Many people sent this story to me this past week, and while it may seem a bit "low key", I submit that when one thinks about its implications, it's a stunner.
What's the story? Well, the German army is wargaming a break up of the European Union in its recent drills:
The drills and wargames apparently come from a recent strategic analysis undertaken by the German military, presumably classified but (somehow) acquired by Germany's Der Spiegel magazine. The report is titled "Strategic Perspective 2040" and outlines a number of scenarios, in which, according to the Zero Hedge article, we find the following scenario:
In one of the six scenarios ("The EU in Disintegration and Germany in Reactive Mode"), the authors assume a "multiple confrontation".The future projection describes a world in which the international order erodes after "decades of instability", the value systems worldwide diverge and globalization is stopped.
"The EU enlargement has been largely abandoned, other states have left the community Europe has lost its global competitiveness," write the Bundeswehr strategists:
"The increasingly disorderly, sometimes chaotic and conflict-prone world has dramatically changed the security environment of Germany and Europe."
In the fifth scenario ("West to the East"), some eastern EU countries are freezing the state of European integration while others have "joined the Eastern bloc".
Now, there's two very interesting things to note about this report, which, according to the Daily Telegraph article, remains substantially secret. Firstly, the German military's analysis is (apparently) ignoring the geopolitical and economic realities, since it is listing a growing integration with "the Eastern bloc," i.e., Russia. This I find immensely curious since by all reckoning, the German business community has been quite unhappy with the sanctions regime against Russia, Europe's, and Germany's principal energy supplier. Notably, the target of this concern is not Russia itself, but rather, the states of Eastern Europe, which, incidentally, have been opposed to Berlin's and Brussel's "refugee policies." In short, the document appears to be coming from the perspective of "globalism", "Atlanticism," and "European integration." Which brings us to the real and second concern: what does Germany do if the EU does crack apart?
What's intriguing to note here is a curious lack in the reportage of this story: there's no mention whatsoever of European military integration, not even with France, which has been, like Germany, in the forefront of advocating a common European military. I've blogged about this story before in this website, noting the mergers of large German and French defense contractors as a prelude to the creation of that integrated military. In other words, the document is assuming a complete breakdown of integration. Which leaves one wondering what, exactly, the German military would view as being in the country's security interests. Again, there is a curious lack of mention here, so we're left to speculate.
Which takes me back to some curious remarks made by the late Chancellor Helmut Kohl (mentor, let it be recalled, of Mad Madam Merkel) as the Warsaw Pact was collapsing and the former members of the Eastern bloc were being "integrated" into Europe. This remark, in fact, I mentioned in my book The Nazi International: Kohl informed the Czech republic and other former Warsaw pact members that it was either integration, or that Germany would be forced to solve the problem of Mitteleuropa "in the traditional way," a remark that has the ring of US Defense Secretary Robert Gates' remarks to Japan regarding Okinawa, made just before the Fukushima disaster.
Kohl's remarks suggest the heart of the concerns of the German military in the event of an EU crackup: Germany would, by the nature of the case, almost have to re-introduce the old "Snake", the "European Exchange Rate Mechanism" that pegged the currencies of the Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, Luxembourg, and the Czech republic to the Deutschmark. In short, Germany would seek, if not European-wide integration, then a limited version of it composing central Europe for the simple reason that it would have to secure some European markets. And that would include integration with the militaries of those countries...
... and surprise surprise, if you've been following this story, you'll be aware that already elements of the Dutch and Czech militaries have placed certain units in the Bundeswehr's chain of command.
And all that suggests is that some in the corridors of power in Berlin have drawn some unpleasant conclusions about the long term prospects of "Europe."
See you on the flip side...