limited perspective, this quad is a container all right. Who is the party that they contain though? Seems historically they have more reason and logic to gather round China and contain the US out than the other way around. Isn’t this how USSR transition to Russia went?

      Later on the focus goes to what parts go to which predator? So far it sure looks like Cali, Oregon , Wash n Vietcouver go to CCP. NY too probably. Texas, Tenn n Florida are curious. Heartland states too. So far seems Ccp is most fixed on ports. That appearance might be an artifact of seeing the best way to eat an elephant, like the US. One bite at a time.

      1. In my opinion, the next decade or so will be much like the ancient Egyptian “Intermediate Periods.” During those times of social turbulence and societal breakdown, much was lost (and people died). If you look at pyramid quality, they went from entirely-stone to mud-core to not building large-scale pyramids at all. After some chaos, they did reassemble their society and re-create their nation.

        That is why I referenced the time when/after the USSR dissolved: The Russian people took bad for 10-20 years, although the country did not fall. And then, their ‘shrunken’ nation gradually re-built on new foundations.
        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC259165/

        In my opinion, the US is well-down that path…

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