REGIME CHANGE SCENARIO IN ANKARA?

REGIME CHANGE SCENARIO IN ANKARA?

This important article was shared by Mr. C.S., and while quite long, it offers its own high octane scenario for the options available to Washington in the Middle East quagmire that the Syrian crisis has become. As usual,I have my own high octane speculations, but those will have to wait until after the article:

Regime Change in Ankara? More Likely Than You Think

So what's my own high octane speculation here?

Note the final paragraphs of Mr. Whitney's analysis, and his own high octane speculation:

We continue to believe that the US-Kurdish (YPG) alliance does not really advance US strategic interests in Syria. The US is not interested in Kurdish statehood nor do they care if jihadist militias control the northern quadrant of Syria’s border-region. The real purpose of the US-YPG alliance is to enrage Turkey and provoke them into a cross-border conflict with the Russian-led coalition. If Turkey deploys ground troops to Syria, then Moscow could face the quagmire it has tried so hard to avoid. Turkish forces would serve as a replacement army for the US-backed jihadists and other proxies that have prosecuted the war for the last five years but now appear to be in full retreat.

More importantly, a Turkish invasion would exacerbate divisions inside Turkey seriously eroding Erdogan’s grip on power while creating vulnerabilities the US could exploit by working with its agents in the Turkish military and Intel agency (MIT). The ultimate objective would be to foment sufficient social unrest to incite a color-coded revolution that would dispose of the troublemaking Erdogan in a Washington-orchestrated coup, much like the one the CIA executed in Kiev.

It is not hard to imagine Obama secretly giving Erdogan the greenlight, and then pulling the rug out from under him as soon as his troops crossed over into Syria.  A similar scam was carried out in 1990 when U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, April Glaspie, gave Saddam Hussein the nod to invade Kuwait. The Iraqi Army had barely reached its destination before the US launched a massive military campaign (Operation Desert Storm) that forced Saddam to speedily withdraw along the infamous Highway of Death where upwards of 10,000 Iraqi regulars were annihilated like sitting ducks in a vicious and homicidal display of American firepower.   That was the first phase of Washington’s plan to overthrow Saddam and replace him with a compliant Arab stooge.

Is the same regime change trap now being set for Erdogan?

It sure looks like it.

This scenario makes sense, for it's a typical example of orchestrating events to accomplish several objectives at once. In this case,(1)to embroil Russia in a quagmire, and (2) to get rid of an increasingly dangerous regime in Ankara.

But there are other necessary contexts to watch here, among them, the growing "entente" that geopolitical analysts have been watching between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Indeed, there has been increased talk and speculation about an actual Saudi military intervention in Syria, and there are already rumors that both countries have deployed military assets in Lebanon. Whether that last rumor is true or not, the entente between Ankara and Riyadh suggests that Mr. Whitney's regime change scenario might not be constrained to Ankara. Riyadh faces its own internal struggles between the Suni Wahabbists that brutally rule that nation, and the significant Shia population that, not surprisingly, dwells in the kingdom's oil fields.  Viewed in this light, the American policy in the Middle East looks less like incompetence, and more and more like cold calculation: the chaos appears increasingly deliberate, designed to inflame internal and ancient tensions in the Islamic world, all for the purpose of weakening the region and allowing greater and easier western dominance. While the West has yet to play the "human rights" card, and has looked away from the genocide against Christians and other non-Muslim populations in the region, that card remains to be played, and if played, if could conceivably reinvogorate domestic support in the West for its continued military presence.

There's also another context lurking in the background, and it is a little-mentioned though important one. More and more, stories continue to surface that indicate that big changes are coming in the way the world produces and accesses energy - fusion being the story most recently in evidence. A sudden introduction of such technologies would possibly (and in my opinion very probably) provoke the nutty regimes of that region into precipitate and dangerous action, as the basis of their wealth and power would suddenly be eroded. A policy of managed transition has to have been considered by the western "powers that be," and that policy would most likely have settled upon the creation of chaos, to weaken those regimes, dispell any long term threat, and ultimately, to manage the transition.

Of course, all of this depends on Russia obliging the West by becoming embroiled in the quagmire, and that's the problem. Mr. Putin has demonstrated that he and his advisors are no fools. And if Washington plays the Turkey card, and Sultan Erdogan is foolish enough to fall for it(which it appears he is not), then Russia will probably settle matters quickly and decisively, leaving Turkey bereft of a military.

Think of Thanksgiving here, and roast Turkey.

See you on the flip side...

27 thoughts on “REGIME CHANGE SCENARIO IN ANKARA?”

  1. May be useful to note that Rossi, who is perhaps closest to a commercial-grade LENR device, as mentioned that his e-cat would have to be integrated into existing energy sources or “it would be killed.” I agree with the comment above that the roll out with cover stories for new electrics will be controlled in such a way to maintain the long-established distributed-energy platforms and prevent people taking homes and businesses off the grid. In other words, let the technology out but prevent its full implementation.

    1. CNBC: “A production cut is plainly good for all oil exporting countries, with a payback of 4-8 times the value of production cuts.”

      Guess who loses, outside the oil exporting countries? Why, the general public, of course. But, the Saudi princes need their Ferrari’s. The general public be damned…

      I would love it if the Iranians put the shaft to Saudi monopoly plans. I hate cartels…

  2. An irresistible metaphor.
    Fattening-Up Turkey/Saudi Arabia for the final stroke:
    A beheading
    – So apropos; like the Native Americans that provided the legendary wherewithal feast, with an ironic Thanksgiving genocide slow-motion-twist, as a return for? Thanks for giving us your trust?

    So metaphorically correct, in today’s Hollywooded:
    Mad, Mad, Mad World.

    1. When I was watching a couple of movies around the first years of Jamestown, Virginia, it became clear about the pivotal ‘role’ of Pocahontas. Most of the Indian males were either content with letting the settlers die-off due to ignorance or helping-them-along with their dying-off. Pocahontas basically helped the settlers make it through their first winter. Otherwise, it would have been another Roanoke.

      European settlers would probably have colonized the eastern seaboard, eventually. But, it would have been interesting if they had to come up from Florida and down from Massachusetts. Would this have given Native Americans time to ‘size-up’ the colonists and even form some kind of League to resist?

      Pocahontas’ ‘heart’ was pivotal in the fate of her people, for better or worse…

      1. Goshawks
        Ironic that Pocahontas was the wink link: the human[if one considers her humanity]. Ironic, because in today’s society from the military[human: weak link in the kill-chain]; finance[human: weak link in the high frequency stock market manipulations]; and in the factories and in; well you name. Ironic, that she blazed an unknowing trend, for those – not yet blinded by future technologies changing the very nature of mankind. Changing what is human.

  3. There is a mechanism in Turkey that can facilitate rapid change of government. Under the original form of the Turkish Constitution it is the military’s sacred duty to drive Islamists out of power in order to preserve the secular state. At least half of Turks see this as essential if the secular order is to prevail. Erdogan has been dismantling things bit by bit, but the choice between removing Erdogan will be a simple one for the military.

    The military in Turkey… how to say this charitably… they see their primary role as a check on the political governance rather than as a force to engage in open warfare. They are a legitimate force in Turkish experience for the maintaining of the secular order, and Turks know that their job is to remove a dangerous government and dangerous elements that threaten the secular state.

    So the military removes Erdogan, his government ministers, arrests the members of Erdogan’s political party, closes all mosques associated with the party, and bans the party and anyone associated with it from having anything to do with elected office, the military, or the judiciary. Easy.

    After a period of custodianship in which Ataturk’s Order is restored… then free elections can be held … in which a hardline secularist will be elected … quite possibly a woman … and that will be that.

    The end of the House of Saud will be a far messier matter, but in the end I would expect Mecca and Medina together with surrounding and intervening territory will be given to the King of Jordan, an Arab Shia state will emerge in part of the Saudi territory, and the rest will be the crumbling remains of the Wahhabist homeland … may it rust in peace.

    1. Pellevoisin, your commentary reminds me of the military vs Muslim Brotherhood ‘standoff’ in Egypt. It would appear that those are the two ‘poles’ in much of the Middle East. Not much (at least with any power) in the middle. This is an indication of just how hard it is to fashion (and hold) a democracy…

      It is ironic that the Turkish military are faced with a ‘George Washington’ dilemma. If they seize power, voices will be raised to make the new ‘victor’ a King, Emperor, or Caliph. Napoleon’s choice. It takes a person of exceptional values or inner strength to be a steward and not a monarch.

      Your ‘dream’ of redrawing Saudi Arabia and Jordan sounds valid and fair. We will see. I would also like to see the poor Kurds have a homeland, drawn from their traditional homelands in 3-4 countries. Of course, if they get it, they will have to deal-with one ME country who will want to make them a vassal-state…

  4. Just heard rumors that Deutsche Bank requires a totally new structure due mostly to catastrophic derivative exposure, with the knock on effects heard especially in European Banks (RBS, Santander, Societe General, Intesa Sanpaolo) and that Saudi Arabia is being set up for total take down so that their $US 3-5 trillion in US treasuries–petrodollar proceeds– on deposit with the Exchange Stabilization Fund can be seized and eliminated as a US liability.

    I can’t demonstrate the validity of the latter, but I felt a real chill when I realized how much sense it made.

    1. Why not? ‘Debt removal’ worked for King Philip IV (‘the Fair’)…

      Philip had gotten in major arrears with the Knights Templar, due to his incessant war-faring. His machinations with a Pope under his leash brought down the Templars, and canceled his virtually-unpayable debt to them. (Philip even tried to grab the Templar treasury, but that ‘prize’ got away at La Rochelle…)

      Saudi Arabia?

      1. Well, I tripped the “Your comment is awaiting moderation” switch, again. I will let you know when the Comment reappears or is disappeared. goshawks – February 27, 2016 at 10:55 pm.

  5. One great problem the CSA is really Sparta and energy and mineral resources are only excuses for what they want. To torture, kill, cripple male, female, children of every species on this planet. Turkey and the rest of Western Asia Africa are just the latest victims of these sadists.

  6. If indeed there is a shift to what Clif High of HPH has been calling the “New Electrics”, then the explanation of these new technologies will need cover stories. The fly in the ointment will be those of us that know, OU, ZPE, Cold Fusion are in reality “antique technologies”. By where their suppression was an excuse to promulgate wars for “Strategic Resources” and keep the Military, Oil Industrial Complex at the apex of harvesting the planet. The PTB face the same dilemma in the “Disclosure” department as well.

    1. Agree. ‘New Energy’ = ‘Old Energy.’ However, the genie is now escaping. BRICS also have “New+” energy tech. Many scenarios in the works. For now, am discounting Wilckock/Goode-like ‘Full Disclosure,’ although I’d certainly prefer it. However, if no WW3, then SSP Conference type energy tech may soon enter the market. Cheap energy will revolutionize global economics, money & banking — more so than computers ever did.

  7. The tried-and-true, Chao ab ordo it will be, as there is no reason (at least from its own “exceptional” perspective) for the US to expend the immense effort to formulate a coherent policy — and perhaps suffer a stroke from the intensity of the challenge — that could conceivably benefit anyone but its fatcats and vested interests.

  8. This will be interesting to watch play out , I don’t think Russia will fall for it ,however as far as the new fusion energies coming online that would definetly be a game changer and could accomplish what chaos can not simply becouse of the power loss to the ME

  9. Keep in mind that the mental stability of the leaders of these two nations has been called into question and that the military of Turkey, at least, has expressed a desire to NOT face Russia and the Saudi military just isn’t capable of it as they are embroiled in Yemen. While this is just the type of backstabbing the West likes to play, the wild card here is Russia, and Putin isn’t playing games.

    1. Another thought comes to mind, also. Every technology that has threatened big oils dominance has been bought and suppressed by them. Unless this comes from another nation such as Russia or China it may also suffer the same fate.

      1. I agree, but times they are changing and there are new players on the block, like Elon Musk, who are not interested in being bought off, he is full in on new technology. Also note all the big money players who are divesting their portfolios of oil. Change is coming this time.

    2. putin might be playing games that aren’t yet calculated in to this conversation. remember his recent meetings with his old friend heinrich (kissinger)?

      seems that mr global and his kabuki main players ussa in particular are learning more and exercising more w’s old trademark strategic skill of being misunderestimated. bubba w was and is an evil genius who even today is considered far stupider than any human can be – even with his drug running and fetal alcohol syndrome. amazing how easily his inhumanity was portrayed as stupidity and not so much psychopathy.

      either way it sounds like doc is right. thanksgiving dinner might be coming early in 2016.

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