LUONGO: KAZAKSTAHN, AND THE DEATH OF MAKINDER
As I mentioned at the beginning of this new drama in my life, I will attempt to blog when I can and as my energy levels permit. One thing I've quickly learned about heart attacks, is that they leave you feeling a bit like a rag that has been run through one of those old fashioned washing machines with the little rollers to squeeze out excess water. And that's just what the heart attack does. Then there's what the hospital does; frankly at one point I looked so much like a pin cushion and had been so poked prodded bled stabbed jabbed that I was just waiting for a nurse to arrive all cheery-voiced at 3AM and announce "Hi I'm Tammy and I'm here to begin your leech therapy..." After all, they had done pretty much everything else; why not leeches? I was reminded of that moment in the first act of PDQ Bach's opera The Abduction of Figaro when the doctor attendant upon the ailing Figaro sings "Bring me my bag, it's right by his breeches; this is the time to send in the leeches." I was expecting leeches at any moment.
Not to belabor the moment, I was released, only as many of you know to contact covid (I think), and up until just about a day and a half ago, that was yet another nightmare, but I can say that at least that appears to have broken, and the congestion finally appears to be going down. The drawback is I have no voice, which I hope is simply a matter of stress over the last coupe of weeks.
The bottom line folks is that I'm just at the beginning of trying to work out what all this means. My hospital rehab hasn't even started yet, so I don't know what all this will yet mean for vidchats, News and views, and so on.
Stories and articles continue to come in however, and it's getting difficult to ignore them all. In fact, today's article was submitted by L.G.L.R. and as it's by one of my favorite geopolitical analysists (Tom Luongo) about a subject needing a bit of discussion - including my own high octane additions - I thought I should scrape together my few puddles of energy reserves and have at it. What concerns is is not the Ukraine, nor Russia, nor Byelorussia/Belarus, but Kazakstan, and a massive triumph Mr. Putin has just scored:
Luongo's take is worth citing in full before we extrapolate any "sessons":
Less than one week before a major summit between the United states NATO and Russia over the security architecture of Eastern Europe, we’re treated to another failed color revolution in the most strategically important place along Russia’s southern border.
There was looting, horrific violence and former government buildings, the ultimate symbols of power, set on fire.
What may have been surprising was how quickly Russia and Kazakh’s President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev invoked the CSTO to come in and stop the nonsense. But, if it didn’t happen this way the consequences for Russia and the rest of Asia would have been catastrophic.
Kazakhstan is simply too big and too important for Russia to even consider allowing to fall back into the hands of someone like Nursultan Nasarbaev, a true post-Soviet meglomaniac, Russophobe and self-interested jackass whose double dealings with the West are just shy of those by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
This article by Fyodor Lukyanov, brings up a lot of good points about what this intervention means for the future and I highly recommend it. But what’s most important now is that this was a stiff message to Washington, London and Brussels.
Get out of Central Asia and stay out. Russia is now in control of the Heartland. (Boldface and italics emphases added)
So let's add all this up and see what pops out: (1) we've seen another failed color revolution, which failed because (2) Russian and Kazakstanian presidents Putin and Tokayev reacted quickly preventing Kazakhstan from falling into the orbit of pro-western forces, and in doig so (4) a message was crafted and sent to London, Brussels, and Washington: that message being "Get out of Central Asia and Stay out. Russia is in control of the heartland.
To drive the point home, Loungo reminds us that in dealing with the Ukraine, Russia, or Russia's many satellite nations in the region, it's best to remember a few things, like this:
This morning Reuters is reporting that the head of Kazakhstan’s intelligence services, Karim Massimov, has been arrested and charged with treason.
Who is Massimov and why is he important to the bigger picture? This one from the NY Post is worth a lot more than a thousand words:
So, just in case anyone was confused about the idea that there could be some outside motivations for taking Kazakhstan away from Russia, I thought it good to get some things out in the open.
With the recent "tough talk" from the Brandonenko regime about resorting to cyber-warfare and other "hard tactics" in response to Russia, the meaning of Russia's response in Kazakstan is clear, and Loungo has nailed it: no more "business as usual" for the west, by the west, in the East, particularly the east of the former Soviet Union; no more running of those former Soviet Republics as a personal family fief and fisc. It's that observation that brings me to a high-octane speculation , a kind of addendum to Mr. Luongo's observations, something, I suspect, that we can watch out for in the next few years.
In targeting NGOs and color revolutions, Mr. Putin has put teeth behind his and the Russian Federation's outlawing of such organizations and their sponsors - think George Soros - and one result of these actions will be increasing international pressure to outlaw such organizations by name and individual. Such agreements, I strongly suspect, will come part of the standard fare of "bilateral agreements" we see emerging in the region between, say, Japan and India, or Russia and India, and so on.
So I suspect, yes, this is a story to watch, with some very long term implications that we are only just beginning to see...
See you on the flip side...
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