This important article was shared by Mr. C.S., and while quite long, it offers its own high octane scenario for the options available to Washington in the Middle East quagmire that the Syrian crisis has become. As usual,I have my own high octane speculations, but those will have to wait until after the article:
So what's my own high octane speculation here?
Note the final paragraphs of Mr. Whitney's analysis, and his own high octane speculation:
We continue to believe that the US-Kurdish (YPG) alliance does not really advance US strategic interests in Syria. The US is not interested in Kurdish statehood nor do they care if jihadist militias control the northern quadrant of Syria’s border-region. The real purpose of the US-YPG alliance is to enrage Turkey and provoke them into a cross-border conflict with the Russian-led coalition. If Turkey deploys ground troops to Syria, then Moscow could face the quagmire it has tried so hard to avoid. Turkish forces would serve as a replacement army for the US-backed jihadists and other proxies that have prosecuted the war for the last five years but now appear to be in full retreat.
More importantly, a Turkish invasion would exacerbate divisions inside Turkey seriously eroding Erdogan’s grip on power while creating vulnerabilities the US could exploit by working with its agents in the Turkish military and Intel agency (MIT). The ultimate objective would be to foment sufficient social unrest to incite a color-coded revolution that would dispose of the troublemaking Erdogan in a Washington-orchestrated coup, much like the one the CIA executed in Kiev.
It is not hard to imagine Obama secretly giving Erdogan the greenlight, and then pulling the rug out from under him as soon as his troops crossed over into Syria. A similar scam was carried out in 1990 when U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, April Glaspie, gave Saddam Hussein the nod to invade Kuwait. The Iraqi Army had barely reached its destination before the US launched a massive military campaign (Operation Desert Storm) that forced Saddam to speedily withdraw along the infamous Highway of Death where upwards of 10,000 Iraqi regulars were annihilated like sitting ducks in a vicious and homicidal display of American firepower. That was the first phase of Washington’s plan to overthrow Saddam and replace him with a compliant Arab stooge.
Is the same regime change trap now being set for Erdogan?
It sure looks like it.
This scenario makes sense, for it's a typical example of orchestrating events to accomplish several objectives at once. In this case,(1)to embroil Russia in a quagmire, and (2) to get rid of an increasingly dangerous regime in Ankara.
But there are other necessary contexts to watch here, among them, the growing "entente" that geopolitical analysts have been watching between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Indeed, there has been increased talk and speculation about an actual Saudi military intervention in Syria, and there are already rumors that both countries have deployed military assets in Lebanon. Whether that last rumor is true or not, the entente between Ankara and Riyadh suggests that Mr. Whitney's regime change scenario might not be constrained to Ankara. Riyadh faces its own internal struggles between the Suni Wahabbists that brutally rule that nation, and the significant Shia population that, not surprisingly, dwells in the kingdom's oil fields. Viewed in this light, the American policy in the Middle East looks less like incompetence, and more and more like cold calculation: the chaos appears increasingly deliberate, designed to inflame internal and ancient tensions in the Islamic world, all for the purpose of weakening the region and allowing greater and easier western dominance. While the West has yet to play the "human rights" card, and has looked away from the genocide against Christians and other non-Muslim populations in the region, that card remains to be played, and if played, if could conceivably reinvogorate domestic support in the West for its continued military presence.
There's also another context lurking in the background, and it is a little-mentioned though important one. More and more, stories continue to surface that indicate that big changes are coming in the way the world produces and accesses energy - fusion being the story most recently in evidence. A sudden introduction of such technologies would possibly (and in my opinion very probably) provoke the nutty regimes of that region into precipitate and dangerous action, as the basis of their wealth and power would suddenly be eroded. A policy of managed transition has to have been considered by the western "powers that be," and that policy would most likely have settled upon the creation of chaos, to weaken those regimes, dispell any long term threat, and ultimately, to manage the transition.
Of course, all of this depends on Russia obliging the West by becoming embroiled in the quagmire, and that's the problem. Mr. Putin has demonstrated that he and his advisors are no fools. And if Washington plays the Turkey card, and Sultan Erdogan is foolish enough to fall for it(which it appears he is not), then Russia will probably settle matters quickly and decisively, leaving Turkey bereft of a military.
Think of Thanksgiving here, and roast Turkey.
See you on the flip side...