RUSSIA AND THE UKRAINE RE DUGINA BOMBING
Once again, this article was spotted by many of you and passed along, and I have to talk about it if only because it seems to confirm one of my long-time warnings. More recently, that "long-time" warning has become a growing fear. The long-term warning and now growing fear is that "two and more can play the covert operations game," and that appears now to be the underlying agreed-upon assessment of the recent sad car-bombing of Darya Dugina, daughter of the controversial Russian philosopher of geopolitics and culture, Eurasianist Alexander Dugin:
The powder-keg nature of the operation is adequately spelled out by the article:
The fissure between those empires was cemented by the Bosnian Crisis of 1908 which saw Austria-Hungary annex Bosnia and Herzegovina by using Bulgaria's declaration of independence from the Ottoman Empire as an advantageous political catalyst given its destabilization of the Balkan region. Austria-Hungary's actions would provoke Russia to rise to the defense of its Slavic brethren situated in Serbia and Montenegro in a response that would forever alter how Russia would align itself among the continental powers of Europe. While a widespread conflict was averted by the amending the Treaty of Berlin, the political climate the Bosnian Crisis cast would light the fuse for the inevitable outbreak of WWI which was detonated with the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand by Bosnian-Serb nationalist Gavrilo Princip.
As the war in Ukraine places Russia at familiar odds with the powers of Europe yet again, the precarious position of ostensibly unsustainable peace across the continent echoes on longer than a century following the First World War. The tension illustrates the axiom that nothing is new under the sun as the volatility of Europe in 2022 mirrors that in 1908. Russia's position against the European hegemony vested in NATO is analogous to its stance in support of the Slavic realm longer than a century ago. Now, following the assassination of Darya Dugina, this century may have found its own Franz Ferdinand.
The Russian Federal Security Service ("FSB") has claimed that the assassination of Dugina was committed by a covert operative of Ukraine. The FSB has identified Natalia Vovk as the alleged assassin. "As a result of a complex of urgent operational-search measures, the Federal Security Service has solved the murder of Russian journalist Darya Dugina, born in 1992," the FSB announced, going on to emphasize the culpibility of the Ukrainian government by stating that "the crime was prepared and committed by the Ukrainian special services[.]" (Emphasis added)
We would only add that, yes, as far as it goes, this is a standard "history textbook" presentation of what happened between Serbia and Austria-Hungary in 1914... except that we would add, for those really interested in doing a much deeper dive into the 1914 rabbit hole, to dig much deeper, and consult the Austro-Hungarian Empire's trial transcripts of the Serbian members of the "Black Hand" secret society that were involved in the assassination of archduke Franz Ferdinand. Gavrilo Prinzip was only one such member.
But in any case, we have the Russian police's case for Ukrainian involvement in the murder, and from a prima facie point of view, it seems fairly conclusive.
In this case, the question of Who is the crucial question, and in this case, Kiev is denying any responsibility:
Following Dugina's assassination, Ukraine (sic, et passim: proper English is "The Ukraine") was naturally implicated as being behind the murder given her father's significant, albeit enigmatic, reputation as one of Vladimir Putin's most influential ideologues. Kiev urgently washed its hands of any involvement as advisor Mykhailo Podolyak stated “Ukraine, of course, has nothing to do with yesterday’s explosion[.]” Although Ukrainian officials denied any involvement in the attack, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of his anticipation that Dugina's murder would inextricably result in the intensification Russia's military campaign.
Of course, if the Ukraine was really involved, then one would expect Kiev to deny that involvement.
But consider, what really would be accomplished by Kiev sponsoring such an action? In a word, almost nothing, because the only thing virtually guaranteed by such an action is more Russian pressure, and not just military pressure. If the Ukraine is willing to resort to a covert operation against a significant Russian intellectual, that only opens the door for Russia to do the same to Ukrainian leadership figures. In short, by resorting to assassination, that only opens the door to similar retaliation. Things are going badly enough for the Ukraine already, why intensify it by such a nutty action?
Granted, I have no answer to this question other than sheer desperation on the Ukraine's part. But if it is not sheer desperation, then it is a calculated action, and if calculated, I think it highly unlikely that the connections stop with the Ukraine. The bomb was clearly made by someone who knew what they were doing, and while the Russian police have not yet indicated what type of bomb it was - did it explode when the ignition was turned? did it explode when Ms. Dugina simply sat in the car seat as from a pressure switch? Or was the bomb actually armed and detonated remotely? - it was nonetheless and in any of those cases made by someone with experience.
And that makes it somehow connected to the intelligence "community," a "community" with its own deeper connections. And if, or rather, when the Russian police and intelligence services find those deeper connections, do not be surprised if the gloves come off, and leaders in other countries start experiencing accidents or sudden onset polonium-from-umbrella-poisoning.
What might some of those deeper connections be? Who might want to sow such chaos? Well, I can already think of one group, but perhaps it's time to revisit that the article suggests, and do that deeper dive into the Serbian Black hand organization, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, and the Austro-Hungarian trial transcripts...
...just a thought...
See you on the flip side...
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