GERMAN VICE CHANCELLOR SIGMAR GABRIEL: EU BREAKUP NO LONGER UNFEASIBLE

Ms. K.M. shared this interesting article from Paul Carrel which appeared on Reuters' news service, and it piqued my interest for one particular reason, the subject of todays "high octane speculation." See if you can spot what it was:

Germany's Gabriel says EU break-up no longer unthinkable

Did you spot it?

Before I answer that question and point out what caught my eye, let's recall that yesterday I blogged about the Czech President's statements about Muslim refugees, about the deeper cultural-political decisions facing Europeans, and about some high octane speculation about what that refugee crisis might have been created for. In that high octane speculation I advanced the idea that there will be an inevitable "change of course" from the Eurocrats.

But there's a financial and economic side to this "cultural politics" wrangle as well, and in this regard, it's important to note that Herr Gabriel is a member of Frau Merkel's coalition government, as as such, can be conceived as a "europhile" and fully in favor of the Europaprojekt (one that, I hasten to remind readers has peculiar resemblances to that 1942 Nazi-I.G. Farben-Reichsbank plan and some very peculiar connections to Nazi jurist Dr. Walter Hallstein). Indeed, the Reuters article attributes such thoughts and sentiments to Herr Gabriel:

Gabriel, whose Social Democrats (SPD) are junior partner to Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives in her ruling grand coalition, said strenuous efforts by countries like France and Italy to reduce their fiscal deficits came with political risks.

"I once asked the chancellor, what would be more costly for Germany: for France to be allowed to have half a percentage point more deficit, or for Marine Le Pen to become president?" he said, referring to the leader of the far-right National Front.

"Until today, she still owes me an answer," added Gabriel, whose SPD favors a greater focus on investment while Merkel's conservatives put more emphasis on fiscal discipline as a foundation for economic prosperity.

The problem for Frau Merkel is that the German Social Democratic Party will probably run Gabriel against her in this year's upcoming German federal elections:

The SPD is expected to choose Gabriel, their long-standing chairman who is also economy minister, to run against Merkel for chancellor in September's federal election, senior party sources said on Thursday.

Then Herr Gabriel said something at the end of the article, something which everyone already knew to be true, and something that, for readers of my book The Third Way, was obvious all along:

"But I also know about the state of the EU. It is no longer unthinkable that it breaks apart," he said in the interview, published on Saturday.

"Should that happen, our children and grandchildren would curse us," he added. "Because Germany is the biggest beneficiary of the European community - economically and politically."
(Emphasis added.)

Aw shucks, Herr Gabriel! Really? We had no idea who was really running things! Unless of course one takes the time to look at those wartime Nazi plans for a European federation, dominated by Germany, the pre-war "thinking" of Dr. Hallsten and the current structure of the EU, and notes the "coincidental" resemblances.

Nonetheless, it was not any of these statements that gave me pause and made me sit up and take notice. It was in fact the final paragraph of the first set of quotations I cited above. Here's that paragraph again:

"Until today, she still owes me an answer," added Gabriel, whose SPD favors a greater focus on investment while Merkel's conservatives put more emphasis on fiscal discipline as a foundation for economic prosperity.
(Emphasis added)

Now, you'll note something here: this is the same Herr Gabriel that in yesterday's "Tidbit" we noted wanted to ban extremist Islamic mosques in Germany. Now, today, he's talking about investment. Not austerity, not fiscal policy, but investment, and as such, I cannot help but think that Herr Gabriel has heard the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schaueble, loud and clear: the debt-growth model is over. Finance capital has run its course, and production - real production and equity - are the only way out of the mess.

What this signals is, I submit, a huge about-face, and even should Herr Gabriel lose any bid for a stint in the Bundeskanzlei, and should the Social Democrats re-emerge in any future coalition government with Frau Merkel (and if she should win, I think that possibility is very possible), then one may expect some "policy changes" in Berlin with Merkel's favored positions weakened considerably. (And if I were German, of course, I'd simply vote her out and buy her a cozy cottage in Malmo). Should Herr Gabriel win, then watch the rest of the EU change with him.

And Madam Le Pen? Well, interestingly enough, Herr Gabriel, while warning Merkel about the possibilities of a stint of Le Pen in the Elysees, appears with his mosque statements to be leaving a door open for some common grounds between Paris and Berlin, and notably, that open door is grounded in a cultural-political phenomenon, not a financial one. Even his economic message might find a more receptive ear with the French politician than he imagines.

This is going to be, as we already know, an interesting year.

See you on the flip side...