THE COMING COLLAPSE OF SAUDI ARABIA?October 6, 2015
Yesterday I blogged about the discovery of a method of detection of the zero point energy, or quantum vacuum flux. You'll recall that while there were elements within the scientific community rightly skeptical about the results of an experiment done at Germany's University of Konstanz, nonetheless there are reasons for some reserved enthusiasm. After all, if a means of detection of this energy can be confected, then this is, as I argued yesterday, a tiny but significant step in the technology tree to its utilization. And that, as I also suggested, would be the geopolitical, financial, and cultural game-changer. As I also suggested yesterday, imagine if some significant steps in this direction had already been taken in the black projects research world. Only the timing of such releases of technology would have to be carefully coordinated and then only when some sort of global monitoring or surveillance system were in place to prevent the development of such technologies in "unfavorable", i.e., weaponized directions.
The geopolitical earthquake that such developments would cause for repressive and fragile regimes like Iran or Saudi Arabia would be a death knell. But not to worry. The latter seems headed for a collapse under its own Wahhabist steam, according to this article shared by Mr. V.T.:
THe analysis here is conventional: Saudi Arabia's problem is that it is an extraordarily fragile economy, based upon one thing: oil. It has nothing else to offer the world, culturally, economically, or in any other way. This fragility, as I suggested a few weeks ago, has perhaps put it on the "menu", and accounts for its increasing recklessness in the region. But there's something else going on here, and that occurs at the beginning of the article:
On Tuesday 22 September, Middle East Eye broke the story of a senior member of the Saudi royal family calling for a “change” in leadership to fend off the kingdom’s collapse.
In a letter circulated among Saudi princes, its author, a grandson of the late King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud, blamed incumbent King Salman for creating unprecedented problems that endangered the monarchy’s continued survival.
“We will not be able to stop the draining of money, the political adolescence, and the military risks unless we change the methods of decision making, even if that implied changing the king himself,” warned the letter.
Whether or not an internal royal coup is round the corner – and informed observers think such a prospect “fanciful” – the letter’s analysis of Saudi Arabia’s dire predicament is startlingly accurate.
Like many countries in the region before it, Saudi Arabia is on the brink of a perfect storm of interconnected challenges that, if history is anything to judge by, will be the monarchy’s undoing well within the next decade.
In other words, as I suggested recently, the fissures in the Saudi system are now becoming open cracks. The key phrase here is "political adolescence." In the brutal context of Wahhabism, what could this possibly mean? Or to put it differently, Saudi Arabia's problem isn't simply oil, it's its whole system, and everyone knows it, perhaps - just perhaps - even members of its own royal household. But the article's author, Dr. Nafeez Ahmed points out that this is a problem beyond merely the changing of factions:
Like many of its neighbours, such deep-rooted structural realities mean that Saudi Arabia is indeed on the brink of protracted state failure, a process likely to take-off in the next few years, becoming truly obvious well within a decade.
Sadly, those few members of the royal family who think they can save their kingdom from its inevitable demise by a bit of experimental regime-rotation are no less deluded than those they seek to remove.(emphasis added)
The structural realities, I am bold to suggest, are not merely economic, they are cultural and religious, and they symbolize the problem with the entire region and with the current policy of America's engagement with it. The train wreck of this engagement and backing of the most radical elements vs. the authoritarian secular leaders of the region have now resulted in a collapsing US position vis-a-vis its traditional European allies, and a determination on the part of Russia to make the war on Islamic terrorism real, and to end it. Well, at least, that's the story. But we need to remember Russia's tight relationship with Iran, and in turn, Iran's tight relationship with Hezzbollah and other such organizations. The point here, however, is that a Saudi collapse is going to have to be carefully managed. As Dr. Ahmed points out, the collapse is inevitable. But Saudi Arabia has, as most know, been a US ally for quite some time, notwithstanding its probable role in some aspects of the 9/11 massacres that launched this whole mess. it's that "managed collapse" that disturbs, for if this is handled in the usual unipolarist way, it will fail, and leave the USA in no better position vis-a-vis control of Saudi oil, than now. If, conversely, it becomes an "international project", the results could be equally catastrophic. If left alone and to themselves, an even more extreme regime might be the result, exporting that nation's other major export. A human tragedy is thus in the making, for no one is asking, or even considering, if the average Saudi wants to continue to live under a mediaeval barbarism, or worse, and in a regime were voices of moderation and reform are capital offense heresies, the picture looks bleak.
So as I suggested a few weeks ago, the recent moves from Riyadh toward Moscow are a manifestation of the same problems alluded to in the article. But my guess is, that while Mr. Putin may have been formally correct and cordial, that privately, he, Frau Merkel, M. Hollande, and perhaps even Mr. Obama and Mr. Netanyahu, and Mr. Xi, (and a few others), are quietly talking about how to serve the dish, without avoiding a food fight amongst themselves.
See you on the flip side...