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MOLOTOV-RIBBENTROP 2.0: GERMANY AND RUSSIA WORKING ON GAS-FOR-LAND ...

There is an article over at iZero Hedge that left me rather breathless when Ii read it, and apparently it did many of you as well, because many of you sent it to me as well. It appears there are rumors afoot that Germany and Russia are trying to negotiate an end to the Ukrainian mess bi-laterally, and the deal includes recognition of the Crimea now being part of Russia, in return for assurances on energy, and stabilization of the Ukraine's borders:

Russia And Germany Allegedly Working On Secret "Gas For Land" Deal

The original UK Independent article ehich the Zero Hedge article references is here:

Land for gas: Merkel and Putin discussed secret deal could end Ukraine crisis

As the Zero Hedge article suggests, the UK and USA are not likely to accept a deal in which the Crimea remains in Russian hands. After all, as I suggested some months back, one of the related geopolitical objectives of the Anglo-American elite (or Anglosphere as our friends at The Daily Bell call it) was the elimination of the threat of Russia's Black Sea Fleet and thereby an effective end to Russian "meddling" in Syria.

But Frau Bundeskanslerin has other ideas, and they're fraught with geopolitical implications. Consider Zero Hedge's take on things:

"But while Germany can't wait to put the Ukraine conflict behind it and restore normal Russian relations (see Adidas' record plunge earlier today, blamed on the Ukraine conflict) others are far more eager to stir the pot some more: "A spokesman for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office said they had no knowledge of such negotiations taking place. However, the spokesman said he thought it highly unlikely that either the US or UK would agree to recognising Russian control over Crimea. There was no one available at the German embassy’s press office yesterday."

"Which, of course, goes back to the fundamental question behind the Eurozone experiment: just who calls the shots. And despite what the UK (and certainly France) believe, that one person was and continues to be Merkel.  And at the end of the day, pragmatic Germany knows that for all the posturing and rhetoric, the biggest loser from a western embargo of Russia (which is now actively shifting its attention to China and now India) would be Germany itself.

'[S]trong trade ties between the two countries have also served to strengthen Ms Merkel’s hand and the Russian speaker has emerged as the leading advocate of closer relations between the EU and Russia. “This is Merkel’s deal. She has been dealing direct with President Putin on this. She needs to solve the dispute because it’s in no one’s interest to have tension in the Ukraine or to have Russia out in the cold. No one wants another Cold War,” said one insider close to the negotiations.

'Some of Germany’s biggest companies have big operations in Russia, which is now one of Europe’s biggest car markets, while many of its small to medium companies are also expanding into the country. Although Russia now provides EU countries with a third of their gas supplies through pipelines crossing the Ukraine, Germany has its own bilateral gas pipeline direct to Russia making it less vulnerable than other European countries.

'However, Russia is still the EU’s third-biggest trading partner with cross-border trade of $460bn (£272bn) last year, and the latest sanctions being introduced by the EU towards Russian individuals and banks will hurt European countries more than any other – particularly Germany, but also the City of London.

"Curiously, if there is one entity that could scuttle the deal it is, no surprise there, the US."

The article and Zero Hedge spell it out fairly well, and indeed, Germany, like it or not, is in the driver's seat in the EU, as the following statistics will show:

Ranking of countries by nominal GDP

Consider that Germany, with a population of a little over 80,000,000, ranks fourth behind the USA, China, and Japan with much larger populations, and one gets the idea. Russia, conversely, ranks around Italy, and has almost twice the population of Germany.

So, if Berlin and Moscow are entertaining a secret round of negotiations, and some of the terms include pledges that the Ukraine will not join NATO, and that the Anglosphere is unlikely to go for any deal that allows the Crimea to remain in Russia, then what are Berlin and Moscow up to? (...if, indeed, they're up to anything at all...and in my opinion, given the trade and energy at stake for Russia and Germany, it would be foolish to assume they're not). Why would they undertake such negotiations when both countries know full well that there is likely to be an American "veto" of any such scheme, and knowing full well that the pledge not to join NATO would be an empty promise anyway, since the USA(and most likely the UK), would simply conclude various independent arrangements with the Ukraine anyway, likely to include special military promises and basing?

I suspect - and here is my high octane speculation of the day - that this is a bit of theater on their part, designed by Berlin and Moscow, ultimately, to reveal the USA for its unipolarism and increasingly questionable actions; it's designed to create yet another series of incidents where the USA has to reveal its hand, and show that it is not genuinely interested in stabilization of the region, but rather, in putting the screws to Russia. And again, it is Germany, not Russia, that is really sending the mixed signals: they've expelled a senior CIA officer, and are quietly implementing steps to increase their internal security, but at the same time, Merkel has caved into Washington pressure to impose sanctions on Russia. But it's the long run that counts in this game... and Germany is watching the moves by the BRICSA nations .... and Washington... very carefully. The stakes are high, for if Washington vetos the Merkel-Putin scheme, it could rebound against the Chancellor, making her government look diplomatically weak. But the move, and the implications, are there, and the fact that Germany would undertake such negotiations at all suggests that there is a considerable segment in its foreign service that are discretely and quietly fed up with Washington.

See you on the flip side...

7 thoughts on “ MOLOTOV-RIBBENTROP 2.0: GERMANY AND RUSSIA WORKING ON GAS-FOR-LAND ...”

  1. I left Poland 33 years ago, and now back for couple of years to take care of my Mother.
    I know its a personal history but it is important to know that before I state my opinion.
    So here it is:
    There is something strange going on with Germany overall…I mean every European nation has its share of problems but Germany is popping up like a cork out of cold water all nice and pretty saving others, supporting EU pathetic economy, keeping everyone head above water…
    I say strange because I know the “young ” German generation, and most certainly they are not hard working persons their parents were (WW2 generation).
    I should know, my Fathers family is German and have cousins by dosens lazy bums beating one over the other with benefits from the ‘Stadt’ without any desire for work for years!!!
    Back in 2012 President Putin placed some kind of ‘hold-up’ for European veggies imported by Russia due to some kind of bio-scare sourced in Spain…all the tests done were not good enough for Putin until September or beginning of October when the season was over making loses for European farmers into billions while Russians couldn’t tell the difference in grocery stores.
    That brings me to your article.
    I can not put my finger on it but I have a gut feeling Russia and ermany know something we don’t!
    With 3000 German businesses invested and supported by ties to Russia I have hard time to see this umbilical cord disconnected upon Washington fairy tale wishes.
    I also see-read-hear-feel major shift in general opinion in Europe being fed up with Americans pushing their way around like a despised uncle showing up at Thanksgiving dinner …
    Quick look at US economy status may explain the “cut-me-out-this-family picture…

  2. Well what do you get when you put two of the craftiest leaders on the planet together, well one could say “self interest” here. So, in other words, they both know the US/UK alliance is pushing hard for hard times on Russia, so there has to be a way to “even things out”, without upsetting the Americans. Time will tell, but let there be no doubt, the wheels are turning and Germany HAS TO come up with a game saving plan where Merkel gets the ataboy badge for the month.
    The fly in the ointment in this little debacle is the quiet player on the block, China, and they have been very quiet while all this sanctions sheet has been going on, wonder what China will do if this US foreign policy continues?

  3. Lets face it where is Europe going to get it’s energy from answer Russia. Closer cheaper easier and safer to a extent than by boat from USA. By the way was Philip The Fair the king you were referring to under the French version of his name in a earlier post. The one who tried to doge his Templar creditors by bring heresy charges against them just want to be sure.

  4. Could this not also be interpreted from the perspective of “someone” outing what Germany and Russia had intended to remain undisclosed, perhaps NSA-like?

    The reason I suggest this is the Adidas’ stock record plunge. Based on the alleged ability to manipulate markets and stocks, this could be construed as a message to Germany that “We know what you’re up to, and you risk suffering catastrophic economic consequences, as a result.”

    Or, Dr. F could be right, and the Adidas’ stock is a responsive warning. There appear to be myriad possibilities. In the balance, however, I am inclined to heed Dr. F’s interpretation.

  5. Well if we are talking “land deals,” I think it is this. Based by the way on an article I read about passing comments between Putin and Austria and the South Stream pipe line.

    “Land deals”will be Russia retains Crimea AND Eastern Ukraine which is originally Kiev Russ including Kiev. The rest? They go back to Austrian, Hungary and Poland respectively, as they were before the fake Ukrainian language was created, the fake Ukrainian nationality was created and the fake everything in the last 100 years.

    That is the “land deal.” They have just got to keep toy boy and his pop guns across the pond from barging in like it is the wild west. After all he has done this twice before already, from his throne at the Fed. Making money out of other people’s suffering. Two horrific wars were enough, Europe will not put up with a third from a bunch of red neck satanists in the very wild, wild west.

  6. It’s not a surprise that Germany would want to settle with Russia.

    Only the really delusional in Washington DC (John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Fox News,) think Crimea will be rejoining Ukraine.

    And even if the Poles don’t trust Washington, they trust Germany and Russia even less, so want a Washington (NATO) presence in Ukraine.

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