THAT RUSSIAN COUP THING…
If you're like me, and judging from the amount of articles and inquiries stuffing my email inbox, you are, then you're wondering just what the heck is going on in Russia? It's bad enough that the lamestream propatainment media lie incessantly to us about the marvellous and wondrous progress the good, saintly, and heroic Ukrainian military is making against the evil, backward, contemptible and inept Russian military. To listen to some of it, you'd think Zelensky's
Tiger tank Leopard tank panzers have driven clean through Volgagrad and are on their way to the Urals, and that Moscow will fall to Army Group Center the Ukrainian military and Field Marshall von Bock General Valery Zaluzhniy any minute now. Confident pronouncement after confident pronouncement is coming from the Oberkommando der Wehrmacht President Zelensky and victory after victory is being recorded on the big screen by Deutsche Wochenschau SeeBS, Faux news, the BBC, CNN, and other outlets.
Add to this mix the reports that part of the Russian military operation represented by
Admiral Kolchak and the White armies Prigozhin and the Wagner Group and the situation is downright confusing. We've not seen such hotheadedness from a Russian leader since Nikita Khrushchev removed his shoes at the United Nations General assembly in order to pound the table with them, much to the malodorous chagrin of everyone else present. The situation is - well - just downright confusing, and while I'd like to offer up my usual dollop of confusion-clarifying high octane speculation, this time I can't, except that I do have a possibility. Consider the following article from a Georgian in Tibilisi, who is just as confused as I am, shared by D.J.:
Now you'll notice something very weird about what allegedly set all this coup d'etat talk off:
Businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin accused the Russian military of “missile strikes on the rear camps” of the Wagner PMC, as a result of which “a huge number of fighters” of the military company died. […]
Prigozhin, citing a decision made by the Council of Commanders PMC Wagner, stated the following in a video appeal:
“The evil that the military leadership of the country bears must be stopped! They neglect the lives of soldiers, they forgot the word ‘justice’ … Those who destroyed our guys and the lives of many tens of thousands of Russian soldiers will be punished. I ask you not to resist [Wagner].
And of course, the reaction from the various agencies of the Russian state itself were entirely predictable:
All of Prigozhin’s claims are “entirely unfounded,” the body said in a statement, adding that the Federal Security Service (FSB) has “opened a criminal investigation on account of calling for an armed rebellion.”
“We demand the immediate end to all illegal activity,” the anti-terrorism committee stated.
Earlier, the Russian Defense Ministry accused Prigozhin of spreading falsehoods over a video circulating on social media that claimed the Russian military had attacked a base of Wagner fighters.
“A large number of our fighters died. We will decide how we will respond to this atrocity. The next step is ours,” Prigozhin said in a statement commenting on the alleged attack. He then vowed to march on Moscow and hold those responsible to account, warning the military to stay out of his way.
And that, more or less, is where we stand as of the moment of this blog-writing, though of course by the time this blog appears publicly the situation might advance even more. But it does not matter, because what I want to concentrate on is the initial set of claims and counter-claims that set this whole weirdness in motion: (1) the claim by the Wagner group's leader that one of his bases was struck by Russian munitions resulting in the loss of several of his soldiers, and (2) the denials by the organs of the Russian state, including its Ministry of Defense and the Federalnaya Sluzhba Bezopaznosti, the F.S.B.
These two claims took me back to the autumn of 1940, and to a crucial period during the Battle of Britain, and to a war-losing decision that Adolf Hitler took. Up to that point, the German Luftwaffe was pursuing a very careful strategy, one that was working and one which, if continued, would doom the Royal Air Force to ineffectiveness. The strategy, and the very clever British response, are even alluded to in the old 1960s movie about the battle, The Battle of Britain, which starred just about every actor back then that you can think of. Basically the Luftwaffe was pursuing the strategy of denial of infrastructure: it didn't matter how many planes the British shot down, because the Luftwaffe would bomb their airfields. The British fighters could take off, but would return to a cratered and bombed runway, and have to land further and further away from the theater of operations each time. The Royal Air Force was being pushed back, gradually, from the very theater where it was most needed. Virtually every senior Luftwaffe commander, from Reichsmarschal Goering himself, to Colonel-Generals Kesselring and so on, agreed that it was the only strategy that would enable what the Germans needed: air superiority in southern England for an airborne and amphibious invasion.
It was working, and there was absolutely nothing the bravery or skill of the British pilots could do about it.
Then someone in the lofty reaches of British bomber command hit upon an idea, and the idea had but a purely psychological goal, and but one target: Adolf Hitler. The idea was to enrage Hitler, and get him to change the entire strategy and targeting priority for the Luftwaffe. So a few British bombers raided Berlin at night, dropped a few bombs, did a little damage... and infuriated Hitler, who, in retaliation, gave one of his most memorable speeches the following night to a packed crowd in the Sportpalast, angrily shouting that if the British air force were to drop bombs of a hundred, or five hundred, or a thousand kilograms on a German city, then the Luftwaffe was going to drop ten times that amount of ordnance on British cities. (The speech, incidentally, is "reproduced" in the movie, though the subtitles are a bit inaccurate.) The bombing raid had its intended psychological effect, for Hitler ordered the bombing of British cities, allowing the RAF to repair its airfields, and return them to the use of their fighters.
The result? The British retook air superiority over southern England, and never lost it again.
Something similar appears to be to be happening here. The Russian military has no good reason to carry out attacks on the Wagner group, nor, I suspect, does the Wagner group have any real proof - other than, perhaps, the Russian munitions themselves - that it did so. It is, however, precisely the sort of thing one would to to an enemy that was otherwise successful on the battlefield: divide the enemy and, if possible, get him to fight himself. In this case, Prigozhin is playing hot-headed Hitler to Putin's more strategy-minded Goering. And we've already seen three instances in recent months where an on-the-ground human intelligence capability inside of Russia had to be active: (1) the bombing-assassination of Alexandra Dugina, (2) the attempted drone attacks on the Kremlin, and (3) the drone attacks on the residential area in western Moscow. I am suggesting the possibility of a similar operation here: attacks on the Wagner group probably did occur, and probably did take place using Russian weapons, but it probably was not Russians carrying them out, but special operations teams. The goal? Infuriate Prigozhin, and foster internal dissention within the Russian state and military.
If this speculation be anywhere close to the truth, then as I've been warning for quite some time, it is a game that two can play (indeed, as is noted at the beginning of that little Hitler speech from the movie). If the Wagner attempted coup suggests anything, it is the fragility of the modern state. The west will probably continue to play such games, and there is once again talk of potential nuclear false flags in western circles. Clearly, all options are on the table for both sides. And if those options include nuclear, then they also include car bombs, assassinations, drones, and infrastructure sabotage. The Wagner "coup", I strongly suspect, is just another manifestation that the war is now covert, as well as overt.
See you on the ...
... FLASH!!! WE INTERRUPT THIS BLOG TO REPORT THE FOLLOWING:
I just received the following article from an individual who wishes to remain completely anonymous. I have NOT had time to verify or check it, so take it with a grain of salt, but I AM going to publish this blog today (Saturday, June 24) rather than my normal practice of scheduling it to appear on Monday.
In any case, the article is reporting that apparently Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin's aircraft has disappeared shortly after taking off from Moscow bound for St. Petersburg. It should be carefully noted that this is from a Ukrainian site, and is therefore to be treated with due caution.
My speculation remains the same: the West is behind this, and it's desperation move to split Russia, topple the Putin government, and save their bacon in the Ukraine...
See you on the flip side...
Help the Community Grow
Please understand a donation is a gift and does not confer membership or license to audiobooks. To become a paid member, visit member registration.