THAT RUSSIAN “COUP” THING YET AGAIN…
Well, as you can tell, this week we've all been guessing what's going on with the so-called coup, so today (Friday) I have decided to round out the speculations by tossing in some observations that occurred to m as soon as I heard that a "deal" had been worked out between Prigozhin and the Kremlin, allowing Prigozhin to go to Byelorussia (or Belarus), to live out his days happily in bald-headed exile, while the rest of the Wagner group is absorbed by the Russian Ministry of Defense. The moment I heard that, the antennae started pulsing with suspicion, and my suspicion meter itself shot into the purple zone, which is beyond the red zone by several factors. "From Byelorussia," I thought, "the leader of the Wagner group is within easy striking distance of Kiev."
Or to put it differently, this whole exercise was contrived from the outset to allow a pivot for a knockout blow. We've seen the Russians do this before in this war. Consider the following article shared by K.M.:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/special-report-emergency-situation
While a long article, the following paragraph captured my imagination:
One last thing to mention. There is still the possibility this is all some kind of elaborate psyop. Anything is possible because the situation is simply so ‘out of left field’. The reason it’s out of left field to me in particular is Prigozhin really did not appear to have any substantive justification for any of this. As I said, Russia was crushing the AFU and has recently been in the best position of the entire SMO. Why would something like this happen now, if it were legitimate? It simply defies belief that Prigozhin would be so incensed about all the “failings” of the MOD at the time of the MOD’s singularly greatest glory on the battlefield. The only explanation in that case would be—as I said before—that Prigozhin knew his time was up as the MOD was already planning on canning him, so it was “now or never” for him.
Thus we are not the only ones considering the "psyop" possibility . M.D. spotted and shared the following article from the U.K.'s Daily Express:
Exiled Wagner chief 'could attack Kyiv (sic) from Belarus' warns British general
Kyiv(sic, et passim) would be exposed to a brutal onslaught from Russia's more fearsome fighters if progozhin has taken his men with him, Lord Dannatt has warned.
Despite the radically destabilising impact of the Wagner Group's attempted coup yesterday, it may not spell victory for Ukraine in their ongoing conflict against Russia, after a top British military chief warned that hardened mercenaries may now attack Kyiv from Belarus.
Supposedly, men from the Wagner group who chose not to join the "coup" (and we'll get back to that very important point of whether it was a coup or not in a moment) are allowed to sign contracts with the Ministray of Defense, and thus to be integrated into the regular operational command structure of the Russian military. Even as I write this blog (on the Sunday prior to the Friday of its scheduled appearance), US Secretary of State Blinken Planken Plunken is on the radio, blathering on ridiculously about "cracks" in the Russian government. Apparently he didn't get the memo from Lord Dannatt. And that may be one of the objectives here, for if there are any cracks in the structure, they would appear to be mostly in the west.
After all, we were told this was a "coup" and that Wagner's troops were on the road to Moscow. But frankly, I kept waiting to see videos of the columns, which never appeared. Nor would such a stunt be of any real military value to an attempted coup. It would only have made for a lot of easy targets. And as for the business of this being a "coup", I and many many others kept noticing that during Mr. Prigozhin's video-recorded rants and Khrushchev impressions, that there was never a mention of the head of the Russian State and Government by name: Mr. Putin was curiously absent from Prigozhin's bile. As one commentator put it, this has more the characteristic of a mutiny against a local command than a national coup d'etat. So the end result is, it is the West that is more confused than ever, and Mr. Putin is still very much in power, leaving the West to guess, ala this article in Forbes:
The Wagner Mutiny: Was It Genuine Or Choreographed? And What Now?
IN the Forbes article we learn basically nothing but a history lesson, which anyone familiar with Russian history will already know: is Russia capable of committing colossal acts of world-deceiving and seemingly mindless and pointless deception? Answer, yes:
It's almost impossible to determine the authenticity of any political incident in Russia these days - the effect of Putin's disinformation wars over decades. To adapt Pomeranzev's famous book title, in Russia everything is possible and nothing is real. It seems, at first glance, to be highly improbable that what we witnessed, the breakout of Wagner and their unimpeded march on Moscow, ending with Prigozhin's deal to retire in Belarus – it seems unlikely that any such chaotic sequence of events was choreographed. What could possibly be the point? What was achieved? We'll get to that but let's keep in mind that, if it was a kind of kabuki, this sort of mind-bend is nothing new in Russian history going back to Czarist times. Take a look at Lermontov's classic 19th century novel about the Caucasus, A Hero Of Our Time – all about the deliberate befogging of reality by authorities to the point of inducing widespread paranoia as an instrument of rule.
Then, also, Stalin allowed mini-rebellions to occur so as to determine who posed a threat to his power. He would disappear from office without explanation for a few weeks and whatever began to emerge from the undergrowth to take over would be ruthlessly culled. The Putin approach is slightly different. He has always encouraged internal enmity and jockeying among the Siloviki, the Boyars of our day, with him acting as referee. He uses one side to keep the others in check. If you don't know that, Prigozhin's case might seem mystifying because Prigo has publicly blurted searing truths to power for weeks and months without being muted or punished. Putin clearly found that tolerable, even useful, otherwise Wagner assets and information channels would have suffered before now.
US intelligence analysts, according to the Washington Post, knew of Prigozhin's plans to rebel since mid-June. If they knew, you can be sure Moscow did. But the Kremlin did nothing to stop him early.
Then there's Prigozhin himself, and the precarious position this "deal" puts him in:
And what if it was all an authentic act of mutiny? To what end? If Prigo planned this for two months, he surely didn't intend all along to end up alone in Belarus. Did Prigo merely want to extract his fighters and transfer them to some country in Africa where he could live like Joseph Conrad's Mister Kurtz, all powerful and tyrannical? If so, why ultimately abandon them wholesale? And he surely doesn't believe he will be allowed to live out his days peacefully in Belarus. If the FSB doesn't defenestrate him there one day, a Ukrainian hit squad certainly will. Will he keep his mouth shut in exile – is that part of the deal? Because if he doesn't he won't last long. There's no chance that Lukashenko will protect a publicly ranting Prigo who constantly offends the Kremlin.
But I want to suggest that Lord Dannatt may be on to something, something suggested not by articles, but by looking at this map, shared by P.V.:
Think about it: by having Prigozhin "go crazy" and record his craziness for the whole world to see, and by exiling him to Byelorussia/Belarus, while allegedly regrafting the Wagner group into the Russian command structure, a new "mercenary" group can coalesce around Prigozhin, who can then "go off half-cocked" once again, and head directly for Kiev, while Moscow and Minsk can claim no knowledge or involvement. It's called "plausible deniability."
In short, among the many other possibilities surrounding this whole episode, there is always the possibility that the west has been had...
See you on the flip side...
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Dr. Farrell, you should try to get Scott Ritter on a podcast and discuss the Prigozhin “faux attempted coup.” I worked with Scott over in USSR / Russia from 1988-1991 as a member of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Missile (IMF) treaty. The Russians are standup folks, and of course they don’t trust “anyone” and why should they. Our INF Treaty modo from Ronald Reagen was “Trust but Verify!” Now that notion is gone forever, thanks Mr Global…you losers! 🙁
I think it was a psyop. Why? I think because of the martial law, and large-scale mobilization. They need more men, as the conflict soon starts to spread. Kreml needs to sell the idea of the martial law to the public, and I think they just sold it.
Russia will soon terminate all diplomatic relations between Finland, Poland and The Baltic states. I firmly believe so. I think they will do it, before the winter time.
Well, well, well! President Biden is flying across the pond to have tea ☕ with King Charles III on July 10 at Windsor Castle. Tell Biden to take care he doesn’t slip and trip on the stone staircase! Presumably the US President is coming over to seek approval for unleashing WW3!
It was a brilliant Counter-Pivot by the Russians. The CIA tossed around a lot of money for this ‘coup’ to happen. Perfect way to expose the corrupt people inside of the Russian Military. This has been done before with the ‘Red Mercury’ Op back in the late 1980’s. The “Red Mercury” turned out to be nothing more that simple clay with red food coloring.
Come to think of it, would anyone like some Yellow Cake while we watch this all unfold?
Did anyone check out Sat Yooga Institute the “Zen psyop “? It’s another very interesting take on this. It’s on YT
“The Great Zen Psyop”. Is Sat Yoga Institute title, still on YT
Earlier in the week (Monday) during his podcast Dinesh D’Souza came up with a similar idea that this was a theatrical play for Vladimir Putin to flush out his enemies from within his circle. If they knew or suspected Putin was losing or was weakening they would show their hands and then when Prigozhin stopped and turned back he would know. D’Souza asked why were no bullets fired, no lives lost and allowed to get so close to Moscow? Yet Prigozhin was allowed to return after ‘negotiations’ with Belarusia for safe passage under ‘supervised’ guard there? Putin was no person who just freely or wantonly forgave traitors so why was Prigozhin allowed to go to Belarusia so easily? It made no sense.
Scandinavia is Protestant, whereas Poland is Catholic. Since the Reformation, Scandinavians know, that Catholics can’t be trusted, because they subscribe to the pope.
We know, that the Vatican controls the Jesuits, who control Freemasonry, that controls NATO. It means, that the Vatican is crusading in the Ukraine, by proxy.
Catholic Poland could invade Belarus, to support Kiev, which would isolate Kaliningrad, and bring NATO into direct confrontation with Russia, which means nuclear war.
Wagnerian presence in Belarus is a deterrent, brought about through a teapot tempest, as not to be accused of building up forces on the Polish border, which could escalate.
Never trust a Catholic, because Jesuits are sneaky, and their end justify the means.
You need him alive if you want to interrogate him.
“But recall, as I’ve stated before, there are two opposing camps in the West—the hardliners and the ‘sane’ crowd. The hardliners will continue pushing for escalation because their masters at the top of the elite pyramid will never allow Russia to secure any type of decisive victory, no matter how many people die, because for them it is existential. With Russia’s victory will come the eventual collapse of the entire Western order, which means the hundreds of years old banking cabal that has ruled the globe with an iron fist. Those ancient families at the top cannot allow Russia to win.”
Source: Simplicius the Thinker
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-63023-winds-gather-before
Thanks. This is an interesting article.
Further down in the article, there is reference to Putin’s much celebrated visit to Derbent, at the Caspian Sea, which is of great archeo-geopolitical interest.
Derbent is one of two passages through the Caucasus Mountains, and the other is Darial Gorge, through which the Scythians poured, like fermented mare-milk from hell.
One can say, that Russia was an early Scythian training camp, that gave birth to the steppe warrior, who, a millennium later, became the Scandinavian Viking.
In addition to the questions below, my simple question is who was supplying the fuel for the transportation of tanks and other vehicles over a distance of 1100 km to Moscow??? Are there NATO partners in Russia providing the fuel, and no expected airstrikes from Russia? This simple question immediately had me classified the whole story as fake news.
The map, as shared by P.V. (in Joseph’s post, not the comments), does not load for me – is it working for others?
Not working for me either. Perhaps someone will post a link to it in a Reply.
I think Prigozhin is a jumped up criminal who lucked out in the early 1990s by being noticed and then “run” by an ex-intelligence officer who wound up being the chief executive of the Russian govt.
Prigozhin’s bizarre treacherous behavior is nothing unusual for mercenaries, Machiavelli warned against using them 500 years ago. Mercenaries often turn against the people who hired them. The Germanic Angles, Saxons, Jutes were brought into Britain after the Roman legions left, to protect the Romanized British from barbarians – then they took over
As for Russian intelligence (GRU) controlling Wagner… really? Those videos he posted to the world berating Russian military leaders were bizarre and should have gotten him arrested immediately. His wasting of troops lives in Bahkmut was more of a criminal stunt than a professional military operation.
Russian intelligence? The 2014 Ukraine Maidan coup happened right under their nose. The following eight years were filled with the West installing political “leaders”, filling Ukraine with weapons, and training cadres of troops in the use of Javelins, NLAWS, etc. that destroyed whole columns of Russian AFVs in early 2022.
The mounting danger is that someone hardcore is going to take control in Russia, and these twerps and tw-ts in Washington won’t understand what they are dealing with and we’ll be in a real war with www2 levels of casualties, or much worse.
Many people believe the world has reached a tipping point. It is time to throw the pieces on the board game into the air and start afresh. President Biden is clueless and has difficulty walking up stairs or across podiums without tripping over. Our UK Prime Minister is a multi millionaire who talks the talk but is incapable of walking it. Putin does what he says and calls a spade a spade! I think US and NATO should offer a truce in return for letting Crimea belong to Russia. Of course they are fools and won’t budge! So Putin will let the genie out the bottle.
I’ve read Russians claim that Wagner recruitment centers in Russia are operating business as usual. Very telling if true.
I would like to comment on the post but can’t figure out how. So, for what it’s worth, here are my observations: 1) Prigo took 8,000 Wagnerites with him to Belarus. Lukashenko is setting up 4 camps for Wagner at 6,000 men each … thats 24k plus 8k … the approximate number of fighting men as Wagner had in the SMO. 2) If Lukashenko did not want Prigozhin and Wagner ‘in-house’, they would not have been invited. Period. 3) Prigo said only 1 to 2% of Wagnerites wanted to sign contracts with the Russian MOD — this seems credible to me. I think Wagner is going to be reconstituted under a different name/corporate identity; no way do I think Prigozhin is either “in exile” nor will he “retire”. The benefits of having the world’s best combined-arms fighting unit — intensely loyal to Russia — (Col Douglas Macgregor’s words, not mine) …. operational, WAY outweighs any downside. 4) Robert Barnes said ‘Maskirovka’ the Russian art of military deception, is taught in every military academy since the time of the Tsars. This particular Maskirovka did indeed unearth and identify anti-Putin groups and individuals throughout Russia. Just in time for the latest missile attack that took out @250 Ukrainian officers, generals, NATO ‘advisors’, etc. Coincidence (???) …. I don’t think so. 5) Wagner is NOT, and never has been, a mercenary group. Blackwater et.al. IS a mercenary organization …. Wagner is NOT. Cogitate on that idea for awhile (!!) They are fighting on OUR behalf against globalist suck ups, around the globe. GoBearsZ.
There’s also the complicating factor that NATO is having a summit in Lithuania in July, which some have said from Putin’s most recent speech, is seen as an existential threat by the RF. Many have said with NATO in Lithuania the potential exists for a false flag to expand the war, as the neocon West has wanted to do.
And though it doesn’t apply to Russia or Ukraine, the riots in France must be making some nervous…
A few questions:
What exactly is the modus operandi of Concord Management and Consulting? Wikipedia’s info is not enough for me. Why did Prigozhin give his share to his wife?
Is Prigozhin really the head of the Wagner Group, or is he more of a PR agent, when in reality Dmitry Utkin is calling the shots?
What military skills does Prigozhin have to lead Wagner?
What is Utkin’s relationship with Prigozhin?
Is Prigozhin sane? A megalomaniac? His melodramatic statements in the past seemed borderline, unprofessional for someone in his position.
Is it true what Ramzan Kadyrov wrote that Prigozhin was furious that his daughter was denied the purchase of a plot of land in St. Petersburg? Short-circuit reaction?
I ask because this “coup” seems to me extremely amateurish and unpatriotic in the current situation by a self-proclaimed patriot, Prigozhin.
From a different perspective:
How can you „overvalue“ military aid sent to Ukraine by billions? Where is the money?
Was the „coup“ financed by a foreign country with a plan to overthrow Vladimir Putin?
Somebody said that Utkin and Prigozhin are laughing all the way to the bank on BVI. Is that true?
I think it is amusing – and tragic – how American minds try to make sense of European affairs, that are in a constant state of flux. European rigidity is based on firm principles, and beyond that, there are just laughs and giggles, behind the masquerade.
Americans, who have no defined principles, no rooted framework, become extremely rigid, in an attempt to categorise the beyond. Obviously, culture went amiss, fell overboard, on the voyage to the New World. The shamanic mind travels in all directions simultaneously.
In my experience, Americans become instinctively jealous, when I demonstrate the genius fluidity of the bardic trade. In a zero-sum game, Americans will have to bring down the European bards, to be able to claim themselves victorious, over Abel’s dead corpse.
Is it really beyond the American imagination, to grasp, that the Russians are actually reshaping military strategy, by the poetic fluidity of the Volga river? Have Americans forgotten Mark Twain and the Mississippi?
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/gl1vuphsfgrk0kl/volga.mp4
Recap, all wrong.
How so? I’m not pro or con to either post at this point.
Something went wrong, Don. My reply went to Anakephalaiosis.
uh, okay mirkogordan.
The time-honoured practice of deception is called Maskirovka in Russian, and – though of course events may prove me wrong – this psyop will not give rise to an old-fashioned, costly “arrow offensive” on Kiev, though it has undoubtedly been the cover for various redeployments. But there may come a point when no amount of debt-fuelled dollars and ineffective equipment will prevent that city from dropping into the proverbial basket like a ripe pear.
Russians don’t wag the dog, because they walk the dog. In chess, it’s called castling.
The short of the long is, that the Russian tea-party, in the “Potemkin Village”, was done by redskins dressed up as Wagnerians, throwing a teapot in Dnieper, whereafter heading for Sherwood, in outskirts of Minsk, plotting to rob the sheriff of Kiev, who is stealing orthodox silver from poor farmers.
As military tactics, “Potemkin Village” is a ballet, dancing off with the faeries, performed by the Bolshoi Theatre.
The White House Press Briefing earlier this week, is essential reading to understand and disect the United States official narrative on the theatrical events performed by Prigozhin. It seems a lot is being held back from the public. Yet, it is ultimately US taxpayers who are principally financing the war in Ukraine to the sum of $Billions. Surely you have a right to know?
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2023/06/26/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-and-nsc-coordinator-for-strategic-communications-john-kirby-17/