NEWS AND VIEWS FROM THE NEFARIUM JULY 5 2018
July 5, 2018 / /
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Merkel survives, but barely, and Italy (as predicted) steps up the pressure; but what's the future? Joseph has some predictions and they include Sweden and Poland:
Merkel, to Survive, Agrees to Border Camps for Migrants
Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini calls for anti-immigration alliance across Europe
Italy's Salvini Vows To Create Pan-European Association Of Nationalist Parties
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Getting hip to the violence engineered within the infrastructure.
one good side effect of higher fuel prices is increased mfg at home for customer countries. i have seen it a couple times in the last 10 years. factories in the midwest owned by large global companies with over 50 factories throughout the world have a few times bought factories back home to save on transport costs. with a factory under an hour away from their biggest customer, they save a ton, in spite of paying 2 and 3 times as much for labor here as in puerto rico. seems like the break point is above $2.50/gal gas. granted, the direction of job flow is much more often in the other direction. but without high gas prices, mfg jobs do not flow back into ussa.
The big elephant in the room (outside of the machinations of the Roths, etc.) is the price of oil. Back in the 70s when the Saudis doubled the price of oil literally overnight, it kicked off rampant stagflation. Studies were done at the time on how increasing the price of oil percolated-through various necessary items. It was astounding; all the way from gasoline used to mine raw materials on through smelting or refining and even gas/oil used in the transportation of goods. It often occurred that something you held in your hands had 80% of its creation directly-variable with oil’s price.
So, the elephant: OPEC + Russia decided early this year to restrict oil production to ‘bump’ oil prices by 30-50%, just because they could; monopoly at its best. The knock-on effects as above will effectively ‘tax’ all of Europe (the world) and remove a huge amount of discretionary income from the population. This often triggers a minor-to-major recession as people no longer buy ‘unnecessary’ things, forgo a vacation, etc. – which cascades-onward to factories/industries laying-off people, thus further reducing available income, and voilà a positive feedback loop starts running.
Now, the OPEC + Russia semi-monopoly is overshooting its greed-based oil prices. See above. Watch for a very ugly mood in the population as Europe works-out its problems…
sounds like one of our commenters last week was right comparing the eu to pre-civil war ussa.